New Indo-Saudi Trade Route To Bypass Iran As Transit Hub

Ali Beitollahi, the head of the Seismology Center at the Housing and Urban Development Research Center, has revealed that in the event of an earthquake measuring seven on the Richter scale, approximately 60 percent of buildings in Iran could be destroyed.

Beitollahi explained that the Tehran-Karaj region, a densely populated area, faces a significantly higher risk. An earthquake with a magnitude of seven in the region alone could potentially result in the destruction of more than two million residential units, placing six million people in immediate danger.

The warning follows recent concerns expressed by Mehdi Pirhadi, a member of the Tehran Council, who emphasized the urgent need for building renovations in the capital to enhance earthquake resilience.

However, it is essential to recognize that the seismic risk is not limited to Tehran. Active fault lines stretch from Hamedan in the west to Gilan in the north, posing an imminent threat of a potentially catastrophic earthquake.

Iran, located at the convergence of the Arabian, Indian, and Eurasian tectonic plates, is renowned for its high seismic activity, making it one of the most earthquake-prone countries globally. The nation has witnessed several massive earthquakes in recent history, resulting in significant loss of life and substantial economic damage.

According to a report by Iran’s Labor News Agency, when considering minimum living standards, the cost of living has surged to 194 million rials, equivalent to approximately $400 per month. However, when factoring in housing expenses, particularly in Tehran, the cost of living exceeds a daunting 230 million rials, approximately $460 monthly.

Major industrial cities such as Mashhad, Esfahan, and Tabriz also witness high costs of living ranging from 200 to 220 million rials per month.

Currently the minimum wage in Iran is about $150 a month and the average income of people is between $150 to $250. Key workers remain at the bottom of the pay scale. Iran's Teachers' Association recently said that a third of the country's educators earn less than $200 a month, meaning many are fleeing for work abroad.

One of the primary contributors to Iran's economic turmoil is the drastic depreciation of its currency, the rial. Just over a year ago, the rial was trading at approximately 300,000 to the US dollar. However, in early May, it plummeted to as low as 550,000 rials to the dollar, and currently hovers around 490,000 rials to the dollar. This catastrophic devaluation of the rial directly reflects the nation's inflationary crisis.

Iran heavily relies on imports for essentials like food, animal feed, medicines, raw materials, and finished goods. As the local currency continues to lose value, the cost of imports escalates, ultimately leading to higher prices for consumers. This, in turn, places an additional burden on Iranian households already grappling with soaring living costs.

Ahmadreza Ameri, during an interview with ILNA, shed light on the increasing interest of individuals with higher education backgrounds, including pilots, in obtaining commercial drivers' licenses as a strategic move towards migration opportunities. He admitted, "Today, we see individuals with higher education, including pilots, who are seeking to obtain a commercial drivers' license for migration."

This unconventional career shift among pilots is driven by the realization that possessing the license opens doors to opportunities in the cargo transportation sector, enabling them to work as bus or truck drivers. Importantly, several countries are currently offering attractive incentives, including residence permits and competitive salaries, often amounting to several thousand dollars, to drivers in the cargo transportation industry.

The desire for migration from Iran has been on the rise in recent years, encompassing not only educated professionals but also individuals from various occupational backgrounds such as the healthcare sector. Several factors contribute to the trend, including political and economic instability, rampant systemic corruption, the adverse effects of sanctions, a depreciating national currency, and inflation.

The Iran Migration Observatory's latest annual outlook underscores the scale of this migration phenomenon. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) stands out as the host to the highest number of Iranians living abroad, with over 450,000 Iranian-born residents. This is followed by countries such as the United States, Canada, Germany, Turkey, and the United Kingdom, as Iranians increasingly seek improved living standards and economic opportunities beyond their homeland.

In a statement released on Tuesday, South Korea's Foreign Minister Park Jin confirmed that he spoke to Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, his Iranian counterpart, and that he is working to resolve this matter.

This comes following a recent diplomatic agreement between Tehran and Washington, in which Iran agreed to release five imprisoned American citizens in exchange for the release of $6billion frozen Iranian assets in South Korea.

According to reports from South Korean media, these funds, earned from oil sales before the US reimposed sanctions on Iran in 2018, have been transferred to the Swiss Central Bank, after which they will be converted into euros and then transferred to an account in Qatar that Iran can access.

American news source CNN, reported in August that the transfer of funds from South Korea to Qatar is likely to take 30 to 45 days.

The official news agency of the Islamic Republic has also confirmed the continuous efforts to transfer Iran's frozen assets from South Korean banks. According to IRNA, Amir-Abdollahian expressed optimism, stating that this development could “mark the commencement of a new phase in bilateral relations, and he welcomes any initiatives that contribute to enhancing ties between the two nations.”

Presently, the five American citizens are under house arrest in Iran. However, specific details regarding the Iranian prisoners to be exchanged with the five individuals as part of the recent agreement have not been publicly disclosed.

There is, however, disagreement within Israel’s security and defense establishment over a planned Iran-backed attack against the Jewish state. 

Yigal Carmon, the founder of the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) and one of Israel’s leading counter-terrorism experts, wrote an August 31st article titled “Signs Of Possible War In September-October,“ in which he argued a “confrontation could result from an uncontrolled deterioration on the ground or from the use of new and unusually deadly weapons by these movements [Hamas and Hezbollah].” 

Carmon said, “neither Hamas nor Hezbollah are eager to start a comprehensive confrontation with Israel” but noted that growing acts of jingoism and saber-rattling by both Iranian regime-backed jihadi movements (including Palestinian Islamic Jihad) on Israel’s borders.

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Hezbollah has set up tents in the Har Dov area within Israeli territory and was involved in “dismantling surveillance cameras along the border fence near Fatima Gate, and firing an anti-tank missile into Israel,” wrote Carmon.

Carmon, who is a fluent Arabic speaker, added “Hezbollah, which does not recognize the Blue Line as the international border between Lebanon and Israel, has recently made a new territorial claim, demanding that Israel give Lebanon sovereignty over the northern Rosh Hanikra railway tunnel, likewise in Israeli territory. At the same time, it also demands to curtail UNIFIL's freedom of action in South Lebanon.”

The US government and many European states have classified Iran’s strategic partner, Hezbollah, a foreign terrorist organization. Both the US and EU have designated Hamas and the PIJ terrorist entities.

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Carmon wrote, “There has also been an increase in efforts by Iran and Hezbollah to smuggle weapons into the West Bank, similar to the smuggling of weapons into Gaza. PIJ secretary-general Ziad Al-Nakhaleh said that, during his June 2023 meeting with Iranian Leader Ali Khamenei, the latter had ‘reiterated [the need to] develop the arming of the West Bank and the resistance there.’ Nakhaleh added: ‘We, as Palestinians and as resistance forces and movements, understand the importance of arming the West Bank, but this requires efforts by the Palestinians themselves, and also the assistance of our brothers in the Islamic Republic of Iran.’”

The spike in recent activity between Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and Tehran’s PIJ, Hamas and Lebanese allies in Beirut was also a subject of Carmon’s analysis.

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Abdollahian stressed that in the Beirut meeting the statements of Khamenei about the need "to help the West Bank" and about Iran's "ongoing [commitment to] assisting the resistance with all its might." Amir-Abdollahian added, "the establishment of the joint Hamas-PIJ [war] room reflected a smart move on the part of the resistance.”

Carmon noted that Amir-Abdollahian also met with Hezbollah Secretary-General Nasrallah, who then met with Al-'Arouri and Al-Nakhaleh to "make a joint assessment of the situation in the West Bank, the escalation of the resistance activity and the latest Israeli threats." 

Abdollahian and Iran’s allies underscored at the meeting "the steadfastness and steadiness of all the forces of the resistance axis in the struggle against the Zionist enemy," and cooperation between the "resistance movements" in Palestine and Lebanon.

When asked about Carmon’s analysis, Brigadier-General (res) Amir Avivi told Iran International, "While the specter of war unfortunately always looms along and beyond our borders, whether fueled by Iranian money and weapons or online incitement, at this time I do not share the assessment of an imminent war in September or October. 

The terrorist organization Hezbollah in Lebanon has indeed been conducting provocations along the border, and the other Iranian proxies have made belligerent statements.”

Avivi, the founder and CEO of the Israel Defense and Security Forum (IDSF), added, “And yes, religious holidays are historically periods of inter-community tensions, but at this time I believe that neither Hezbollah nor Hamas have an appetite for a full-blown confrontation with Israel, because they understand how devastating it would be for them.”

Carmon had also warned in his article that “During the Jewish holidays in September and October, Jews are likely to visit the Al-Aqsa compound, as happens every year. Hamas and Hezbollah spokesmen have stressed that this could lead to a regional war.”

Avivi noted that “Both Hamas and Hezbollah are suffering from internal unrest and lack of legitimacy in their respective fiefdoms, and it would be wise of them to refrain from jeopardizing their own future. Contrary to media reports and wishful thinking amongst Iranian proxies, the IDF is fully fit for combat, alert and ready to respond to any aggression."

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When presented with these arguments, Carmon told Iran International that “I said they [Hamas, Hezbollah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad] do not want it[war] but things can get out of control.”

Carmon raised the example of Nasrallah who said after the 2006 Second War in Lebanon about the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers that sparked the war: “We did not think, even one percent, that the capture would lead to a war at this time and of this magnitude. You ask me, if I had known on July 11 ... that the operation would lead to such a war, would I do it? I say no, absolutely not.”

A second factor that is part and parcel of Carmon’s “uncontrolled deterioration” framework during the lead up to the full-blown war in 2006 was the entry of an Israeli Merkava 2 tank into Lebanon that passed over a massive explosive device, destroying the tank and killing its four crew members. 

Carmon said “People do things without knowing repercussions. This is what happens when people like Avivi listen only to themselves and not to the other side.” Carmon also warned about the shipments of advanced new weapons, including Kornet anti-tank missiles, to Iran-backed terrorist terrorists, that can be used by against Israelis.