Iran Reformist Leader Gives Up ‘Idea of Grabbing Power’

Fazeli, a sociologist who was fired from the Sharif University of Technology in Tehran in January for undermining the party line in his lectures, said "the government's competency, its social capital, and the international situation are three variables that determine the country's economic prospects."

He offered an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario. He ruled out that the government’s poor performance can improve, because a change in the combination of players is out of the question.

President Ebrahim Raisi came to office with the motto of hardliners uniting to run the government and his choice of officials is limited to leftovers of former controversial president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s aides.

In the light of public dissatisfaction with the Raisi administration, Fazeli argued that any improvement in the government’s standing should come with a change in its foreign policy to open doors for economic improvement. But so far there is no sign of a shift.

Although the paradoxical formula leaves little room for optimism, Fazeli said that there might be a tentative breakthrough if Iran reaches a nuclear agreement with the West, which would lend a new lease of life to the economy and help the government, similar to what happened after the nuclear deal in 2015.

Fazeli insisted that the benefits of an agreement would not last long as Donald Trump or someone like him could always win the presidency in the United States. During the short breakthrough, however, the government can put up a show of its competence by controlling inflation and prices, and boost the battered Iranian currency.

Nonetheless, Fazeli said that Iran is a country at the brink. The government needs political courage and honesty to confront interest groups who are used to getting unfair economic advantages.

Fazeli went on to say that the worst-case scenario will occur when government officials adopt policies or make statements that would erode its legitimacy further. The situation will become even worse if negotiations with the West are not fruitful and radicals take the upper hand in the government. This, he said, will lead to protests with unpredictable consequences.

Iran needs ‘a détente’

Meanwhile, Abdi, who regularly writes for Iran's reformist newspapers, said that Iran needs a process of detente in its international relations to reach a long-term solution for its nuclear crisis. However, he expressed doubt that such a change would occur in the new year.

Abdi added that Iran's economic problems need political rather than economic solutions. "We are talking about those political variables that will totally change the government's approach." He added that the key elements affecting Iran's situation include, foreign policy, domestic politics and managerial approaches which are interlinked.

A good solution to the nuclear question can give the economy a boost although its effect may not be as big as it was in 2015. However, a deal on the nuclear issue will not encourage foreign investment because the companies know that the situation may change in two years. Without a fundamental solution to the nuclear program, the economic crises will worsen, Abdi said.

On the domestic front, the hardliners' rise to power is irreversible. But the problem is that coalitions among hardliners are loose and unstable, so there is a chance that political instability and social tensions will rise. The year that just started will be a continued purgatory, he argued.

The managerial approach, which is based on reliance on managers less educated than average Iranians, cannot create any sustainable growth or boost employment. All they can do is wasting resources. This is the Iranian economy's main problem Abdi said, adding that even if nuclear talks lead to an agreement, not much can be done in the absence of good plans, management, and coordination.

In a recent interview, Ruhollah Mo’men-Nasab -- a former head of Culture Ministry’s Digital Media Center and the current secretary of cyberspace activities of the Popular Front of Islamic Revolution Forces political party – talked about their tactics to disrupt the flow of information and tarnish the image of activists.

He is an outspoken opponent of social media platforms and free internet access, describing them as espionage tools, and has been a consultant and staunch supporter of the bill pushed by hardliners to limit internet in Iran, entitled 'Legislation to Protect Cyberspace Users'.

In a video of his remarks that surfaced last week, Mo’men-Nasab seems quite pleased with the result of their misinformation campaigns, elaborating that they made numerous counterfeit twitter accounts with photos and names of influential rights and political activists “who were against the revolution and interests” of the regime.

Describing the disinformation network as part of a psychological warfare, Mo’men-Nasab said they have made software for the tweets and retweets and had created at least 256 accounts to make the process faster and more effective.

Twitter and Facebook have been suspending or shutting down hundreds of Iranian fake accounts over recent years, suspected of spreading disinformation, even in during elections in the United States.

In an interview with Etemad Online on the occasion of the Iranian New Year published on Monday, Hashemi levelled some serious criticism and accusations at Raisi and his administration.

She argued that Raisi's managers and aides are mainly non-experts and populist figures whose ideas are against women and harmful to Iran's development, and this makes her concerned.

Faezeh Hashemi, who is the daughter of former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, charged that Raisi has put Iran back on the same track that was laid by populist former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Hashemi has been outspoken against many policies of the Islamic Republic since her father was sidelined by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei more than a decade ago and her family put under pressure.

Expressing her ideas about the most successful Iranians of the year, Hashemi maintained that "there were no successful politicians last year. They mainly repeated their usual mistakes. But I dare say that women, the underprivileged and all those who took to the streets to put forward their demands from the government were influential figures."

Hashemi's solution for getting rid of populism was prioritizing expertise over pretending to be a revolutionary. However, she argued there was no hope in reform, saying that "Iran's [establishment] reformists are in comma."

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Asked about the worst and best events of the previous year, Ms. Hashemi said: "The worst thing that happened in the last Iranian year was that Iran stood with Russia and the Taliban and whitewashed their mischiefs. It was also bad that we had an "engineered" presidential election, more people died in custody, and the Judiciary did nothing to combat ‘honor killings.’ At the same time, there were more lies and populist policies and Iranians had to face more economic hardship."

"Covid vaccination after months of delays…the people's refusal to vote in an engineered election, the women's movement’s opposition to compulsory hijab, preventing the parliament to restrict Internet access and Iranians' activism on social media were among the good events of the past year," she said.

Asked what grade she would give the Raisi administration on a scale of zero to twenty, she said: "Even a 2 would be too much." However, she acknowledged that there are still moderate voices in the parliament that oppose radicalism.

In another development, conservative politician and former lawmaker Mansour Haghighatpour, assessed the performance of the parliament (Majles) during the past year in an interview with Nameh News website. He said the parliament lacked the expertise required to deal with the country's urgent problems. He charged that most Iranian lawmakers lack experience and expertise and behave in a naive way. He argued that a policy of putting younger people in parliament backfired because of their lack of knowledge and experience.

Haghighatpour questioned the parliament's ability to make sound economic decisions in particular, mentioning examples in budgetary matters.

Like many other current and former lawmakers, Haghighatpour, who is close to former Majles Speaker Ali Larijani, said the weakest point of the current parliament is its poor performance in supervising the presidential administration. "The government plans every move by itself and carries them out without seeking the parliament's views."

Without naming Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei Gholamali Jafarzadeh Imanabadi said those who "engineered" the June 2021 presidential election and brought a man to power who still needs to learn the basics of economics should be accountable for his failures.

Raisi, a cleric with just elementary school education, was Khamenei’s choice for president and all his serious rivals were barred from running in the June 2021 vote.

Raisi should know that he is the president of 85 million Iranians, Imanabadi, who supported Raisi last year, said, and that he does not represent only the 15-17 million people who voted for him despite his limited abilities.

Zayban Ghabishavi, the Iranian journalist who interviewed Imanabadi for Rouydad24 news website, wrote: "Raisi has been in office for more than seven months now, but nothing appears to have changed during this period. Criticism of Raisi and his economic teams still remain unanswered, and there is no hope in any improvement in the performance of the government."

She added that "the lack of executive experience on the part of Raisi and his cabinet indicates that the situation will get even worse." Ghabishavi quoted Imanabadi as having said: "None of Raisi's promises have been met,” and the few things he has done so far have never been the people's priority.

Accountable to people

According to Imanabadi, Raisi has not done anything other than wasting his time by blaming the Rouhani administration for all the shortcomings. The lawmaker added that throughout the past seven months Raisi's advisers misled him and the people.

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"Raisi should know that he has to give a report to the people this coming summer about the progress he has made," Imanabadi said, while pointing out that the people's dire financial situation during the Iranian New Year (Noruz) holidays revealed the decline in their purchasing power. "He wanted to eliminate poverty, but the people have become poorer during the past seven months, and the situation is going to look much worse in the future."

Imanabadi particularly criticized the government for failing to pay millions of Iranian pensioners until the last hour before the holidays.

Meanwhile, he said Raisi had claimed that he has a 7,000-page plan to run the economy. "I wish he presented only seven pages of that plan to the public," he said. He added that Iran lawmakers expected Raisi to take action to replace the ministers of labor and economy and the chairman of the Planning and Budget Organization and not wait for the Majles to impeach them.

Did you come from Mars?

The lawmaker, who was once one of Raisi’s staunch supporters, said that he is certain at least 30 percent of those who voted for him have been disappointed. He added that the government's slogans are based on illusions rather than realities. "You have not come from Mars. You have been holding official positions during the past 30 years, and still, you fail to realize that you are responsible for the current situation."

He said Raisi does not allow reporters to accompany him during his provincial tours because he fears they might record his blunders and let the public know about t. He added that government officials do not allow any criticism, and target anyone who dares to criticize them.

Meanwhile, the lawmaker called on Raisi to explain how he can claim to manage the economy independent of the nuclear negotiations and lifting of US sanctions. He also asked Raisi to explain Iran's over-reliance on Russia. But first and foremost, he has to change his economic team. He must realize that many mechanics, tailors, hairdressers, doctors and nurses are leaving this country" because of the poor performance of the government's economic team.

Earlier, many politicians, lawmakers and analysts, including Reformist activist Gholamali Rajaei had also called on Raisi to change the members of his economic team. Rajaei had called the Raisi administration "the most incapable cabinet since the 1979 Islamic revolution."

Meanwhile, Iranian economists such as Hossein Raghfar had warned that "national interests and the interests of 85 million Iranians are not on the Raisi administration's agenda."

Minister Bahram Einollahi said on Sunday that manufacturers will no longer receive cheap dollars from the government to import raw materials, meaning they should buy dollars at a fivefold higher rate on the exchange market.

The public relations manager prof the ministry said, however, that the change hasn’t been finalized yet and the supply of medicine with cheap dollars is still going on.

Social media users say such a decision would be “an obvious and deliberate act of mass murder!”

Earlier in March, Iran’s parliament decided to scrap an annual subsidy of up to $15 billion for essential food and medicines, despite warnings of more inflationand hardship, but there were speculations that the government would make an exception for medicine.

The idea to eliminate the subsidy emerged after hardliner president Ebrahim Raisi (Raeesi) assumed office in August and could count on backing from conservatives and ultra-conservatives in control of Iran’s parliament.

The subsidy was introduced in April 2018 when former US president Donald Trump signaled his intention to withdraw from the Obama-era nuclear agreement with Iran known as JCPOA, and Iran’s national currency began to nosedive. Prices for imported goods skyrocketed and the government decided to provide cheap dollars to importers of essential goods to keep prices low.