Pundits Say Iran Regime Should Make Concessions Now Than Later

An early and extended furlough to Mehdi Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of the sons of former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, has been cited as evidence to support the conjecture. 

Yasser Hashemi Rafsanjani, the youngest son of the former president who for years was a kingmaker in the Islamic Republic, revealed the information about his brother’s unusual furlough in a Clubhouse discussion on Sunday. 

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He said that his brother Mehdi – who is serving a 10-year sentence over financial corruption in Evin – was usually let out of the prison on Wednesdays on a two-day leave and had to be back in the prison on Fridays. But this week, he was sent home early and told not to come back until after Saturday, when the fire broke out in the prison.

This has added to speculation that the prison blaze might have been an intentional act by the government, although others believe it could have been a coincidence.

Sources in Tehran told Iran International Sunday morning that four of the inmates had been seen in body covers after the incident, a report later confirmed by Iran's judiciary. Over 60 inmates were also injured in the incident, four of them in critical condition. 

Human rights advocate and lawyer Mostafa Nili, in a tweet Sunday said some of the inmates have been removed from Ward Eight, where both political and financial prisoners are held. According to Nili and others, political prisoners in Ward Four were only affected by tear gas and none have been taken away.

Fararu, which is a pro-reform website, interviewed Iranian economist Vahid Shaqaqi Shahri who said if the regime fails to clinch an agreement with the West over its controversial nuclear program and revive the JCPOA, the country may experience higher inflation that might bring its economic growth to zero in 2023.

Shaqaqi told Fararu that while Iran’s neighbors including Turkey and Saudi Arabia have experienced double-digit growths in the past few years, the economy of the Islamic Republic has shrunk in the face of sanctions and skyrocketing inflation.

Iran’s economy is almost completely state-run and the decision-makers in the country show no flexibility or interest in reform even though many warn the system needs drastic changes. The average annual inflation in the sixth months of the current Iranian year reached 42.1%, the Statistical Center of Iran announced in a report in September.

As the streets of many cities have turned into scenes of antigovernment protests since mid-September in the latest wave of anger at the totalitarian approach of the clerical regime towards cultural, political, and economic issues, there seems to be no glimpse of hope for any reforms by the authorities.

The people who are currently venting anger against the Islamic Republic in the streets and demand regime change are fed up with economic pressure and see a gloomy future for themselves; however, the government keeps cracking down, showing no interest in reforms.

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In his Saturday interview with the Fararu news website, Shaqaqi said that the Iranian “economy has no more capacity to tumble down further.”

This university professor also referred to a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which has forecast high energy and food prices and tougher economic conditions in 2023, warning that without “economic reforms, empowering the private sector, development of non-oil exports, and increase in investments,” Iran might see a more crippled economy next year.

Earlier this week, the IMF reported that with “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook, global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023.”

This Iranian expert further noted that there are two more possible scenarios for the Iranian economy next year. “The optimistic scenario is that the JCPOA will be revived, and with the removal of the sanctions, the inflation rate will decrease to 20 percent and an economic growth of five percent could be achieved.”

With a slight increase in oil sales, Iran's economy has gained about 40 billion dollars from non-oil exports and imported a total worth of 45 billion dollarsin goods, Shaqaqi said, adding that the country has achieved economic growth of two to three percent, as predicted by the International Monetary Fund. However, he said, “if the conditions remain the same and sanctions are not increased,” one or two percent economic growth along with a 40 percent inflation can also be seen for Iran in 2023.

Iran’s economy is mostly influenced by political power. The government believes that in case of losing control over the economy, it will lose political authority.

A notable example is the Revolutionary Guard that plays a very significant role in the economy by monopolistic practices. Several cases of corruption and mega-size embezzlements have diminished popular trust in the regime.

Condemning the violence in a statement on Sunday, the Coordination Council of Iranian Teachers’ Trade Associations, the body that has organized numerous nationwide protest rallies and strikes in the past few years, described the minister as an “incompetent and good-for-nothing element.” 

"Unfortunately, in the last week, we witnessed the brutal attack of security forces and plainclothes on educational centers in various cities of the country, including schools in Kordestan province, Gohardasht and Mehrshahr near the capital Tehran, Orumiyeh (Urmia) and Ardabil in northwestern Iran and the northern city of Rasht,” the statement read. “Creating terror, the security forces arrested several students and transferred them to unknown places," it added. 

The latest case was the attack on a school in Ardabil, where school officials tried to force the students to sing the propaganda song “Hello Commander” in praise of Iran’s ruler Ali Khamenei, but when some students refused, government agents showed up, beating and assaulting the girls. One student, identified as Asra Panahi, reportedly died of her injuries at the hospital while another one is in critical condition. 

On Saturday, hardliner news agencies published a video of an interview with Asra Panahi’s uncle in which he said she has died of a congenital heart condition.

Amid nationwide protests that have even mobilized Iranian high school students, the Islamic Republic authorities are removing photos of the Supreme Leader from classrooms in fear of students damaging the portraits.

Protesters in the past four weeks have been routinely setting fire to large street garbage bins to block streets and prevent security forces from approaching demonstrators, and to protest themselves against tear gas.

A host of top officials have called this a costly destruction of public property, with the chairman of Tehran City Council warned recently that the government cannot replace the trash bins so quickly as each cost around $500.

Aftab News, a reformist website has taken issue with these officials, saying that in the first place, the price quoted is almost four times higher than the retail price for these large, square containers.

In an article on Sunday, Aftab News has then listed a series of large-scale corruption cases linked with government officials, regime insiders, banks and pension funds in the past three decades, arguing that these cases cost taxpayers the equivalent of billions of trash bins.

Iran’s economic system is controlled by the government, large religious and military conglomerates, largely based on political influence networks, nepotism and corrupt arrangements. Although the country has exported well above one trillion dollars of oil in this period, economic growth has been anemic and people have become poorer, especially in the past decade.

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Aftab News argued that in contrast to officials criticizing protesters, some reformists and others argue that many top figures have remained silent throughout the years regarding government corruption and what people in the streets do is nowhere as destructive as what officials have done. The website pointed out that in the 2021 global corruption ranking Iran was in the bottom quarter, ranking 150 among 180 countries.

Some regime insiders recently have raised their voice saying that corruption has become alarmingly systematic. Ahmad Tavakoli a member of a constitutional body and Mahmoud Sadeghi a former lawmaker are among those who have raised the alarm.

Aftab News quotes others as saying corruption cases that reach the government-controlled media are “the tip of the iceberg,” pointing out that in one $60-billion state “charity” organization not even one employee has been fired or reprimanded over four decades, while the conglomerate is not accountable to parliament or the government.

It also points to one corruption case in government petrochemical exports that reached the courts in recent years and totaled $7.4 billion, equivalent to more than 60 million trash bins.

Aftab News then goes on listing a dozen other large corruption cases, including a decade-old case of $3 billion disappearing from the central bank and the perpetrator now living in Canada. It mentions the case of Babak Zanjani, an insider businessman tasked with exporting oil during international sanctions in 2010-2013, who pocketed at least $2.7 billion and is now in prison sentenced to death.

Just this year in August, a $3 billion case was revealed in the semi-public Mobarakeh steel plant and after two months no one has been arrested, let alone indicted.

Aftab news says that funds lost in just a few of these corruption cases could buy more than 50 billion trash bins, while high-ranking officials, including Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian make a fuss about a few hundred set on fire by protesters.

In a phone call with Portuguese Minister of Foreign Affairs João Gomes Cravinho, Amir-Abdollahian criticized the “interventionist” statements and measures by other countries, saying that they provoke people and instigate unrest in Iran. 

He claimed that some countries consider “riots and terrorist activities” as a form of protest, denouncing the move by European countries that put the issue of additional resolutions or sanctions on the agenda of the upcoming meeting of the Council of Ministers of the European Union.

Despite numerous reports by the Ukrainian military about the use of the Iranian drones by the Russian forces, Amir-Abdollahian repeated claims that “The Islamic Republic of Iran has not and will not provide any weapon to be used in the Ukraine war.”

According to unconfirmed reports, the EU is set to sanction four entities and 11 high-ranking Iranian military and security officials for their roles in the repression of the uprising, ignited by the death in custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini.

During a phone conversation with Amir-Abdollahian on Friday, EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell urged the Islamic Republic to stop the repression of protesters and to release those detained since the uprising began in mid-September.

A senior EU official said Friday that the EU foreign ministers will meet in Luxembourg on Monday also to discuss the transfer of Iranian drones to Russia, noting that the ministers will not take any decisions on additional Iran sanctions but could reach a political agreement on future sanctions linked to a transfer of drones.

Despite reports that Tehran is sending out letters to EU diplomats, claiming that "bilateral relations may not survive" as the EU moves to penalize Iran for killing protesters, the uprising is garnering more and more support among Western government officials and politicians.