Observers In Tehran See Anti-Iran Coalition Forming, Urge Decisions

Speaking to the Israeli parliament’s defense and foreign affairs committee, Gantz referred both to a shared vision and a “program” that was “already operative.” Gantz said the visit to Israel and Saudi Arabia in mid-July of US President Joe Biden would “support this process.”

“I have been leading for the past year together with my colleagues at the Pentagon and the [Biden] administration an extensive program to strengthen cooperation between Israel and the countries of the region, under American leadership and Centcom [US Central Command, covering the Middle East],” Gantz said.

“Part of that vision is what I call MEAD, Middle East Air Defense, which we are building amid Iran’s attempts to hit the region’s countries with rockets, cruise missiles and UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones].”

Possibilities for coordinating air defense were reportedly discussed at the March meeting in Negev of foreign ministers from Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, Egypt, and the US.

Israel has been working to improve relations with the Persian Gulf monarchies especially since the 2020 ‘normalization’ agreements with Bahrain and the UAE, arguing they face a common threat in Iran. The Israelis link Syria, where Iranian presence in support of President Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah, and Yemen, where Iran backs Ansar Allah, known as the Houthis, fighting a Saudi coalition that intervened in the civil war seven years ago. Saudi Arabia has faced intermittent Houthi missile and drone attacks since 2019. Iran has been accused of supplying the weapons to the Houthis.

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Rather than following Bahrain and the UAE in ‘normalizing’ relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia has stuck to Arab League policy of insisting Israel first accepts a viable Palestinian state.

‘Powerful responses’

Gantz addressed a sense among many Israeli politicians that tensions with Iran are worsening, especially after the alleged killings of Iranian scientists and officers by Israel. He said he had ordered “powerful responses” prepared after reports Iran would kidnap Israelis in Turkey. His remarks came hours after Israeli authorities suspected an Iranian cyberattack had triggered rocket sirens in Jerusalem and Eilat Sunday.

Gantz said the Israeli government has been successful in “enlisting international support in our struggle against Iran in recent months," which he said included “our efforts to keep the designation of a terror organization, for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and in the condemnation of Iran by the IAEA.”

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Year-long talks in Vienna aimed at reviving the 2015 international agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear program have been paused since March, reportedly because the US has refused Tehran’s request to remove its Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), around half its defense forces, from Washington’s list of ‘foreign terrorist organizations.’ Israel opposed the 2015 deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which the US left in 2018.

Europe Backs Restoring JCPOA

Addressing Gantz’s remarks on air defense, an Israeli official said “partner countries” were synchronising efforts through electronic communication rather than using the same physical facilities. Some US-based analysts have suggested Washington is fostering closer cooperation between Israel and Arab Gulf States in order to help fill a gap left by the withdrawal of US hardware.

The Council of the European Union Monday agreed a document, ‘Council conclusions on a strategic partnership with the Gulf’, that welcomed “recent positive steps, including…the normalization agreements with Israel…and the recent agreement on a truce and on confidence building measures in Yemen as a major development, offer opportunities for improved wider regional security and stability.”

But the EU also reiterated support for the “restoration and full re-implementation” of the JCPOA, which it said had “the potential to contribute positively to regional prosperity and security.”

"Even today, we are ready to return to Vienna to reach a good deal if Washington fulfils its commitments," foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said at his weekly televized news conference.

But a good deal for Iran means something very different from what the US says is possible. Year-long talks stalled in Vienna in March, reportedly because of Iran’s insistence to remove its Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) from the US list of Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO).

The Biden Administration that came to office with a promise to restore the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, says that it is ready to lift nuclear-related sanctions imposed by its predecessor and does not want to discuss “extraneous issues,” meaning sanctions imposed by the Trump administration over support for terrorism or other violations by Iran and Iranian entities.

Washington says it has made its final proposal to Tehran and awaits its decision. Even the Russian negotiator in the talks, Mikhail Ulyanov, says that 99 percent of all issues were resolved in Vienna before the negotiations stopped.

Middle East Eye reported on Sunday that Iran has dropped its demand for delisting the IRGC, “but has called for lifting of sanctions imposed by the US against Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters,” the economic empire of the IRGC, which itself is implicated in IRGC's terrorism role.

If such a proposal has indeed been made by Iran, it does not appear that Washington is ready to entertain it. Last week, the State Department once again rejected the introduction of issues “extraneous” to the JCPOA.

The administration’s diplomatic approach toward Iran has come under questioning by Republicans and some Democrats who believe no concessions should be made to Tehran. The White House has recently appeared a bit more confrontational with Iran, imposing new sanctions on companies and individuals accused of helping Tehran to circumvent US sanctions.

Iran’s nuclear policy and indeed foreign policy is under the full control of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei whose important pillar of support is the IRGC amid popular discontent and constant protests.

Khatibzadeh speaking about the achievements of the foreign ministry on Monday said, “The foreign ministry dedicated efforts to the lifting of sanctions. The foreign ministry has been the instrument of higher entities.” The term ‘higher entities’, in the Islamic Republic jargon, usually refers to the Supreme Leader and governmental bodies he controls, such as the Supreme National Security Council.

Speaking about President Joe Biden’s upcoming trip to the region, Khatibzadeh warned the United States and other countries “not to fall in a path designed” by Israel, which is most concerned about Tehran’s nuclear program and has vowed to stop its possible weaponization at any cost.

Iran’s efforts to improve ties with regional Arab countries which are also concerned about its nuclear, military and foreign policies, have not made much progress.

Khatibzadeh, speaking about diplomatic contacts with Saudi Arabia, the dominant Sunni power in the region, said it would be premature for Iran and Saudi Arabia to speak of reopening their embassies in each other's capitals, after they cut relation in early 2016.

Saudi Arabia, which has had cool relations with the Biden Administration is expected to use the president’s trip to change that.

"It is too early to talk about the reopening of embassies by Tehran and Riyadh," Khatibzadeh said, signalling that Iran’s relative isolation will continue.

Lapid office announced the snap visit on Sunday after months of warming ties between Israel and Turkey, adding that he would meet with Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu, who last month visited Israel.

Israeli officials and media began issuing the warnings in the end of May, citing suspected assassination or abduction plots by Iran, which has vowed to avenge the May 22 assassination of a Revolutionary Guards colonel in Tehran that it blamed on Israeli agents.

Earlier in the day, Israeli President Isaac Herzog thanked Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for “efforts to thwart (Iran’s) terrorist attacks against Israelis,” adding that “the threat has not yet passed and that the counterterror efforts must continue.”

On Saturday, Defense Minister Benny Gantz issued a statement reiterating that there is a serious risk of attacks on Israelis in Turkey by Iranian networks. 

Despite repeated statements from Israeli officials warning of impending Iranian attacks, Tehran has generally remained silent, but on Saturday, the Iranian and Turkish foreign ministers had their first phone call since the warnings.

Iranian state media said Cavusoglu has invited his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian to visit Turkey, without providing any time for the visit.

Ankara has reportedly warned the Islamic Republic against attacking Israelis in Turkey, saying it is not prepared to allow Iran to use its territory to carry out acts of terrorism against other nations.

Hardliner Iranian politicians have been suggesting that Tehran should withdraw from the NPT and even the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers known as the JCPOA as retaliation for being snubbed by the United Nations nuclear watchdog, the IAEA on June 8.

Jalil Rahimi Jahanabadi, a member of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee told Etemad Online website on Sunday [June 19] that the IAEA resolution does not carry any legal and political risks for Iran.

The 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors passed the critical resolution after it determined that Iran has not cooperated in an investigation of its past nuclear activities.

So far, the government’s response to the IAEA was to disconnect many monitoring devices installed at its nuclear facilities by the UN watchdog, which in of itself was a significant move. But the noise about leaving the NPT has remained at the level of hardliner agitators and lawmakers.

One day before the vote on the resolution, a top hardliner in Iran, Hossein Shariatmadari, running the Kayhan Daily proposed leaving the NPT. He is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s appointee at the flagship ultra-conservative newspaper, and many interpret his remarks as those endorsed by Khamenei’s office.

When the resolution passed on June 8, a large group of lawmakers also proposed to leave the NPT and stop cooperation with IAEA nuclear inspections and monitoring.

Later it was also revealed that former parliament speaker Ali Larijani and Supreme Council of national Security Secretary Ali Shamkhani lashed out at ultraconservative Saeed Jalili after he voiced support at the Expediency Council for the idea of Tehran exiting the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).

But others among the Islamic Republic political elite warn that a drastic move against the NPT or the IAEA can send Iran’s nuclear file to the UN Security Council, which could lead to the restoration of international economic sanctions against the country. Those sanctions imposed in late 2000s and early 2010s carried the weight of the Security Council and were lifted only after Iran agreed to the 2015 nuclear deal, the JCPOA.

Jahanabadi, who appears to be one of the cautious politicians, tried to explain that the other lawmakers are making suggestions to the presidential administration, and it is not a process of forcing the executive to take steps on the issue of the NPT. He said that lawmakers are thinking to end voluntary cooperation with IAEA in the framework of the Additional Protocol and not within the NPT.

“Exiting the NPT for a country that has no intention to produce nuclear weapons, is not sensible,” he said. “Iran is not after inviting international challenges, and we should be aware that exiting the NPT will not solve any of our problems. Instead, it will provide an excuse for Westerners,” Jahanabadi added.”

He went on to say that Iran has no reason to go “from bad to worse”. If the IAEA shows no flexibility “exiting the NPT becomes an option, but we should not rush into these kinds of options now.”

Israeli officials and media began issuing the warnings in the end of May and intensified alerts at the beginning of this week. Defense Minister Benny Gantz issued his latest statement on Saturday reiterating that there is a serious risk of attacks on Israelis in Turkey by Iranian networks.

“I call on all Israelis in Turkey to obey the instructions of the security forces,” Gantz said in a statement published by his office Saturday evening, adding, “Israel is working to thwart Iranian attempts to carry out an attack, and is preparing to respond forcefully to any attack on Israeli citizens — anywhere."

But Iranian officials have not directly responded to the serious accusations. Only Tasnim news agency affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard commented that the Israeli warnings to its citizens is “psychological war” against Iran.

Several individuals affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard have been killed or died mysteriously in recent weeks in Iran. These incidents are attributed to a covert war waged by Israel inside Iran. On Sunday, the hardline Resalat newspaper called for a hard response inside Israel to protect Iran’s reputation as a power in the region, but no mention was made of Israeli warnings about attacks in Turkey.

Gantz’s warning came two days after an Israeli media report on June 16 that Turkey bluntly warned Iran not to use its territory for anti-Israeli acts.

So far there have been no incidents, but Israeli officials have been insisting that they are in close cooperation with Turkish security agencies to thwart any Iranian threat.

Although Turkish officials have been generally silent about the threat, but this could be due to the timing of the Israeli warnings coming at the beginning of Turkey’s tourism season. However, Ankara has not denied warnings of an Iranian threat coming from Israeli officials and media.

The silence from Tehran, however, might be more telling. The Islamic Republic finds itself in isolation, after earlier this month the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors representing 35 nations, in a resolution passed with overwhelming majority criticized Tehran for lack of cooperation in an ongoing investigation of its past nuclear activities.

The debate in Iran now is about how to deal with the situation at hand and with a possible threat of more punitive actions by the United States and its European allies on the nuclear issue.

Moreover, Iran’s internal situation is becoming more precarious, with the economy seemingly in chaos and daily anti-government protests continuing since early May.

With strong public frustration over high inflation and government mismanagement, Iran’s leaders know that the people see this from the prism of their confrontational foreign policy. This could be one reason why they prefer not to remind the people of adventures abroad.

It is also possible that they know if they try to deny the Israeli accusations, information about the existence of a real threat might be revealed.

Israel channel 12 on Saturday reported that Israel’s Mossad and Turkish intelligence services had thwarted an attack over the past day, but no details or concrete source was mentioned.

“There are Israelis who were minutes from death and do not know it,” an unnamed defense official told Channel 13 news on Saturday according to Times of Israel. “Another day where we let out a sigh of relief that the attack did not happen.”