Trump would walk away from bad deal with Iran, Israeli minister says

Iran has proposed holding a meeting with the European parties to the 2015 nuclear agreement, possibly in Rome this Friday, if its talks resume with the United States, Reuters reported on Monday citing four diplomats.

"It is important to remain on the same page with all parties to the 2015 deal. Therefore, meeting the E3 countries this week ahead of the next round of talks with Americans would be useful," Reuters reported citing an Iranian official.

However, the diplomats said that the Europeans had not yet responded to the proposal.

The E3 were assessing whether it was in their interest to meet Iran now or wait to see how talks with Washington developed, European and Western diplomats were quoted as saying.

After the third round of Iran-US talks in Muscat, Omani officials said another round of negotiations could take place on May 3, although no official decision has been made yet.

Iran says the new round will be held in Europe but the Omani mediators have yet to decide the venue.

The third round of talks took place in Muscat on Saturday, marking the first time that technical experts engaged directly.

Although the initiation of technical discussions is a positive development, addressing detailed issues exposed deep divisions, slowing the momentum. Statements by Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi were notably cautious, signaling limited optimism.

Araghchi emphasized the substantial gap between the two sides' demands, noting that goodwill alone will not bridge it. Talks are scheduled to continue next week at both expert and chief negotiator levels.

Potential breakthrough?

Despite the uncertainties, a deal could be easier to forge compared to the one in 2015, for several reasons:

1. Regional dynamics have shifted, with Arab states now largely supporting an agreement.
2. Iran’s frozen assets are significantly lower—$10–20 billion today, compared to $80–150 billion in 2015.
3. Iran’s regional influence through proxy groups has weakened.
4. Domestic unrest has eroded the IRI’s internal position, increasing its incentive to negotiate.
5. The reduced intensity of US-Russia rivalry removes a complicating factor.
6. The US-China trade war may hamper Washington’s ability to apply maximum pressure.

Both Washington and Tehran prefer a diplomatic outcome over military confrontation. However, historical, political, and ideological differences complicate the path forward.

Core obstacles

First, the legacy of mistrust remains deep. Decades of conflict, sanctions, and failed diplomacy have hardened suspicions on both sides.

President Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 deal heightened Iranian concerns about American reliability. Meanwhile, US officials remain wary of Iran’s actions. Any agreement would require both sides to genuinely believe that commitments will be honored—an especially tall order given the political volatility in both countries.

Second, Tehran is unwilling to fully dismantle its nuclear infrastructure, resisting a repeat of Libya’s disarmament model. It may agree to reduce uranium enrichment and degrade highly enriched stockpiles but will preserve advanced centrifuge capabilities.

Iran’s regional influence, although waned, still concerns Washington, particularly with regard to Israel. Many in Benjamin Netanyahu's cabinet believe the current window offers a rare chance to cripple Iran’s nuclear capabilities and may push for covert or limited military operations to derail negotiations.

European powers are another factor. Britain, Germany, and France, alarmed by Iran’s growing military cooperation with Russia, are considering reimposing UN sanctions if no progress is made. Though not directly involved in current talks, their support will be critical to any final agreement.

Sanctions are another obstacle. While economic pressure has hurt Iran deeply, many sanctions, particularly those linked to terrorism, were codified by Congress and cannot be lifted by the administration alone. A complex framework for phased sanctions relief will be necessary.

Interim agreement?

In sum, while opportunities for a breakthrough exist, formidable challenges remain. Mistrust, nuclear safeguards, regional tensions, domestic politics, and sanctions enforcement all complicate diplomacy.

An interim agreement—laying the groundwork for a broader, binding deal—appears the most realistic short-term path.

Israel and the United States are in close, open contact over Tehran's disputed nuclear program, The Times of Israel reported on Monday citing an Israeli official.

“We have a dialogue with the Americans, the dialogue is not one-sided and we also express positions,” the official was quoted as saying.

“There is an ongoing dialogue on many levels. I would urge you to avoid premature conclusions. There is a good, intimate relationship between the governments.”

Many young women are missing following the deadly explosion at Rajaei port, said a labor official on Monday.
“Three female workers were confirmed dead and one remained missing, while numerous families have reported their daughters lost at the site,” Esmail Hajizadeh, executive secretary of the Hormozgan Workers' House, told ILNA news outlet.

He added that many truck drivers are also unaccounted for.
"Families are wandering the port, desperately searching for their children," Hajizadeh said.

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Revived US-Iran nuclear negotiations risk empowering Iran and accelerating a strategic shift away from Washington’s traditional influence in the Middle East, according to an analysis by Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.

Arab states, particularly in the Persian Gulf, have adopted a cautious stance toward the talks, not out of trust in Tehran but out of skepticism toward US reliability, political analyst Dalia Ziada wrote. "The muted Arab response is a hedging strategy."

Meanwhile, regional powers are advancing their own nuclear programs. Egypt is building a Russian-backed civilian nuclear plant at El Alamein and has recently conducted its first-ever joint military exercise with China, the article pointed out.

Saudi Arabia’s atomic energy project is progressing, with Riyadh exploring cooperation with China and Russia if the US does not allow domestic enrichment.

"Arab states are learning to live with ambiguity," Ziada wrote, adding that many are leveraging new relationships with Beijing and Moscow to balance Washington’s influence.