Iranian Parliament Approves Budget Bill With Huge Deficit

Last week, Mehdi Abbasi and Nasser Amani, two members of Tehran City Council, had emphasized that they would publish the list on Saturday, but mayor Alireza Zakani once again announced, “we are not responsible for publishing the list of unsafe buildings, but we will give it to the legal authorities.”

Meanwhile, lawmaker Mohammad Hasan Asafari told the ILNA news agency that "announcing the names of these buildings can have a psychological effect and make people anxious, so there is no need to create such fears in the society."

Earlier, in November Alireza Zakani said “If we release the list, no one will stay in Tehran anymore.”

The list of 129 unsafe buildings in Tehran became a hot topic about five years ago, after the Plasco incident.

The Plasco Building was a 20-story high-rise that collapsed on January 19, 2017 after it caught fire. Twenty firefighters were reportedly killed and at least 70 others were injured by the collapse. Another major building collapse in Khuzestan province last year, made the issue of identifying unsafe buildings an urgent matter.

IRNA state news agency reported in June that there are currently "33,000 unsafe buildings" in Tehran.

“I’m extending my hand, once again, for cooperation to all pro-democracy forces, including individuals, parties and groups, to support the Iranian national revolution on the basis of three minimum common principles: Iran's territorial integrity, human rights-based secular democracy, and people’s right to determine the form of the [future] political system through a free vote,” he said in a statement published via his social media accounts Saturday.

The statement came after a petition endorsing him as representative of his supporters to lead a transition from the Islamic Republic to secular rule launched Tuesday by actor Ehsan Karami received over 300,000 signatures by Saturday. “This petition helps the people of Iran to express their opinion,” Karami said.

One of the first to support the campaign was expatriate Iranian football star Ali Karimi, a key supporter of the popular uprising, who has millions of followers on Instagram and Twitter. The number of signatures has now risen to over 350,000 on Sunday.

Karami said he had launched the petition because the exiled crown prince had in an interview with London-based Manoto TV asked the people of Iran to give him power of attorney to lead the movement against the Islamic Republic.

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In response to a question why he was not openly accepting the leadership of the movement, Pahlavi said any kind of work, presumably lobbying with world powers and international organizations, required “a legitimate basis or some kind of power of attorney from inside Iran."

Signatories of the petition include several celebrities but so far Karimi is the only high-profile expatriate opposition figure recognized as one of the likely members of a future transitory council to have signed the petition and campaigned for it.

Other known figures representing the protest movement, including actress and human rights activist Nazanin Bonyadi, journalist and activist Masih Alinejad, actress Golshifteh Farahani, activist Hamed Esmaeilion, and Nobel Peace Laureate Shirin Ebadi have so far neither endorsed nor rejected the plea.

Some regime opponents imprisoned in Iran, including Manouchehr Bakhtiari have endorsed him. Bakhtiari is an ardent believer in reviving the monarchy. He is jailed for his anti-regime activism after his 23-year-old son Pouya was shot in the head during the November 2019 protests in Karaj.

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The petition has given rise to intense arguments on social media with those in favor tweeting with the hashtag “I endorse power of attorney” and others using the hashtag “I do not endorse power of attorney”. The exiled prince is currently among the top ten Persian-language hashtags on Twitter now.

In recent years, the former crown prince has not laid claim to the throne, and at least on one occasion said his own desirable government would be a republic rather than a monarchy, but many of his supporters, who always refer to him affectionately as ‘The Prince’ see him as the future king of the country.

“Based on the Iranian Constitution [of 1906], Prince Reza Pahlavi is the heir to the Iranian throne. There’s no plan for him to establish a government … This [power of attorney] is giving him permission to meet political representatives and officials of other governments,” Kamelia Entekhabifard, chief editor of the Persian website of The Independent, told the BBC’s Persian television Wednesday.

Entekhabifard argued that giving such power of attorney to the exiled crown prince would prevent others without proper credentials, a clear past, and well-defined demands to meet with foreign officials.

“At least the Prince is emphasizing the principles of territorial integrity of the country, freedom of religion, equal rights for all Iranians,” she said while stressing that Pahlavi has always emphasized it is the Iranian people who should decide their future form of government through free elections.

Others -- notably some republicans and leftist politicians and activists – reject giving power of attorney to the exiled crown prince while even some of his supporters say empowering one person is undemocratic and would pave the way for future troubles.

In their view, only a council consisting of prominent political figures and activists can be a true representative of the Iranian people in any talks over the future of the Islamic Republic with world powers.

“I endorse power of attorney”, the Marxist Iran Left Party (Fadaiyan-e Khlagh) said in a statement Saturday, “is undemocratic both is form and content” and argued that appointing the exiled crown prince as Iranians’ representative, without setting any conditions, is similar to the yes-no referendum in 1979 that determined Iran's form of government as an Islamic Republic and disregards the “political and civil society in the country”.

Proponents of endorsing the exiled prince as a representative say those who do not want him can propose their own candidates, but the revolution needs leadership.

In an interview with reformist daily Etemad, centrist academic Sadegh Zibakalam also warned the government about its annoying treatment of women and young Iranians. It would be wrong to go back to repressive policies the government followed prior to the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, which led to the country's biggest uprising since mid-September.

Zibakalam added that some Iranian officials deny the crisis in Iran and believe that protests were created by foreigners, but it is over now. However, he warned that the reasons for the uprising are still there, and future protests could be even more widespread.

The outspoken pundit said if there is no change in Iran and the government continues its repressive policies, there are reasons to be worried about the future of the regime. The people's demand for regime change is an outcome of disillusionment and despair and lack of hope in reforms, he argued.

After four months of unrest, protesters are more determined that the clerical regime should go and a secular, democratic political system must replace it.

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Zibakalam said that university students were the driving force behind the protests. It looks like there is a slowdown in protests only because the universities are currently closed for exams and because because of enormous government pressure. But this does not mean the protests have receded.

The academic said that during the past 43 years, the student Basij was created to stop Iran's student movement, but not only the Basij has not been successful, the student movement has gained more power and momentum year after year.

Criticizing the consolidation of conservative's control over Iran in the 2021 presidential election by barring others from running, Zibakalam said you cannot control 80 million Iranians by one or two million radical revolutionaries.

Meanwhile, reformist lawmaker Massoud Pezeshkian criticized his colleagues at the Iranian Parliament (Majles) for chanting slogans such as death to this or that country instead of trying to correct the state of affairs in Iran. "We need to tolerate others and work and collaborate with the world," he said adding that "we need to create solidarity inside Iran."

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"When you say death to this or that country, they will also say death to you," Pezeshkian quipped.

Referring to some officials' radical threats against other nations during the past week, the lawmaker from Tabriz, criticized the government for doing away with experts in the government and giving big jobs to incapable people with no experience or knowledge. The failure of government policies is the outcome of our choice of managers and officials, he said.

Pezeshkian then asked whether the government can replace some officials and appoint new ones. "This cannot be done. This government is basically incapable of solving the country's current problems," he said.

Levelling similar accusations against the government, conservative politician Hedayatollah Khademi told Nameh News that President Ebrahim Raisi needs to replace some of his ministers in order to save himself. "There is no reason for him to continue working with these inefficient individuals who are the subject of many jokes among citizens. All cabinet members must be changed," he said, adding that "Iran is the only country in the world whose foreign minister and nuclear negotiators cannot speak English."

Khademi also criticized the parliament for failing to supervise the government's performance. He charged that most lawmakers are currently working on their re-election or if they have no hope, they are appeasing the government to make sure that they will get a job after they finish their term in the parliament.

The US dollar was trading well above 440,000 rials in Tehran’s unofficial market where cash dollars and Hawala money transfers take place. The new demand for dollars came after a couple of weeks when the rial hovered around 400,000 to the dollar.

One year ago, the dollar was around 300,000 rials and it was gaining strength every time there was hope of a nuclear agreement with the United States and its Western allies. But those hopes evaporated first in March, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine as 12 months of talks in Vienna came to an end, and finally in September when the last attempt to bridge the gaps fell apart.

An agreement to revive the 2015 nuclear deal known as the JCPOA would have lifted US economic sanctions, allowing Iran to sell more crude at higher prices and secure revenues for the government.

The Islamic Republic’s government and parliament are now in the midst of examining a budget draft for the new Iranian year starting March 21. Confusion, uncertainty, and lack of clarity surround the budget bill that is said to carry a 50-percent deficit and a 50-percent annual inflation rate.

Although street protests have lost their intensity, most pundits in Tehran and even many regime insiders do not consider the current situation stable. Any day and any event can trigger more nationwide protests, as the clerical regime has lost its legitimacy in the eyes of many citizens, especially the younger generation.

Abbas Akhoundi, a conservative lawmaker told local media this week that as a result of a failing foreign policy, Iran lags behind its development plans, international trade has been disrupted, inflation is beyond control and poverty can be seen everywhere while the society in on the verge of collapse.

Other politicians compared Iran with neighboring Iraq and Afghanistan, saying that their currencies are more stable despite decades of instability.

However, Iraq’s currency has begun to decline for a totally different reason than economic weakness. The Wall Street Journal reported January 19 that the United States has begun to monitor dollar banking transactions from Iraq, stopping wire transfers that lack transparency and full information about the sender and the recipient. This has led to shortages of dollars for imports and cash dollar banknotes have risen around 10 percent against the Iraqi dinar.

However, this is also related to Iran as the US suspects Iraq’s banking system is being used by Tehran to hide its illicit dollar transactions through the international banking system.

US sanctions on Iran not only penalize countries and companies that buy oil from Tehran but also bans its dollar transactions. The sanctions have also led to a de facto international boycott of Iranian banks that have been cut off from the global SWIFT transaction network. As a result, exports and imports cost at least 25 percent more for the Iranian government and companies.

Since its deadly suppression of popular protest in the past four months that has killed around 500 civilians, the Islamic Republic has become more isolated in the world and Western countries continue to issue more sanctions, adding to the prevailing economic uncertainty and the fall of the rial.

Jahanabadi further charged that Iranian officials do not believe in governance as an expertise and try to “re-invent the wheel” instead of learning from 200 other countries.

"Iranian politicians are constantly reinventing the wheel. They never ask themselves how their counterparts in 200 other countries treat and manage their national currencies and foreign exchanges. They do not believe in banking as a knowledge-based practice and an expertise. With all that I wonder why we are so complacent and always believe that we can correct the world," the lawmaker said.

He drew attention to the fact that officials during the past weeks claimed that the fall in the value of Iran’s currency was the outcome of the protests. But they never ask themselves why it keeps falling even when the streets are calmer.

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Jahanabadi explained that when society is volatile, some people tend to invest in real estate in other countries. This has happened during the protests in 2017-2019. In 2022, a lot of capital left Iran for purchasing properties in Armenia, Georgia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.

Furthermore, at times of unrest, many shift their capital to gold and foreign currencies to prevent the devaluation of their assets. Iran’s rial has fallen more sharply and is more vulnerable than even in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Jahanabadi maintained that almost everyone knows that “our political, economic, foreign and cultural policies need reform, but no one knows who should start that reform.” However, he added: "As one of 290 Iranian lawmakers, I think this country needs essential reforms. We need to change the structures, methods, views and policies." He added that as a result of the current situation buying a house, a car and finding a job have been turned into a dream for many young Iranians. Why shouldn't they be depressed and desperate?"

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Meanwhile, reformist politician Hassan Rasouli has said in an interview that Iranians' demands are miles apart from views held by officials. Top officials regularly make many false claims. He argued that the political system’s main responsibility is to be responsive to the wishes of the people and this requires comprehensive, long-term and realistic plans.

Rasouli added that the current situation leaves no hope of improvement. Problems in Iran's domestic politics have left no international respect for Iran.

He was probably referring to the government's violent and ruthless reaction to recent protests in Iran and its ignorance of challenges in the international arena. What the officials have been doing in this regard so far, Rasouli said, has been nothing other than simply ignoring or denying problems, while inefficiency is visible in all economic, security, cultural and social matters.

On Thursday, economist Bahman Arman had said that decisions in the government are affected by the influence of a group that is against development and progress. He was probably referring to the intervention of ultraconservative figures, mainly the members of Paydari Party in the affairs of the government, and individuals like former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili who offer suggestions to the Raisi Administration on many matters including the nuclear issue without being accountable for the consequences of their intervention.

Like Rasouli, Arman also said that the government does not have an intelligent roadmap and as a result makes too many errors without trying to compensate for them later. As a result, said Rasouli, divides between the people and the government are likely to further widen and Iran's vanishing middle class is likely to be turned into a needy class, although government officials will probably continue to brag about a "progress" that as they claim makes Iran's enemies jealous.