US, Israeli diplomats warn over Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile

Foreign policy analyst Amir Ali Abolfath told the conservative Nameh News website in Tehran that Trump is almost certain to adopt a maximum pressure policy toward Iran. He noted that Trump would likely leverage the strength of the US economy and international bodies, such as the IAEA Board of Governors, to advance his hardline approach.

According to Nameh News, nearly all of the pessimistic assessments made by Iranian pundits are based on the combination of hardline political figures who have been named as the likely members of Trump's cabinet.

Abolfath stated that Trump believes his maximum pressure policy against Iran was not sustained under President Joe Biden and seeks to reinstate it. However, he questioned its potential effectiveness, remarking, "What Trump says is not important; we need to see what he can do."

Meanwhile, foreign policy analyst Qasem Mohebali told another Tehran website that the period of neither war nor peace for Iran’s Islamic government is over. Now it is time for either peace or war. Mohebali added, "Trump will most certainly offer to negotiate with Iran and will wait for Tehran's response. The situation is more complicated than eight years ago, and Iran needs to be careful not to turn the opportunity for negotiation into a threat."

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Mohebali said, "Eight years ago, Trump's policy hinged on harnessing Iran's nuclear activity and its influence in the region. With his maximum pressure policy, he tried to prevent Iran's access to financial resources needed to facilitate the country's development. However, that policy led to an escalation of tensions in the region and in Iran-US relations. Nonetheless, he is likely to resume his previous policy." Mohebali did not mention that Iran also needed the financial resources to maintain its proxy groups in the region that target Israel and US interests.

He noted that for the first time in 30 years, Republicans now control all key pillars of decision-making in the United States, a dynamic that could influence Tehran's relations with Washington. Mohebali suggested that this alignment might benefit Iran if Trump secures an agreement favorable to Tehran, as no one within the US political structure would be positioned to oppose or block his decision. Over the past three decades, Congress often had the power to obstruct deals made by presidents and their administration.

Over the next two months, Iran must consider all possibilities and prepare to negotiate if President Trump presents terms for a deal. Referring to Khamenei's "neither war nor negotiations" policy following Trump's 2018 withdrawal from the nuclear agreement, Mohebali suggested, without directly naming Khamenei, that this era has ended. He argued that Iran now faces a critical choice between war and peace, with Trump having the freedom to pursue either path.

Mehdi Motaharnia, another Iranian foreign policy analyst, said he believes the Trump administration will enter negotiations with Iran with all of its power. But this is going to be a negotiation much more difficult than holding talks with the Obama or Biden administrations.

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Motaharnia remarked that in his second term, "Trump aims to leave a lasting legacy both domestically and internationally. His team is made up of like-minded conservatives, and negotiating with Iran is a key objective of his foreign policy. However, he negotiates on his own terms, presenting both opportunities and threats during the process. These talks are unlikely to focus solely on the 2015 nuclear deal; instead, he seeks to broaden the scope to include other issues, aiming to extract as many concessions as possible."

However, Motaharnia cautioned that if Iran refuses to negotiate, the situation could become significantly more challenging. In such a scenario, the Trump administration may strengthen its ties with Tel Aviv, ensuring increased pressure on Tehran. This could leave Iran vulnerable to a range of difficulties.

The Iranian government appears to have its own conditions for potential negotiations. In an interview with the Mossallass website, Iranian government spokesperson Elias Hazrati stated, "Iran can negotiate with Trump if the United States refrains from interfering in Iran's internal affairs and does not target our interests. Since 1979, the United States has consistently sought to harm Iran with the intention of regime change."

This stance contrasts with Trump’s assertion that he does not pursue a policy of regime change in Iran.

The resolution, drafted by Canada on November 6, was passed with 77 votes in favor, 66 abstentions and 28 votes against in a Wednesday session.

Russia, China, Belarus, Armenia, Cuba, Iraq, Indonesia, Oman, Pakistan, Algeria and Syria were among the countries that voted against the resolution.

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The resolution condemned "the intensified, targeted repression of women and girls by the Islamic Republic of Iran, both online and offline, and the lack of accountability and justice measures for human rights violations perpetrated against women and girls."

It also expressed "serious concern at the discriminatory compulsory veiling laws and policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which fundamentally undermine the human rights of women and girls, expressed concern at the escalation in the enforcement of these laws and policies... and reaffirmed calls for all such laws and policies to be repealed."

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman on Wednesday condemned the resolution, calling it a politically motivated and unjustifiable move.

Iranian women are facing tougher crackdowns for refusing to wear the compulsory hijab amid Iran’s conflict with Israel.

Morality police are also back on the streets in larger numbers, having been scaled back since the death of a young woman named Mahsa Amini in their custody in 2022.

Witnesses report a stronger presence around Tehran’s central districts, describing police foot patrols, detention vans and police motorcycle patrols.

A widely publicized incident earlier this month at the Islamic Azad University in Tehran brought the issue of hijab defiance back into the global spotlight. In protest against enforcement measures on campus, a female student named Ahoo Daryaei, removed her clothing in defiance of security staff intervening over her hijab.

Daryaei was transferred to a psychological center shortly after her arrest, drawing accusations from activists that the government is attempting to undermine her protest by portraying her actions as a sign of mental illness.

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Strong condemnation of execution spree

The Wednesday resolution passed by the UN General Assembly also condemned "in the strongest terms the alarming increase in the application of the death penalty by the Islamic Republic of Iran in violation of its international obligations, including executions undertaken against persons on the basis of forced confessions and without fair trial and due process."

The resolution expressed "serious concern at the disproportionate application of the death penalty to persons belonging to minorities, particularly ethnic and religious minorities, who are targeted for death sentences relating to their alleged involvement in political or religious groups, and at the continued execution of women, which has reached the highest number of reported executions of women since 2013."

The resolution comes against the backdrop of the Islamic Republic's uptick in executions over the past few years. At least 711 people have been executed in Iran since January, according to the latest report by the Norway-based Iranian rights group Hengaw.

A Saturday report by Hengaw said that 13 of the 711 documented executions this year involved political prisoners. The group also documented 21 fatalities in Iran’s prisons in 2024, including four deaths of political detainees and eight deaths attributed to torture.

The activist, Roshanak Molaei, was detained almost three weeks ago after she thwarted a harasser in a military uniform on a moped while she walked down a north Tehran street, putting the man in a headlock and summoning a crowd of bystanders.

Authorities have not clarified the grounds for her detention or any charges she faces.

CCTV footage of the incident went viral on social media, adding to the already raging debate in Iran over gender rights and perceived official misogyny under the ruling Islamic theocracy.

Molaei had posted the video on her X account, captioning it: "Being a woman in Iran."

Tehran police confirmed the encounter and said the motorcyclist was referred to judicial authorities for “harassment of women” without saying if the man had been arrested or charged.

The apparent disparity between the treatment of Molaei and his harasser as well as Molaei’s continued detention has drawn criticism from women’s rights advocates, who question why the victim of harassment is being prosecuted.

Molaei was arrested in November 2022 during widespread women's rights protests known as the Woman Life Freedom movement. She was sentenced to five years in prison for acting against national security, insulting Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei and appearing in public without the mandatory hijab.

"I made a request for Iran to stop increasing the stockpile of 60%, and this was accepted," Grossi said in his report to the agency's Board of Governors in Vienna on Wednesday.

The IAEA chief said the agreement to freeze the 60% uranium stockpile does not imply an immediate resolution to broader concerns about Iran’s nuclear activities, however.

The agency remains unable to verify certain aspects of Iran’s program due to limited access following Tehran's cessation of its JCPOA-related commitments in early 2021.

Citing reports to the body's member states, Reuters reported that Iran has offered to cap its stock of near weapons grade nuclear fuel on condition that no censure resolution will be issued at a Wednesday meeting of the UN nuclear watchdog.

The confidential reports by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) say Tehran has made preparations to cap the stockpile at around 185 kg (407 lbs). Iran also agreed to consider accepting the appointment of four additional experienced IAEA inspectors after having banned around one third, last year.

Diplomats informed Reuters that Western powers are advocating for a censure resolution at the IAEA Board of Governors, despite Iran's reported offer. Similarly, The Wall Street Journal cited sources stating that France, Britain, and Germany (the E3) plan to proceed with the resolution during Wednesday's meeting.

In his latest report to the Board of Directors, the Director General of the IAEA said Iran's nuclear program has continued to grow, in spite of global sanctions. “Following my last report, Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched up to 20% and up to 60% U-235 continued to increase," he said.

The report also states that the IAEA's findings regarding particles of uranium of human origin at undeclared locations in Iran remain inconsistent, and the agency requires information about the current whereabouts of the nuclear materials or related contaminated equipment.

Grossi also addressed the destruction of a covert nuclear research facility of the Islamic Republic in Parchin following an Israeli attack, stating that the IAEA does not consider this site a nuclear facility, and there is no indication of nuclear material being present there.

Grossi visited Iran’s Fordow and Natanz enrichment facilities during his recent trip.

Referring to the long and turbulent process of monitoring Iran's nuclear program, he said "It takes effort, determination, and patience."

"This is not something that will be solved overnight," Grossi added.

While exchanges between Iran and the IAEA on verification measures are ongoing, Grossi acknowledged the need for "more information from Iran" to address the concerns comprehensively.

The foreign ministry's legal deputy was quoted by local media as saying, "We have clearly stated in advance that if the resolution is passed, we will respond decisively and immediately. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran is prepared to implement the decision in the very hour the resolution is approved."

The United States, Germany, France and Britain are adamant to pursue a censure resolution at the quarterly meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency for Tehran's lack of cooperation with the UN watchdog and other violations.

Foreign ministry's Kazem Gharibabadi blamed the sponsors of the resolution for disregarding Iran's recent gesture of promising to stop high-level uranium enrichment. "This move by Iran is, in fact, a response to the unconstructive approach of these few countries and their disregard for Iran's goodwill."

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The Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi on Wednesday called the foreign ministers of Brazil, South Africa, Bangladesh, Algeria, Burkina Faso, Pakistan - all on the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) - to warn against the adoption of the resolution put forward by Western powers.

"The push by France, Britain and Germany for a resolution against Iran would only weaken and disrupt the interactional processes between Iran and the Agency," Araghchi said, according to media reports in Iran.

He called on the member states voting on the resolution to block it.

Previous voting patterns suggest that proposals backed by the main Western countries easily pass. A successful resolution could pave the way for the three European powers to trigger a "snapback mechanism" to restore UN sanctions imposed on Iran before the 2015 nuclear deal.

The planned censure is due to be approved despite Tehran offering to cap its highly-enriched uranium stock.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi says that Iran has agreed to freeze its uranium stockpile enriched to 60% following his request during recent talks in Tehran.

"I made a request for Iran to stop increasing the stockpile of 60%, and this was accepted," Grossi said in his report to the agency's Board of Governors in Vienna on Wednesday. The freeze would not resolve broader issues about Iran’s nuclear activities, he added.

Iran began enriching uranium up to 60% after a 2015 international deal unraveled when Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from the agreement.

“The US concerns have been all along about Iran engaging in enriching uranium to 60%. We're very concerned about it,” US alternative ambassador to the United Nations Robert Wood told Iran International on Wednesday. “I know the IAEA Board is going to be looking at this issue. We're reviewing the report of IAEA Director-General."

The IAEA’s latest confidential report confirms that Iran has made preparations to cap its stockpile at around 185 kg, according to Reuters. Iran also agreed to consider accepting the appointment of four additional experienced IAEA inspectors after having banned around one third last year.