Oil tanker crew safe after Iran seizes ship, vessel manager says

Senior Israeli officials cited in Israeli media reports in recent days allegedly warned that Trump's hawkish administration provided the last best chance to unseat Iran's clerical rulers, their arch-foe in the region.

The officials, the Jerusalem Post and Kan News reported, argued that Iran’s refusal to relinquish its nuclear program means the country's leadership needs to be dismantled.

“I don’t think it’s a game changer,” Hessami, a political science professor of Iranian origin said. “It may be a change in the rhetoric, but the reality on the ground doesn’t change.”

Hessami says even the way regime change is being framed is vague and inconsistent.

“If by regime change you mean Khamenei’s death, or a totally different form of government, or a friendly government, you have to ask the officials what they mean,” he said. “To me, it is more rhetoric than reality.”

Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons and accuses Israel and Western powers of undermining its sovereignty.

Heavy not finishing blows

The idea has surfaced as Israel reassesses its posture after Operation Rising Lion and the coordinated US strike, Operation Midnight Hammer.

Both operations dealt heavy blows to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure but did not alter the core structure of power inside the country.

Israeli intelligence is also warning that Iran is shifting key elements of its nuclear program underground. Officials say Tehran is building a hardened complex known as Pickaxe Mountain, far from any meaningful international oversight.

Intelligence assessments suggest Iran has also expanded its war planning and is preparing for the capability to fire up to two thousand missiles per day if attacked again.

'No regime change for air'

Still, Hessami argues that none of these developments make regime change more attainable.

The events of the twelve-day war in June, he says, showed the limits of military action. Israel destroyed command centers and killed senior Iranian officials, yet Iran’s political and security structure remained intact.

“You can win the war in seven days or seven weeks, but can you win the peace,” he said. “You cannot do regime change from the air.”

He adds that the assumption Israeli strikes would trigger mass unrest or fractures inside Iran misunderstands the country’s political psychology. Even Iranians who resent the system often resist foreign interference.

“People may be upset, but they don’t want a foreign government to determine what the next government should look like,” he said. “The structure of power was intact.”

Hessami draws parallels to past miscalculations in Iraq and Afghanistan, where outside powers relied on exiled voices or optimistic intelligence that did not reflect realities inside the country.

“They were led to believe there would be a revolution or a coup d’etat,” he said. “That hasn’t happened.”

While the alleged Israeli warning reflects rising anxiety over Iran’s nuclear acceleration, Hessami says the timeline being floated is detached from Iran’s entrenched institutions and from the global history of foreign intervention.

Mehdi Abbasi told the Didban-e Iran news site that “the issue is not who may have done this, but that all assumptions that could lead to harm must be identified.” 

Without naming Israel, he said “Experience has shown that with the relevant civil-defence tests, it is possible to thoroughly examine such equipment. And since there is always a possibility that our information could be transmitted abroad, we must consider the most dangerous scenarios and prepare ourselves to confront them.”

He said foreign devices used in urban monitoring systems “must pass multiple security filters” and that Tehran should minimize reliance on imported technology.

Abbasi said authorities should prioritize domestic production of traffic-camera systems, adding, “In a world where countries are either competing or hostile, we must strengthen our internal capabilities first.”

He also said the municipality “should have exercised greater oversight” of the equipment and warned that any technology with internet connectivity must undergo cybersecurity testing by Iran’s civil-defense units.

Iranian officials have not released technical details of the alleged data breach, but the issue has resurfaced repeatedly among senior figures following the 12-day war with Israel.

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  What we know about alleged Israeli strike on Iran's National Security Council

In September, a senior lawmaker claimed that Israel learned the location of a June 16 meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council through the country’s urban surveillance network.

“All the city cameras at our intersections are in the hands of Israel,” said Mahmoud Nabavian, a member of parliament’s national security committee. “Everything on the internet is in their hands – meaning that if we move, they find out.” 

Iranian media reported that the meeting – attended by the heads of the country’s three branches of power – was struck by six bombs or missiles, and that President Masoud Pezeshkian and several other officials suffered minor leg injuries while trying to escape.

Footage published from Abdanan, in Ilam province, showed torrents of water sweeping through residential districts and damaging roads and neighborhoods. 

Local officials said downpours in Abdanan and Dehloran led to overflowing waterways, the swelling of several rivers and the emergency evacuation of a number of families.

Relief teams from the Iranian Red Crescent were deployed to pump water out of flooded homes and clear blocked streets, authorities said. 

Damage assessments were continuing on Monday, with officials saying their immediate priority was helping families whose houses had been inundated.

The national meteorological organization issued flood warnings for six western provinces and forecast rainfall in 18 of the country’s 31 provinces. 

It said precipitation across Iran this year is roughly 85% below average, a shortfall that has emptied reservoirs and left taps running dry in several regions, including parts of Tehran.

Experts and officials have attributed the worsening crisis to prolonged drought, climate change, poor water management, illegal well drilling and inefficient agricultural practices. 

Extended dry spells reduce the soil’s ability to absorb water, increasing the likelihood of flash floods when rain does occur.

Over the weekend, Iran conducted its first cloud-seeding operation of the year above the watershed of Lake Urmia in the northwest.

Cloud seeding involves dispersing chemicals into clouds to stimulate rainfall, though meteorologists caution that it is expensive and provides only limited benefit.

“In addition to cloud seeding’s heavy cost, the amount of rainfall it produces is nowhere near what is needed to solve our water crisis,” Sahar Tajbakhsh, head of Iran’s Meteorological Organization, told state television on Sunday.

The report said the groups adapted after tighter airport controls in Lebanon, the collapse of long-standing routes through Syria and the killing of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) operatives involved in logistics. 

Ynet, citing the US Treasury Department, said Iran has transferred roughly $1 billion to Hezbollah since the start of the year, funding that Washington says is used to rebuild the group’s capabilities.

New smuggling channels have increasingly relied on Turkey and Iraq, as well as maritime shipments and cash-based businesses, according to Ynet.

Other methods described in the report include the use of gold transfers, cryptocurrency channels, and shipping components in parts for later assembly in Lebanon.

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  Iran helped Hezbollah rebuild command structure in Lebanon - Le Figaro

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The report also said Hezbollah has sought to expand local production based on Iranian expertise, reducing dependence on vulnerable cross-border routes.

A US delegation visiting Beirut last week urged Lebanon's leadership to curb financing networks and strengthen oversight of money-exchange agencies.

Analysts quoted by Ynet said they expect Iran to continue supporting Hezbollah’s reconstruction to maintain its political influence within Lebanon’s Shi’ite community.

Brigadier General Ali-Mohammad Naeini, spokesman and deputy for public affairs of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), told Mehr News in an extensive interview that the 12-day June conflict had reshaped regional deterrence and left Israel unable to escalate.

“The enemy does not have the conditions for a new war,” he said, adding that statements suggesting renewed confrontation were “psychological operations and cognitive warfare.”

Naeini said Iran had fully restored its command cycle within hours of the June strikes and delivered what he called a decisive response. 

He said the outcome of the fighting – which Tehran describes as one of the shortest but most consequential confrontations in its recent history – showed “years of planning, drills and preparedness.” 

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  Iran could turn on itself if Supreme Leader harmed, president warns

He portrayed the conflict as a technologically complex hybrid war involving missiles, cyber operations and information battles, rather than a conventional territorial fight. Naeini said Iran’s leadership played a central role in shaping public confidence and maintaining domestic cohesion throughout the confrontation.

Naeini emphasized that Iran’s armed forces remain on high alert and continue to expand missile, drone and air-defense capabilities, but argued that Israel is constrained by its “limitations, vulnerabilities and the strategic balance created after the June war.”

While dismissing talk of renewed conflict, he warned that Iran would deliver a stronger response if attacked again. 

“The armed forces are ready for a more complex war,” he said. “If the enemy commits another mistake, the response will be more forceful and more regret-inducing.”