Russia likely to be influential in US-Iran talks, analyst says

Two main groups oppose any de-escalation of tensions between Iran and the United States, but the severe economic impact of sanctions will ultimately push Tehran towards a deal, according to Iranian analyst Sadegh Zibakalam.

Speaking to Rouydad 24 news website, Zibakalam identified the two opposing factions as those with deeply held anti-American and anti-Israel ideological beliefs, and those he termed sanctions profiteers who benefit from the continuation of the current strained relations.

"Basically, I think that in Iran, there are generally two groups or two currents present who are wholeheartedly opposed to any de-escalation with the United States and are not willing to accept ending anti-US slogans and exporting the revolution at all," Zibakalam said.

On the motivations of the sanctions profiteers, he said, "This group does not want Iran to move towards de-escalation and a kind of understanding and agreement with America so that sanctions are lifted; because a part of circumventing the sanctions is the responsibility of these individuals and this specific group, and since they do not want to give up these huge economic benefits, they will do anything to prevent Iran and America from reaching an agreement."

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A professor of international relations has suggested that the current "limbo" in Tehran-Washington relations will likely persist until mid-July, warning that Trump would react negatively if Iran were perceived to be stalling or being evasive in ongoing negotiations.

Shahram Kholdi, speaking to Iran International, said that “Trump does not like to be humiliated, and if he feels that the Islamic Republic is wasting time and being obstructive in the negotiations, he will react."

According to the analyst, the US president seeks an agreement with the Iranian government, but the extensive deployment of US forces and military equipment in the region indicates his distrust of the Islamic Republic.

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Tehran’s talk of welcoming US investment is likely a tactic to influence President Donald Trump psychologically rather than a genuine policy shift according to Sara Bazoobandi, an associate at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies.

"This rhetoric ties into the narrative the Islamic Republic has crafted based on a kind of psychological profile of Mr. Trump,” she told Iran International.

"They think that just as the US has used a carrot-and-stick approach to try to bring the Islamic Republic to the table, they too can stir Trump’s emotions for negotiation," she added.

Iran approached negotiations with the United States out of weakness and desperation, Abbas Milani, director of the Iranian Studies Center at Stanford University told Iran International.

"The negotiations indicate that the Islamic Republic is in absolute weakness, in complete desperation," Milani said.

He called Iran's insistence on indirect talks childish and “more foolish and damaging than direct negotiations,” arguing that Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, are fully aware of the Islamic Republic's vulnerability.

“They will negotiate on all issues,” Milani said, adding that Iran is at its “weakest point—reviled by the people, isolated in the region and trapped in a massive economic crisis.”

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's oft stated mantra of "no war and no negotiations" with the United States became untenable when US President Donald Trump gave a stark ultimatum that he reach a nuclear deal or face attack.

Read the full analysis here.

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