Iran International
Iraq’s parliamentary election on Tuesday unfolded under the shadow of foreign influence from the United States and Iran which have for two decades vied over the future of the war-battered Arab nation.
Less than half of eligible voters reportedly registered, raising doubts that turnout will reach even 50%. Public disillusionment has depressed participation since 2005, with only two exceptions: the first post-Saddam vote that year and the 2015 election, when turnout neared 80%.
Iranian media outlets, especially those aligned with Tehran’s political factions, have been following the buildup intensely.
Conservative papers and those close to state institutions cast the vote as a measure of Iran’s remaining leverage in Baghdad.
But reform-leaning Rouydad24 cautioned that while Tehran and Washington view the election through a geopolitical lens, Iraqi voters are focused on preserving “fragile stability and economic growth,” a subtle critique of both countries’ roles.
‘Weary people’
Truska Sadeghi, a journalist monitoring the election from Paris, described the November 11 vote as “a fateful test for a country caught between crises ranging from the legitimacy of its governments to the influence of foreign powers.”
Iraqis, she said, have grown weary of “repetitive and ineffective political maneuvers,” while shifting coalitions and Iran’s declining sway in the wider “axis of resistance” have made Baghdad Tehran’s most critical arena.
The United States has repeatedly warned Iran in recent months against meddling in Iraq’s political process, urging Baghdad to distance itself from Tehran.
Iran’s foreign ministry on Monday spoke against what it deemed to be "unacceptable” foreign interference. Iraq’s foreign ministry called the statement “provocative” and urged Tehran not to get involved in the country’s internal affairs.
Despite its diminishing regional clout, Iran remains a central player in the Iraq.
Tehran-aligned groups such as Hashd al-Sha’bi and various Kata’ib factions have rebranded themselves as civilian organizations, even as their armed presence in Baghdad remains visible.
‘Stability’
Analysts including Sadeghi and Frankfurt-based Ali Sadrzadeh argue that Iran-linked networks still wield significant political and economic leverage.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani and other senior officers continue to shuttle between Iranian and Iraqi cities, meeting aligned factions to ensure “Iraq’s stability.”
A key test for the next government will be whether it can assert authority over pro-Iranian groups like Hashd al-Sha’bi, which has long sought to position itself as a parallel defense institution.
“It’s a battle over whether Iraq achieves genuine political independence or remains tethered to foreign powers,” Sadeghi said.
Whatever the result, she added, Iraq’s next government will face the same core tasks: bringing armed groups under state control, restoring public trust through credible reforms, and recalibrating relations with Iran, the United States and regional partners.
Ali Akbar Velayati, the adviser on international affairs, said Washington’s plan to expand its presence close to Pakistan’s Gwadar port and along Iran’s southern coast is part of a wider effort to counter China’s growing influence and to secure maritime routes linking South Asia to the Middle East. “The US wants new bases near this vital area to maintain its dominance over regional trade and to contain China’s rise,” he told the official news agency IRNA.
Velayati said the US is facing growing resistance to its presence across several regions, including the Middle East and Asia. He added that Iran, as an independent and influential state, will continue to work with Asian and Islamic nations that oppose what he called Western interference and domination.
Tehran steps up backing for allies
Iran’s foreign minister told parliament on Monday that the country has directed much of its diplomatic and political capacity toward supporting what it calls the “axis of resistance,” a network of regional allies opposing US and Israeli influence.
Abbas Araghchi said the ministry had prioritized “security diplomacy” and coordination with allied movements as part of a broader regional strategy. He said recent months have seen intensified confrontation with the United States and Israel, marked by assassinations and airstrikes across the region. “Under these circumstances, a significant portion of the Foreign Ministry’s efforts has been devoted to supporting the axis of resistance, effectively functioning as the foreign ministry of the axis,” he said.
Western governments have urged Iran to limit its backing for armed groups in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen, saying such support fuels instability. Araghchi said Tehran’s diplomacy also aims to promote a multipolar order and deepen cooperation with blocs such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh told the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate on Tuesday that Iran was engaged in indirect diplomacy when the attacks took place, calling Washington’s approach a “betrayal of diplomacy.”
He said Tehran still seeks a negotiated resolution to the decades-long nuclear dispute but will not compromise on national security.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has final authority on foreign and nuclear policy, has said negotiations with Washington cannot continue under pressure.
Talks between Tehran and Washington, conducted indirectly through intermediaries earlier this year, have stalled since the June conflict, which Iranian officials say shattered trust. Major differences persist over uranium enrichment levels and the lifting of sanctions.
"Tehran is not seeking nuclear bombs and ... is prepared to assure the world about it. We are very proud of our home-grown nuclear program, and is against anyone who tries to sabotage and manipulate it" the diplomat added.
International monitors, including the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), have reported no evidence that Iran is building a nuclear weapon, Khatibzadeh pointed out, adding that US intelligence assessments before the June conflict also indicated that Tehran was not actively pursuing bomb development.
Iran maintains that its nuclear program is entirely peaceful and subject to international oversight, arguing that Western claims of weaponization are politically motivated. US officials, however, have continued to call for stricter limits on Iran’s enrichment and missile programs.
Support for regional groups
Khatibzadeh said Iran remained in contact with regional groups it considers part of its security framework, insisting their attacks on Israel were responses to the situation in Gaza and not launched on Iran’s orders.
“I would like to challenge the concept of proxies and militias... reducing them to being Iran’s militias or proxies is oversimplifying the situation,” he said, adding that for example Hezbollah was created after the Israeli attacks to Lebanon in 1980s. “With or without Iran supporting them, the resistance would stay there."
The Iranian deputy foreign minister added, “Has anybody noticed that Hezbollah has fired any bullets on behalf of Iran in the past few months? Everything Hezbollah has done has been for the cause of Palestine.”
On Monday, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told parliament that Tehran had devoted much of its diplomatic capacity to supporting the so-called “axis of resistance,” a term it uses for allied movements in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and among Palestinian factions.