Iran's Raisi Criticized For Saying Government Coffers Are Empty

Khamenei has delivered several speeches since the beginning of October and has not mentioned the nuclear talks and has refrained from his usual attacks on the United States. The last time he mentioned the United States was in a speech on October 3, when he spoke of the US role in Afghanistan.

Khamenei’s tactic of avoiding subjects related to the core of his foreign policy might be intended to show that he does not interfere in the business of the government, after foreign media and officials increasingly acknowledge his role as the final decision maker in important matters.

The only noteworthy part of his speech was his insistence to “tell the truth” about the history of the Islamic Republic and how much enmity has existed against the regime. He said that if supporters do not spread the truth, “the enemy will play the role of a victim.”

He also claimed in an implicit reference to the US that “arrogant powers” enjoy “the suffering of the Iranian nation.”

President Ebrahim Raisi (Raeesi) went to parliament on Sunday to present his budget for the coming Iranian calendar year that will begin on March 21, 2022. Except some general budgetary numbers, details are scarce and it is not clear how the government is planning to deal with a growing deficit that this year is estimated to be more than 50 percent.

But one deficit-fighting measure is to stop providing cheap dollars to importers of essential goods, saving around $8 billion annually. The problem is that many in parliament, economists and politicians say this would add fuel to inflation, which has already reached 45 percent this year.

Just before the United States pulled out of the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA) in May 2018, the former Iranian president Hassan Rouhani decided to offer dollars at 42,000 rials for essential imports to keep food and medicine cheap. Iran’s currency was already falling in anticipation of the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and new sanctions.

The subsidized dollars however did little to keep prices low, as imported grain, rice, sugar and animal feed reached consumers with ever higher prices. Simply, those importing the essential commodities and businesses in the supply chain pocketed huge profits. There were also proven cases of companies applying to receive the cheap dollars and then importing luxury goods, such as thousands of foreign cars.

US sanctions have dramatically reduced revenues for the Islamic Republic, which heavily depends on oil exports. Not only Tehran is getting a fraction of its usual oil income but trade in general has suffered because of US banking sanctions, forcing Iran to offer low prices and still struggling to bring back dollars earned.

Raisi claimed that past administration tied the fate of the country's economy to foreign sanctions, but his budget has ignored those restriction and will deliver health economic growth.

How the Raisi government has put together a budget that at least on paper is supposed to be balanced is shrouded in accounting gimmicks and over-optimistic assessments. It projects selling more than a million barrels of oil per day at around $60 per barrel, an over-estimation unless the United States lifts its sanctions. It also projects selling billions of dollars in government assets to raise money, but there is little no capital or confidence left among the people and investors for buying these assets.

Mostly politically well-connected people and officials who have either become rich or know others with money will scoop up some valuable real estate and other assets, at a fraction of their value. Quasi-governmental companies, such as those belonging to the Revolutionary Guard and foundations under Khamenei’s control will be well positioned to buy the cheap assets the government offers.

In practice, officials running these companies are like private owners, making money for themselves, their relatives and friends without any transparency and accountability. In the past 15 years most “privatization” deals have ended in stories of corruption, some exposed by dissatisfied workers or rival factions within the regime.

Other than unsubstantiated revenue numbers from oil and asset sales, the Raisi government has little else to balance its budget on paper.

The Chairman of Iran-China chamber of commerce Majid-Reza Hariri warned in November that Iran’s economy is “at its most dangerous period in its 40-year cycle of inflation” and can expect to reach “hyperinflation” in the coming months.

The note entitled "The movement which is no longer a movement," published on the Student Day, December 7, argued that like all student movements in the world Iran's students have also been idealist and anti-imperialist. They were always anti-American, particularly during the events of 1953 when three Tehran University students were killed by the police when they demonstrated against the visit of then-US Vice President Richard Nixon. They also revealed their opposition to the United States in November 1979 when Islamic students seized the US embassy in Tehran and took American hostages for 444 days.

However, the short article went on to argue that the student protests in June 1999, against the Islamic Republic’s suppressive measures, marked a change in the narrative of the student movement. Instead of being anti-West, the protests were aimed at the fundamentalist and totalitarian nature of the Islamic regime and supported ideas such as liberalism, feminism and pluralism as a reform movement was dawning in the country.

The violent crackdown on that protest and ten years later in 2009 against a rigged presidential election, totally changed the face of Iran's student movement as its leaders came under pressure in prison and others fled the country and gradually forgot about the student movement and what it stood for.

Readers commented under the article that Islamic Republic’s anti-Americanism and the anti-Western ideologies have prevented Iran’s progress in recent decades.

The editors of the website felt obliged to publish a new article, trying to defend why they had printed a report saying that students were no longer anti-West.

The new article quoted Iranian scholars such as Sadeq Zibakalam and Abdolhossein Khosrowpanah to prove that anti-Americanism has its roots in Communism but did not elaborate why anti-Americanism is the focal point in the ideas and speeches of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

A vivid example of how students and the youth have changed their political perspectives emerged this week, when President Ebrahim Raisi visited the Sharif University of Technology in Tehran.

One leading student, Mohammad Hossein Bayat addressed him by saying, “You got elected in the least competitive election in the history of the Islamic Republic, with the lowest rate of voter participation,” and warned, “We are speaking to you not as a president elected with the free vote of the people in a free election. We are speaking to you as a representative of the ruling system.” No mention of America or the West, as if the young man knew where exactly the country's problems were.

This squarely contradicted Khamenei’s constant anti-Western remarks that signal to his followers to chant “Death to America” and vow not to directly negotiate with “the great satan”.

Bayat also told Raisi that he represents a ruling system which “in the past 40 years has not opened a path for the progress of the people, despite the revolutionary ideals of freedom and justice.”

On Tuesday, several students lashed out at Raisi for his economic policies and his administration's approach to human rights, when he met them to mark Iran’s Student Day. An Islamist student harshly attacked him and the ruling elite during a public meeting in Tehran’s Sharif University of Technology.

Mohammad Hossein Bayat, the student who addressed Raisi as the leader of the Islamic Association, told him in all frankness:“You got elected in the least competitive election in the history of the Islamic Republic, with the lowest rate of voter participation.” He added, “We are speaking to you not as a president elected with the free vote of the people in a free election. We are speaking to you as a representative of the ruling system.”

Nonetheless, the press, particularly those such as the Iran Daily, owned by the Raisi administration, pretended in glamorous reports that the meeting was an opportunity for Raisi to present a report to students on his performance during the past four months.

Sara Shabani, a student whose picture appeared on the front-page of the daily while making a point during the meeting with Raisi, wrote in a December 9 tweet: "Presenting a report to students? As the person standing next to Raisi in this picture, I wish to say that he put some security-laden labels on the students in the auditorium and told them 'To repent for what they said.' Outside the auditorium, his answers to the students' questions were nothing but insults and humiliation. Do not try to fabricate beautiful pictures and headlines."

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Another student tweeted about the body language in the front-page picture: "The body language is interesting, both Raisi and the chancellor of the university are looking the other way while you are talking to him. Yet another student, Meysam, said that the entire meeting was a show for the media, otherwise individuals such as Raisi never care about the students and what they say.

The Raisi administration has already proven its naivety in the area of putting up "shows" for the media. In a video circulating on social media, his media team filmed the people in overcrowded Iranian taxis reacting to a mock radio news program that says Raisi has been killed in a helicopter crash during a provincial visit.Many of those who posted this video and those who commented on it pointed out that the video has been carefully "directed" and "edited" in a way to prove that young Iranians love Raisi.

While most of what appears to be criticism of Raisi and his administration by young people are about hypocrisy and lies, some media and politicians criticize him for his inaction in foreign and economic policies, co-opting unpopular pro-Ahmadinejad politicians in his cabinet and selecting the members of his team and lower layers of government managers from among his or his aides' relatives.

In one of the latest examples of such critiques, reformist political activist Majid Mohtashami pointed out in an interview with Arman daily on Thursday that the Raisi administration is an example of a populist governmentthat promises to build four million homes in four years.

Mohtashami said that meanwhile, the national currency has fallen 25 percent during Raisi’s first 100 days in office. He added that the president had promised a non-factional administration, but most of his men come from one hardliner group, while new faces in his government were chosen based on kinship rather than merits. This has made Raisi hostage to two oligarchies one made up of relatives and another one formed by the members of pro-Ahmadinejad Paydari Party.

The lawmaker involved has criticized parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf for retracting his support under public pressure.

Ali-Asghar Annabestani told Rouydad24 news website Wednesday Ghalibaf (Qalibaf) had acted from his “longing for presidency. "In January 2021, Annabestani was in a melee with a conscripted soldier, Abed Akbari, who was serving as a traffic cop in Tehran and stopped Annabestani’s car in a bus lane in a busy street.

The soldier took the matter to social media immediately, garnering backing from Twitterati and others, and later sued the lawmaker for slapping him. Although there was no conclusive footage, several witnesses backed Akbari’s account.

What was notable in the incident was the public's attitude of immediately believing the cop rather than the lawmaker. Many politicians seeing an opportunity to be on the popular side of an issue, demanded accountability from the lawmaker.

Annabestani first denied any altercation, and then admitted to "shoving" the warden after Akbari had insulted him. The parliament member made a public apology, but has denied there was any more to the incident.

Police spokesperson Mehdi Hajian said a few days after the fracas that the chief of law enforcement, Brigadier General Hossein Ashtari, had ordered the police’s legal department to defend the warden's rights, but Akbari later dropped his lawsuit, feeding speculation but not explaining why.

Ghalibaf revived the controversy Tuesday when asked about the case during a question-and-answer session with university students, when he backed Annabestani’s version of events.

The speaker noted it was better not to repeat “whatever we see” on social media. “Annabestani would have committed a crime if he had slapped the warden and should then have been punished," Ghalibaf noted. "He didn't slap the warden but shoved him."

The speaker's support first drew Annabestani’s praise and gratitude. But within hours Akbari took to an Instagram live session to suggest a court had accepted his claim that he had been slapped. He accused both the judiciary and parliament of protecting Annabestani.

After hearing this, Ghalibaf noted Annabestani had found guilty of "assault without causing bodily harm" and apologized in line with his “promise of honesty” to Iranians.

Ghalibaf’s shift was “hilarious,” Annabestani responded. “He has told me several times that he watched the traffic-camera footage of the incident released by the police and it did not look like slapping and showed shoving. Now, under media pressure, he is accusing me of lying."