Trump hits Mideast with sonic boom of a Gaza takeover plan

On Tuesday, Trump signed a directive reinstating the "maximum pressure" policy from his first term, warning of "catastrophic" consequences if Tehran doesn't reach a deal on its nuclear program. His goal of eliminating Iran’s oil exports is particularly alarming for Tehran, as it would eliminate nearly half of the government's revenues during a seven-year economic crisis.

In its first move, the US Treasury Department on Thursday imposed sanctions on an international network, alleging that it has facilitated the shipment of Iranian oil to China. In a coordinated step, the Treasury and State Departments announced sanctions targeting networks involved in shipping Iranian oil to China. The measures cover multiple countries, including China, India, and the United Arab Emirates, and affect several vessels linked to Iran's oil exports.

While the impact of this order, if fully implemented, would be significant for Iran’s oil exports, there is doubt as to whether it will actually reduce the oil exports to zero or to the levels seen in 2020, the final year of Trump's previous presidency. In 2017, before US sanctions were imposed, Iran exported 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd). By 2020, this figure had plummeted to around 350,000 bpd.

As Joe Biden took office in 2021, Iran’s oil exports rebounded, peaking at nearly 1.9 million bpd in the summer of 2024. After President Biden administration’s imposed sanctions on dozens of tankers involved in smuggling Iranian oil, exports dropped by 500,000 bpd in the final quarter of 2024.

Yet, in January this year, exports once again surged to 1.6 million bpd.

The ship-tracking company Tanker Trackers told Iran International that the recent fluctuations in Iran’s oil exports are typical, noting that such variations are common. "We saw a similar drop during the final months of Biden's presidency, followed by a rebound. There's nothing unusual about it. The average for crude oil exports over the past year is 1.572 million barrels per day, and since January, it has been 1.567 Mbpd. So, it's too early to draw conclusions," the company said.

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Regarding Iran's logistical challenges, Tanker Trackers explained, "There are policies, and then there are logistics. We’re not yet convinced that Iran’s oil exports will drop to the levels seen in May 2019 (439 Kbpd), mainly because there wasn’t an extensive global dark fleet available back then, unlike what we have today."

The United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) organization, a non-profit group dedicated to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, in collaboration with tanker-tracking companies, has identified nearly 400 vessels involved in smuggling Iranian oil, collectively known as the "dark fleet." However, fewer than half of these vessels have been sanctioned.

These tankers attempt to smuggle Iranian oil covertly by turning off their automatic identification systems (AIS).

Currently, China is virtually Iran’s only oil customer. However, it does not purchase oil directly from Iran. Instead, Iranian oil is sold through intermediaries and changes ownership documentation, being rebranded as oil from Iraq, the UAE, Oman, and especially Malaysia before being sold to China’s small, independent refineries.

Tanker Trackers noted that China has already stated repeatedly that importing oil is a matter of national security, regardless of the source.

Meanwhile, the energy consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie told Iran International that the recent drop in Iranian crude oil exports is due to a combination of tighter sanctions on tankers imposed by former President Biden and China’s Shandong port declaring that sanctioned vessels will not be allowed to discharge their cargoes to independent refinery clients.

Wood Mackenzie said that given the recent US sanctions on China and Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs, we do not expect China to comply with Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ policy on Iran.”

Senior commodity analyst Homayoun Falakshahi from Kpler, a commodities intelligence firm, told Iran International that Iran’s daily oil exports stood at 1.66 million bpd last month. However, he predicted that due to the reinstatement of Trump’s maximum pressure policy, exports could fall to around 500,000 bpd in the coming months.

He added that the extent of this decline depends on Beijing’s cooperation with US sanctions.

China and the US conduct $750 billion in annual commodity and service trade, heavily favoring China. However, Trump recently ordered an increase in tariffs on Chinese imports, prompting Beijing to threaten retaliation.

While China has repeatedly stated that it does not recognize US unilateral sanctions against Iran, its recent ban on US-sanctioned vessels docking at its ports suggests that it takes Washington’s sanctions somewhat seriously.

Iran’s share of China’s oil imports exceeds 10%, with an annual value of around $40 billion. China is also the largest buyer of sanctioned Iranian goods, including metals and petrochemical products. Additionally, a significant portion of Iranian refined petroleum products, such as fuel oil (mazut) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), is shipped to China.

Iranian customs data shows that, excluding crude oil, the country exported $12.3 billion worth of goods to China and imported $14.4 billion from China in the first ten months of the current Iranian calendar year (which began on March 21, 2024).

Speaking after meeting with newly elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in Beirut, Ortagus said Hezbollah’s involvement in Lebanon’s new government crosses a clear red line for Washington.

"We are committed to making sure that Hezbollah is not a part of this government in any form and that Hezbollah remains disarmed and militarily defeated. That starts with the pressure President Trump is placing on the Islamic Republic of Iran so they can no longer fund their terror proxies in the region," Ortagus said.

Her remarks come as Lebanon’s political landscape experiences what experts have called a seismic shift, with the election of US- and Arab-backed Aoun as president and Hezbollah reeling from its bruising defeats at the hands of Israel.

"The end of Hezbollah’s reign of terror in Lebanon and around the world has started, and it’s over," she said.

Ortagus emphasized that the US will continue efforts to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear capabilities and from destabilizing countries across the Middle East. "Iran was allowed to inflict chaos and harm in this country and so many others for decades, that ends with President Trump," Ortagus said.

Hezbollah suffered its most significant setbacks in years during Israeli strikes last year, with coordinated attacks in September and October decimating thousands of its operatives through precision airstrikes and targeted explosions. The killing of key figures, including Hassan Nasrallah, the group's longtime secretary-general, shattered Hezbollah’s leadership core and left its command structure in disarray.

Keen to limit Hezbollah's influence, Washington is reportedly exerting significant pressure on Lebanon’s political leadership.

As Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam works to form his cabinet, US officials are urging Beirut to block Hezbollah and its allies from securing key posts, particularly the finance ministry.

Citing sources, Reuters reported that Washington relayed that Lebanon could face difficulties securing foreign financial aid crucial for post-war reconstruction if Hezbollah or Amal—a Shia political party and longtime Hezbollah ally—were to select the country's next finance minister.

The Israeli premier praised Trump for pulling out of a deal on Iran's nuclear program, helping midwife a Gaza ceasefire deal freeing some Israeli hostages and restoring on Tuesday the so-called maximum pressure policy of sanctions on Iran from his first term.

"We see eye to eye on Iran. That's the same Iran that tried to kill us both. They tried to kill you, Mr. President, they tried, through their proxies, to kill me."

Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters launched a drone attack from Lebanon on Netanyahu's vacant seaside residence at the height of its conflict with Israel last year. US law enforcement accused Iran of seeking Trump's assassination as retaliation for his order to kill top Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020.

"The roar of the Lion of Judah is heard loudly throughout the Middle East," Netanyahu said. "Israel has never been stronger and the Iran terror axis has never been weaker."

An attack by Iran-backed Hamas militants on Israel from Gaza on Oct. 7, 2023 triggered a multi-front confrontation embroiling the Jewish state, Iran and the armed groups the Islamic Republic supports in the Middle East.

Over the course of the 15-month war which is now paused by the ceasefire, Israel throttled Hamas in Gaza, decapitated Hezbollah's leadership and helped bring about the downfall of the Assad dynasty in Syria, Iran's oldest Arab ally.

A direct attack on Iran on Oct. 26, 2024 knocked out much of its air defenses and left the Houthi group in Yemen its last largely undeterred affiliate in the region.

"We've devastated Hamas, we decimated Hezbollah, we destroyed Assad's remaining armaments and we crippled Iran's air defenses," Netanyahu added. "We've defeated some of America's worst enemies."

The Israeli premier cited the Americans among the over 1,200 Israelis killed by Hamas in its Oct. 7 attack and among the scores taken captive in Gaza.

"We're both committed to rolling back Iran's aggression in the region and ensuring that Iran never develops a nuclear weapon," Netanyahu continued.

"Mr. President, ladies and gentlemen, Israel will end the war by winning the war. Israel's victory will be America's victory. We will not only win the war working together, we will win the peace."

Trump has repeatedly vowed to not allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon and said he much prefers a diplomatic solution.

“The resistance has gone through a difficult and significant period; it must rebuild itself, rebuild its forces, and apply the lessons learned from this war," Abbas Araghchi told a news conference at a Gaza-related event in Tehran on Tuesday.

“We are confident that the resistance will return to the field stronger than before.”

His remarks come as Gaza faces widespread devastation following Israel’s military response to the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks.

Israeli bombardments and ground operations have left much of the enclave in ruins, with tens of thousands of Palestinians displaced.

A long-sought ceasefire-for-hostages deal was brokered on January 15 after intense negotiations in Doha, mediated by the United States, Egypt and Qatar.

Hamas seized control of the territory in 2007. The armed cadres and military infrastructure of group, designated a terrorist organization by the United States and Britain, have been pummeled by a devastating Israeli incursion into the enclave.

Araghchi said that so-called resistance groups must adapt now that the conflict in Gaza is paused. The array of Islamist armed factions in the occupied Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen have long been funded and armed by Tehran.

Israel decapitated the leadership of Hezbollah in Lebanon and helped bring about the downfall of the Assad dynasty in Syria, Iran's oldest Arab ally.

Still, Araghchi said Israel had been defeated in the conflict and described the ceasefire as tenuous.

"Some think that this regime, due to this feeling (of defeat), may take action and violate the ceasefire, which is not unlikely given the nature of the criminal Zionist regime."

“The resistance movement is a school of thought and ideology that cannot be eliminated with weapons,” Araghchi added. “Its main weapon is not conventional arms; it is the blood of the martyrs.”

Netanyahu’s office dismissed the claims as “a total lie that harms the families of the hostages,” Times of Israel reported.

The report alleged that Netanyahu’s plan included delaying negotiations with Hamas for several months while Trump approves an attack on Iran and seals a deal with Saudi Arabia, like those done with countries such as the United Arab Emirates under Trump in 2020.

Netanyahu is set to meet Trump on Tuesday, the first foreign premier to do so since his taking office, in an effort to reset ties after often strained relations with the Biden administration amid the war in Gaza.

The two leaders are expected to discuss the Gaza ceasefire and strategies to counter Iran, according to a statement released by Netanyahu's office.