Iran Plans Next Budget On Assumption Of Continuing Sanctions

In a statement published on the ‘Kalemeh’ Telegram social-media channel Sunday, Abolfazl Ghadiani wrote that “all of the suppressive bodies…and their commanders are responsible for the [attack on] the peaceful, civil and non-violent protest of the people of Esfahan, but the central figure responsible for this aggression and the atrocities committed is Iran's dictator Ali Khamenei who must be held accountable.”

Ghadiani who was a political prisoner both during the monarchy and the Islamic Republic, blames the government for mismanaging water resources and accused security forces of setting fire to the tents of farmers protesting against a lack of water in the dry riverbed of Zayandeh Roud Thursday.

Ghadiani, who was imprisoned on charges of "propaganda against the regime" and "insulting the Supreme Leader" after the disputed 2009 presidential election, said security forces had “wounded a large number of protestors.”

Hasan Karami, a police commander, said Sunday that 2-3,000 "opportunists" had joined Friday's protests and that 67 had been arrested. The United States-based Center for Human Rights in Iran said Monday that at least 214 including 13 children had been arrested in total during the “recent protests.”

Social media users have posted photos of people with shotgun pellet injuries to their backs, legs and faces, including an old man with multiple pellet injuries to his back and a young boy who they claim lost both his eyes.

Iran International TV has obtained radiology images of a protester with tens of pellets embedded in his head, neck, and upper torso.

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A medical official told Iranian state television Saturday that 40 people had been treated for eye injuries sustained during the protests, with 19 hospitalized. He did not specify how the injuries were sustained.

Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei said in a meeting of the judiciary's supreme council Monday that people had a right to look for solutions to their problems but warned them to be wary of the "enemies’ moves" and refuse to allow them to "infiltrate their ranks.”

He suggested that "ignorant people, ill-wishers and agents of foreign powers" had taken advantage of the protests seeking to "disturb people's peace and security."

Brigadier-General Abolfazl Shekarchi, spokesman of the armed forces, said that the “enemy wrongly thinks that the citizens of the Islamic Republic have turned their backs on it, do not want the authorities, and seek regime change."

Kayhan newspaper reported Sunday that "America's foot soldiers" had perverted the water protests to "sow unrest and reap sanctions" ahead of Vienna nuclear talks, which resumed Monday.

The Central Bank of Iran says people who had to renew leases in the past six months had to accept huge rent increase demands by landlords or move outside big cities, where they could find comparably cheaper housing.

The huge in crease in rents is coupled with more than 60 percent jump in food prices that impacts low-income and salaried workers most. As high double-digit inflation has dogged Iranians since 2018 when the United States imposed sanctions, salaries have not kept pace with the cost of living. In three years, salaries have barely doubled while each year compound inflation has weakened purchasing power.

As an example, if in 2018 an item jumped from 10-15 dollars, in 2019, 50-percent inflation meant that it jumped to $22.5 and in 2020 it rose to $34. Cumulatively persistent annual inflation made the item more than three times more expensive, while salaries rose much slower.

The highest rent increase was in the capital Tehran where it shot up by 50-55 percent this year. Residential prices also rose to about 320,000 million rials for each square meter or about $120 per square foot.

Interestingly while this has also tripled in about three years in local currency, it has remained the same calculated in US dollars, because the local currency keeps losing value. On Monday, the dollar was trading at more than 290,000 rials on the open market, when three years ago it was one-third of that.

Tenants started two signature collection campaigns in August and September asking the government to intervene and control rents, but except lifting of US sanctions and fundamental economic reforms, there is little the government can do.

While Islamic Republic officials claim that Iran has withstood pressure from the United States’ sanctions, in fact it is the people who have endured the brunt of the economic crisis. By some estimates, about 50 percent of Iranians are now considered poor. Many of them were part of the middle class just three years ago.

Consumption of nutritious food such as meat, dairy products and fruits has declined, with wage earners making around 100-150 dollars a month. For foreigners, prices in Iran might seem low, with beef at around $2 a pound, but for a family of three on a $100 monthly income, meat is out of reach, except maybe a limited quantity once every two weeks.

Some former politicians and public figures have warned of serious discontent and possible unrest, cautiously pleading with the country’s leaders to reach agreement with the United States to remove the crippling sanctions, but the ruling hardliners keep promising things will get better and boasting of military and nuclear advances.

Saeed Farhadinia, special prosecutor in the international crimes division of Iran’s judiciary told local media on Monday that Soleimani’s case file remains open and is based on several legal principles, including international conventions against terrorism.

He also cited a friendship treaty between Iran and the United States from the 1950s, when Tehran was Washington’s ally. The Trump administration abrogated the agreement in 2018.

Former president Donald Trump ordered Soleimani’s killing citing threat of terror attacks against US forces and interests in the Middle East. Soleimani was Iran’s top military and intelligence operator in the region.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other officials have repeatedly called for revenge for the assassination and Trump has been mentioned as target number one.

Farhadinia said that Iran has no way of bringing the suspects it has identified to trial. Although he did not mention any names, the indicted individuals are assumed to be mostly US and Israeli officials.

Under the swap deal, Iran will receive gas from Turkmenistan and deliver an equivalent amount to Azerbaijan at the Astara border, Iranian Oil Minister Javad Owji told state TV.

"Turkmenistan will sell 5-6 million cubic meters of gas per day to Azerbaijan under the trilateral agreement signed ...in Turkmenistan," IRNA said.

Owji also said Iran was moving to resolve a lingering gas debt dispute with Central Asia's Turkmenistan, which said in late 2017 that it was owed $1.8 billion in payments for gas delivered to Tehran.

"We will soon pay the first instalment to clear the gas debt that we owe to the Turkmen side, after talks that were held earlier," Owji said, without giving the amount of the debt.

Iran has major natural gas fields in the south but has imported gas from Turkmenistan since 1997 for distribution in its northern provinces, especially during the winter.

Iran’s gas production is gradually declining due to lack of new investments and technology needed. There have been serious gas shortages in the past two years, leading to power cuts.

Reporting by Reuters

Hardline politician Saeed Jalili who once led Iran's nuclear negotiators under former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a far-right politician entertaining the idea. He was the ultraconservative Paydari Party's candidate for Presidency in 2013, set up workgroups within the frameworks of a shadow government when he lost the presidential election to former President Hassan Rouhani.

Although Rouhani never paid any attention to what Jalili and his hardline faction were up to, Jalili continued his work throughout the eight years of Rouhani's presidency and some Iranian media maintain that what President Ebrahim Raisi presented as his plans were the research papers compiled by Jalili's shadow government.

According to lawmaker Ali Khezrian, a member of the parliament presidium, Jalili has been recently holding meetings with members of the Iranian parliament discussing issues including policymaking and combating financial corruption.

Meanwhile, IRGC-linked news agency Tasnim also reported that at one of those meetings, Jalili suggested that with lack of financial resources, the Raisi administration should reclaim foreign currencies put at the disposal of businesses at the preferential rate of 42,000 rials per dollar if those businesses have violated regulations. He also suggested that the foreign currency taken back in this way should be divided among the people.

The cheap dollars for businesses importing food and medicine amid US sanctions is meant to be a subsidy, but it has not helped to keep prices low. There are serious allegations that some individuals and companies have received the cheap currency and imported luxury goods.

One of the ideas put forward by Jalili is "the ideal food basket for Iranians," which is another name for subsidizing foodstuff for low-income Iranians. The idea includes using cell phones and smart cards and linking them with a cash subsidy outlet that would channel funds directly to low-income individuals to buy food.

Food prices have soared by more than 60 percent compared to last year and have left at least one-third of the population struggling to have enough basic food. Meat, fruit and dairy consumption has declined as millions of people cannot afford the high prices.

Jalili's idea of helping the financially hard-hit low-income Iranians is very similar to the ideas of Behzad Nabavi, a far-left politician who heads the umbrella organization of Iran's reform parties.

When Nabavi first introduced the idea, he said he is not shy about returning to the coupon system he had introduced for essential commodities during the eight-year-long war with Iraq in the 1980s. He believes it is essential to provide the key commodities at low cost for the less privileged people. When he first introduced the coupons in the 1980s, Iran's conservatives accused him of being a communist. He says, he does not mind if the same label is used to characterize him once again.