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INSIGHT

Tehran’s stalled eastern pivot stirs doubt

Maryam Sinaiee
Maryam Sinaiee

Iran International

Sep 9, 2025, 17:26 GMT+1Updated: 01:30 GMT+0
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend an official welcoming ceremony in Beijing, China May 16, 2024
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend an official welcoming ceremony in Beijing, China May 16, 2024

The so-called “Look East” strategy has become the latest point of contention in Tehran's fractious politics, with conservatives presenting it as a shield against Western isolation and reformists warning it risks overreliance on unreliable partners.

The debate sharpened last week when President Masoud Pezeshkian took part in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin, China.

While his usual detractors in the hardline camp hailed the trip as proof of Iran’s integration into a multipolar world order, some moderate backers warned the bloc’s loose structure and rival interests limits its usefulness in times of need.

Proponents of the Look East approach portray SCO membership as a political win.

“Strengthening Iran’s presence in the SCO and BRICS disrupts the US and West’s project of isolating Iran,” hardline daily Kayhan wrote in a Sunday editorial. “The clear message is that the more pressure increases, the deeper Iran’s ties with major non-Western powers will become.”

Nour News, linked to Iran’s security establishment, stressed that the trip coincided with Europe’s activation of the snapback sanctions mechanism and argued that membership helps Tehran build a “political consensus” against Western pressure.

The summit’s final communiqué denounced sanctions on Iran as unjust and condemned Israel’s military strike on Iranian soil.

But reformist voices highlight the bloc’s limitations. Sazandegi noted the SCO is neither NATO nor the EU, offers no security guarantees and has in the past refused Iran’s entry over UN sanctions

“The example of Russia, which after Western sanctions received little practical support from the SCO, reinforces this view,” the editorial argued.

Economic expectations

Economically, Look East advocates frame the policy as an antidote to sanctions and a gateway to new markets.

Pezeshkian used the summit to call for greater use of national currencies, shared digital financial systems, and a multilateral settlement fund.

Javan, the Revolutionary Guards-linked daily, argued that such mechanisms could reduce reliance on the Western financial system.

“The SCO provides a platform to reduce dependency on the Western financial system,” the paper wrote on Sunday.

The multilateral currency fund… can accelerate Iran’s digital economy growth, while linking Chabahar port to the North–South corridor will turn Iran into a trade crossroads between China, Russia and India.”

Critics counter that these ambitions face hard limits. Key SCO members including India and Central Asian states maintain close economic ties with the West and may hesitate to risk secondary sanctions.

Security expectations

While the SCO is not a military alliance, conservatives view its security framework and symbolism as central to Look East.

Javan said Pezeshkian’s presence alongside Chinese, Russian, and Indian leaders sent a deterrent message.

“The response (to any US-Israeli attack) will not only come from Tehran but also, by other means, from the Eastern bloc,” the daily asserted.

The same outlet pointed to prospects for cyber cooperation, artificial intelligence and advanced telecoms, arguing that Russian and Chinese technologies could help Iran close its sanctions-induced tech gap and support “the smart modernization of defense and the economy.”

The government's Iran newspaper acknowledged that expectations for Eastern alliances had been overblown in some circles.

"Some inside Iran had expected the (SCO) bloc to act as a genuine security shield for its members, not merely issue a formal statement of condemnation.

"Yet such expectations rest less on institutional realities than on romanticized notions and political myth-making," it added. "Over the past two decades, labels such as the 'Eastern NATO,' an 'anti-Western hegemonic alliance,' or even a 'new Warsaw Pact' have fueled these inflated perceptions within Iran’s political discourse."

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Why Iran's rulers fear change more than war

Sep 9, 2025, 15:58 GMT+1
•
Ata Mohamed Tabriz

Facing a grinding crisis and mounting calls at home to change course before disaster strikes, Iran’s rulers still speak in a language that suggests they prefer the risks of war to the uncertainties of reform.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Sunday warned of an enemy plot to impose a harmful “no war, no peace” stalemate on Iran.

He alluded to the widespread fears of renewed conflict but stopped short of addressing them directly.

The “dangerous” limbo—as he called it—will be broken either by peace or by war. Yet peace would require a dramatic shift he has rejected in both word and deed, leaving only one option, even if not stated openly.

Why war seems manageable

For Tehran, war offers a chance to present itself as a power “standing firm against the enemy.”

That narrative rests on two premises: exaggerating the damage inflicted on Israel while recasting Iran’s own losses as “sacrifice” and “resilience.” This ability to redefine reality makes war appear containable, even when the battlefield balance tilts against Iran.

Conflict also strengthens institutions like the Revolutionary Guards and Basij, which dominate not only security but much of Iran’s economy and politics.

External crises bring them bigger budgets, wider powers, and a firmer grip on the state. Sustained tension, even without outright war, keeps them central to decision-making.

Bureaucratically, war simplifies governance.

An external threat sidelines factional disputes, concentrates power in one command center, and allows sensitive decisions to be postponed. In such conditions, obedience to central authority becomes the overriding principle.

Why change is riskier

Unlike war, which has a clear adversary and defined parameters, internal change is unpredictable.

The leadership knows genuine reform could set off a chain of fresh demands that quickly spiral out of control—especially when combined with external pressure. For a system built on concentrated power and tight social control, this is far riskier than conflict it believes it can at least spin through propaganda.

History reinforces this fear.

The Soviet collapse is interpreted in Tehran as the direct result of political liberalization. At home, the reform movement of the 1990s triggered demands that Khamenei deemed intolerable, ending in repression.

These experiences mean even cautious proposals—from economists or technocrats—are viewed as existential threats.

The IRGC and other power centers oppose change not only for security reasons but because their vast economic interests are at stake. Reform would mean redistribution of both power and wealth, making them natural adversaries of any shift.

A managed crisis—or a trap?

From Tehran’s perspective, war is “manageable”: it mobilizes security and propaganda, strengthens key institutions, and produces a narrative of defiance. Change, by contrast, has no clear enemy, no obvious tools of control, and no reliable endpoint.

Yet relying on crisis as a survival strategy carries its own risks.

Each confrontation further depletes Iran’s economic and social capacity. Emigration, a shrinking middle class, and crumbling infrastructure all show that the politics of permanent crisis may deliver short-term cohesion but erodes long-term survival.

The essential question is how long a state can balance on the edge of crisis before that very crisis slips out of control.

The answer is uncertain. What is clear is that the Islamic Republic still believes change, not war, is the greater danger to its survival.

South Korea drafts new UN resolution on Iran sanctions snapback

Sep 9, 2025, 01:37 GMT+1

South Korea, the rotating president of the United Nations Security Council this month, has finalized a draft resolution that would permanently lift international sanctions on Iran but is unlikely to be adopted, Reuters reported on Monday citing diplomats.

South Korea’s draft is not an initiative of its own, but a legal requirement under Resolution 2231 which endorsed the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and is due to expire on October 18.

According to Resolution 2231, sanctions will automatically return unless the Council votes to keep them lifted. That is why the Council president must first table a resolution to “permanently lift” sanctions as its failure is what triggers the re-imposition.

The procedural step comes as part of the so-called “snapback” mechanism triggered by Britain, France, and Germany late last month, after they accused Tehran of violating its commitments under the deal.

The Security Council must vote by late September on whether to make sanctions relief permanent. For the resolution to pass, it would need at least nine votes in favor and no vetoes from the five permanent members: the United States, Britain, France, Russia, and China.

The adoption of the South Korean resolution is regarded as highly unlikely, as Washington and its European allies remain adamant that Tehran has failed to live up to its obligations, Reuters reported.

As no member tabled a resolution within ten days of the process being launched, it fell to South Korea, as Council president for September, to do so. Seoul’s move on Monday fulfills that requirement, though a date for the vote has not yet been set.

Britain, France, and Germany are still pressing Iran to meet three conditions before the end of the month, which could allow for a temporary delay in sanctions snapback and create space for new negotiations.

  • Nuclear crisis looms as Iran faces sanctions snapback, expert warns

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Russia and China

Moscow and Beijing have taken a different approach. Late last month, they finalized their own draft resolution calling for a six-month extension of the nuclear deal, urging all parties to return to negotiations.

The resolution of extension of sanctions is expected to be put to vote once Tehran and European powers reach an agreement.

Should Russia and China move first, their text would almost certainly face a veto from the United States, France, or Britain.

Iran taps Doha to broker nuclear talks, signals flexibility on uranium stocks

Sep 9, 2025, 00:33 GMT+1

Iran’s Supreme Leader has sought Qatar’s mediation with the West as Tehran signals rare flexibility on its enriched uranium as part of efforts to avert UN sanctions snapback, multiple sources told Iran International.

On September 4, the emir of Qatar received Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's verbal message in a meeting in Doha with Iran's top diplomat Abbas Araghchi, the Qatari state news agency confirmed at the time.

Informed sources told Iran International that the message, sent upon Khamenei’s instruction, was a request for Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad to mediate between Tehran and Western powers to avert the reimposition of UN sanctions under the so-called “snapback” mechanism.

Sheikh Tamim has been asked to facilitate contacts with the United States and the E3 (France, Germany, UK) to resume nuclear diplomacy and prevent the return of sanctions, Iran International has learned.

According to the sources, Tehran is showing greater flexibility over discussions concerning the whereabouts and handling of its highly enriched uranium stockpiles, an issue it had refused to broach with interlocutors after recent US airstrikes.

UN nuclear watchdog

Foreign Minister Araghchi will meet with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi in Cairo on Tuesday, Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei confirmed on Monday.

He said the meeting will aim to wrap up negotiations on the framework of Iran-IAEA cooperation.

The developments come amid intensified scrutiny from UN inspectors. The UN nuclear watchdog has said it has lacked visibility into the status or location of Iran’s highly enriched uranium since attacks on Iranian enrichment facilities began in mid-June.

The IAEA reported in August that Iran held roughly 440.9 kg of 60% enriched uranium, enough, if further refined, for around ten nuclear devices.

Diplomatically, the stakes are rising. Britain, France and Germany triggered the snapback mechanism under UN Security Council Resolution 2231 in late August, setting a timetable under which sanctions relief will lapse unless extended by another resolution.

The E3 are still pressing Iran to meet three conditions before the end of the month, which could allow for a temporary delay in sanctions snapback and create space for new negotiations.

These include allowing UN inspectors access to nuclear sites damaged in Israeli strikes, clarifying the status of its enriched uranium stockpile, and entering direct talks with the United States.

South Korea's resolution to lift sanctions

As the Council president for September, South Korea on Monday finalized a draft resolution that would permanently lift international sanctions on Iran. However, the resolution is unlikely to be adopted, Reuters reported citing diplomats.

South Korea’s draft is not an initiative of its own, but a legal requirement under Resolution 2231 which endorsed the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and is due to expire on October 18.

According to Resolution 2231, sanctions are presumed to return automatically unless the Council votes to keep them lifted. That is why the Council president must first table a resolution to “permanently lift” sanctions as its failure is what triggers the automatic re-imposition.

The procedural step comes as part of the so-called “snapback” mechanism. Under the process, the Security Council must vote by late September on whether to make sanctions relief permanent.

For the resolution to pass, it would need at least nine votes in favor and no vetoes from the five permanent members: the United States, Britain, France, Russia, and China.

The adoption of the resolution is largely regarded as highly unlikely, as Washington and its European allies remain adamant that Tehran has failed to live up to its obligations.

If no member tabled a resolution within ten days of the process being launched, it fell to South Korea, as Council president for September, to act. Seoul’s move on Monday meets that requirement, though no vote date has yet been set.

Iran urges IAEA chief to condemn attacks on atomic sites ahead of Cairo talks

Sep 8, 2025, 22:00 GMT+1

Iran has urged the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief to denounce US and Israeli attacks on its nuclear facilities, ahead of a planned meeting between Rafael Grossi and Iran's foreign minister in Cairo.

In a speech to the IAEA on Monday, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations and other international organizations in Vienna condemned the attacks and said the nuclear watchdog must address them in future.

"The unprecedented attacks by the US and the Zionist regime on Iran's nuclear facilities must be reflected in the IAEA Director General’s reports on nuclear safety and security," Reza Najafi said.

“These unprecedented and illegal actions pose a serious threat to international peace and security, undermine nuclear safety and security, and damage the non-proliferation regime,” Tasnim News quoted Najafi as saying.

His comments came shortly before Iran's foreign ministry confirmed that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi plans to meet the UN nuclear watchdog's chief during his Tuesday visit to Egypt.

The two sides will meet to finalize negotiations on the new framework for Iran-IAEA cooperation, Esmail Baghaei said.

The meeting will be held in Cairo, where Araghchi will stop over en route to Tunis, Iran Nuance website reported, adding that it will aim to “finalize the Iran-IAEA deal.”

Grossi delivered his report to the Board of Governors on Monday, outlining discussions with Iran on a possible agreement to resume inspections.

The Trump administration began 60 days of negotiations with Iran in April, setting a deadline for a new agreement. On June 13, one day after the deadline expired, Israel launched a surprise military campaign against Iran, targeting nuclear and military facilities and killing senior commanders and nuclear scientists.

On June 22, the United States began its own military intervention, dubbed Operation Midnight Hammer, striking three major nuclear sites in Esfahan, Natanz and Fordow.

The Israeli and US strikes were reportedly aimed at sites suspected of uranium enrichment activity, not civilian nuclear power plants such as Bushehr.

Iran drafting resolution to ban attacks

Najafi said that in recent years Iran has repeatedly urged the IAEA Board to include language prohibiting attacks or threats against nuclear facilities, but those calls went unanswered.

According to state media, Iran now plans to present a draft resolution on banning such attacks at the upcoming IAEA General Conference.

The General Conference is distinct from the Board of Governors and serves as a broad, annual policy-setting assembly for all member states. The Board of Governors is a smaller executive body that meets more frequently to handle ongoing issues.

The 69th Regular Session of the IAEA General Conference will convene from September 15 to 19 in Vienna.

Even if Iran’s draft on nuclear facility attacks fits the General Conference for its policy-oriented, normative goal, a Board resolution would be more relevant for enforcing specific safeguards or addressing violations.

Former Iran defense ministry advisor resurfaces after Egypt abduction

Sep 8, 2025, 21:49 GMT+1

Amir Mousawi, a former Iranian diplomat and defense ministry adviser whose abduction in Egypt had earlier been confirmed by Tehran, wrote on X that he has returned to Iraq.

Earlier in the day, foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei confirmed that Mousawi had entered Egypt on an Iraqi passport and was abducted there.

“We heard this morning about the disappearance of Mr. Amir Mousawi in Egypt. He is not currently a diplomat. He had previously served as a cultural attaché," Baghaei told reporters in Tehran.

On Monday Mousawi’s account on X posted a message in Arabic saying "Mr. Amir Mousawi has gone missing at Egypt airport after arriving on an official invitation! His disappearance raises major questions about his safety, and there are urgent demands to reveal the truth immediately.”

The post was addressed to Egypt’s prime minister, parliament speaker and judiciary chief.

Iranian news website Didban Iran cited suggestions in regional media that he may have been abducted by agents of Israel’s Mossad in Cairo.

Mousawi -- also spelled Mousavi -- has previously been active as a Middle East analyst on Iranian state-linked channels including Al-Alam and Al-Mayadeen, as well as on Qatar’s Al Jazeera, where he frequently expressed anti-Israeli views.

He also headed the Islamic Republic’s Center for Strategic and International Studies and served as an adviser to Iran’s defense ministry.

He left Algeria in 2018 after four years as Iran’s cultural attaché there.

The Al-Monitor news site reported that Mousawi faced accusations of spreading Shi’ite ideology on behalf of Tehran. Algerian commentators and political activists had demanded his expulsion, describing his activities as “dangerous and suspicious.”

In 2017, he sparked controversy in Algeria with remarks against Anissa al-Mansali, the widow of former Algerian president Houari Boumédiène. On Facebook, Mousawi criticized her comments on Iran, saying she wished for the fall of the Islamic Republic. The post drew backlash from Algerians who rallied in support of al-Mansali.

Mousawi also drew attention last month, after telling an Iraqi outlet that Iran could build nuclear weapons within “a few hours,” saying the country had sufficient enriched uranium and infrastructure to produce up to “24 nuclear bombs.”