No IAEA Resolution Against Iran Despite Western Concerns On NPT Safeguards

Blinken, who arrived in Saudi Arabia late on Tuesday for a much-anticipated visit amid frayed ties due to deepening disagreements on everything from Iran policy to regional security issues, oil prices and human rights, met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Wednesday.

According to a US official, the two had an "open, candid" conversation for an hour and forty minutes, covering topics including Israel, the conflict in Yemen, unrest in Sudan as well as Iran.

"They discussed the potential for normalization of relations with Israel and agreed to continue dialogue on the issue," the official said.

At a speech in Washington hours before departing for Saudi Arabia, Blinken said the United States had a "real national security interest" in advocating for normalizing Saudi-Israeli ties but cautioned about the time frame."We have no illusions that this can be done quickly or easily," Blinken said.

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Although Riyadh gave its blessing to Persian Gulf neighbors United Arab Emirates and Bahrain establishing relations with Israel in 2020, it has not followed suit. In contrast, in April, Saudi Arabia restored ties with the Islamic Republic, a regional rival and Israel's archnemesis.

Two days after Blinken's visit, Riyadh will host a major Arab-Chinese investment conference. Blinken is also set to travel to China for talks in the coming weeks, in a visit intended by Washington to be a major step toward what President Joe Biden has called a "thaw" in Sino-American ties.

The visit came two days after US and UK navies acted when a merchant ship was being harassed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard’s Navy fast-attack boats in the Strait of Hormuz, in a sign of a more forceful policy in the Persian Gulf.

Condemning this behavior, a State Department spokesperson told Iran International on Tuesday that the move was a “clear attempt to threaten and interfere with commercial shipping” in the Middle East.

Emphasizing that the United States is committed to supporting regional maritime security coalitions within the Middle East region, the spokesperson said Washington does not seek conflict or escalation with Iran. "We are committed to responding to Iranian aggression together with our global Allies and our partners in the Middle East region to ensure the freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and other vital waterways.” the official added.

Iran has hundreds of fast attack boats that for years have not only harassed civilian vessels but, on many occasions, have come dangerously close to US and other warships in a show of force. Over the past two years, Iran has now harassed,attacked or interfered with the navigational rights of 16 internationally flagged merchant vessels in regional waters.

The recent incident in the Strait of Hormuz took place against the backdrop of reports about the formation of a new naval alliance in the region with Iran being a main force.The US says it “defies reason” for Iran to be part of a regional naval alliance while the Islamic Republic is the main reason for maritime insecurity in the Persian Gulf region.

Iranian media claimed in recent days that a regional naval coalition is in the offing though this was not confirmed by any mentioned parties. On Saturday, Iran's navy commander officially announced that his country and Saudi Arabia, as well as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain, plan to form a naval alliance, that would include Iraq, India and Pakistan.

In an opinion article in the Wall Street Journal Wednesday, Bolton sharply rebuked Biden for pursuing the revival of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, lax sanctions enforcement against Tehran, and his “apparent disdain for key Middle East allies.” He argued that Iran is overcoming a US policy of containment and Arab regional states, having lost confidence, are open to overtures by China and Russia.

Bolton also accused the administration of opposing an Israeli last resort attack on Iran’s nuclear installations to prevent the possible production of nuclear weapons, and in fact trying to prevent it.

He urged Biden to plan for a regime change in Iran, instead of making a deal that would release billions of dollars to the clerical regime. The former UN ambassador and national security advisor has long advocated that the only way to neutralize the threat posed by Iran is to change its anti-West regime.

At the same time, the Israeli Haaretz newspaper claimed that “major progress” has been achieved in contacts between Washington and Tehran for what appears to be an “interim deal”. In exchange for release of around $20 billion in frozen funds abroad, Iran would stop high-level uranium enrichment, the paper said.

The United States has been demanding that Iran stop its close military collaboration with Russia as a pre-condition for resuming the JCPOA talks. It is not clear that this would be part of an interim and limited agreement. Iran, which supplies weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine, can use any released funds to accelerate its weapons production.

The low-key daily's report would have not been noticed much if was not re-printed by Tehran's leading economic daily Donya-ye Eqtesad, which opined that Tehran is likely to accept new terms in the nuclear agreement to which the United States and Iran are the most important parties.

A change in the JCPOA has been suggested by the United States as its precondition for returning to the talks with Iran over its controversial nuclear program. The United States demands some regional defense and security issues to be included in the new agreement nicknamed by the media as JCPOA Plus.

After 18 months of talks to revive the JCPOA came to a halt in September, the Biden administration has been saying it is no longer focused on the issue and has numerated a few conditions Iran must meet.

According to Khorasan, these issues include Iran's cooperation with Russia in the war against Ukraine. However, the daily noted that there are still no signs to indicate that the United States is willing to return to talks as both US Democrats and Republicans see Iran as "a dangerous country that should come under control, and the United States should make sure to prevent Tehran's access to nuclear weapons.

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Nonetheless, Khorasan wrote that the Americans have said repeatedly an agreement with Iran is feasible. This comes while Iran has insisted it is willing to return to the 2015 agreement without any changes. The daily, however, added, presumably based on its access to insider information, that Iran is now prepared to accept some changes in the JCPOA if Washington offers guarantees about its commitment to the new agreement.

Khorasan added that regardless of Tehran's readiness to enter a new agreement, the two countries have big differences over non-nuclear issues the United States wishes to include in the document.

Meanwhile, Entekhab news website, which is close to Iran's moderates and the members of Iran's previous administration, quoted former diplomat Javid Ghorbanoghlou as saying that the government of President Ebrahim Raisi has missed the opportunity to revive the JCPOA because of its illogical slogans.

Ghorbanoghlou said that the hardliner members of the Raisi administration previously branded the JCPOA as a "disgrace" but now they wish to revive the same agreement. He added that currently, the United States is not interested in reviving the JCPOA and negotiating with Iran is not among its priorities.

He explained that recent contacts between the US and Iranian officials with the mediation of top Omani officials were merely meant to secure the release of US prisoners [meaning hostages] in Iran, an issue which has key significance for President Joe Biden ahead of the US elections.

Ghorbanoghlou said: Biden needs a victory in foreign policy following the fiasco in Afghanistan and the strategic surprises in Ukraine. Under the circumstances, releasing the prisoners has become a priority for Biden particularly after Belgium and other countries managed to get their imprisoned nationals out of Iran in recent weeks.

The former diplomat said although US efforts have not been successful so far, he is confident some of the US prisoners in Iran will be released soon as mediations are likely to become fruitful.

Zarif was guest in a five-hour discussion session in Persian on the social media audio app, Club House, and around 40,000 people listened in.

The former foreign minister has long been a favorite target of Iran’s hardliners as the supposed architect of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal and allegedly as a man pre-disposed to forge better ties with the United States and Europe. But in recent days these attacks intensified as Zarif began to tweet after a long silence.

Zarif without mentioning a name said, “A senator close to Trump came to see me in New York and said Trump had invited me to the White House. I relayed this message to Tehran and said if I fail [in resolving differences] I will accept punishment, but the message did not reach higher echelons and was rejected at lower levels.”

Although Zarif did not mention when this incident took place, media reports during his visits to New York show that it was most likely in the first half of 2019,or a year after Trump withdrew from the JCPOA.

However, his claim that his message was not relayed to top decision makers leaves question marks. The nuclear dispute with the United States, crippling sanctions the Trump administration imposed and the danger of a military confrontation at the time, made a meeting with Trump a crucial development for Tehran and such a message would have certainly been delivered to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the ultimate decision maker.

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Zarif’s claim that lower-level people prevented him from meeting Trump, might be a tactic to protect Khamenei, whom many Iranians blame for the costly confrontation with the United States.

In fact, Zarif himself admitted during the discussion that “all reports were being relayed to Khamenei, and he expressed his opinion whenever he wanted…”

Zarif also spoke at length about his diplomatic efforts, trying to enlist the help of French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin to make an opening with the Trump administration.

Zarif claimed that Macron told him in Paris that Trump was ready to meet with him, but “I did not have permission to meet with Trump.”

“In contrast to Trump, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was a person, who driven by his ideology spoiled everything related to the JCPOA. The triangle of Benjamin Netanyahu, Mike Pompeo and [former national security adviser] John Bolton” did everything to prevent a meeting with Trump.

This statement somewhat contradicted Zarif’s earlier assertion that he was not allowed by Tehran to meet with Trump.

“I asked Vladimir Putin to directly relay Iran’s plan for the JCPOA to Trump, without [Secretary of State] Pompeo’s intervention, but Pompeo realized this and prevented it.”

Zarif speaking about Iran’s inability to pressure the US said, “Iran can pressure Europe but due to American economic clout the Europeans acted in a weak manner regarding Iran, but they helped the Islamic Republic to obtain management posts in the United Nations.”

The former foreign minister was referring to European banks and companies generally abiding by US sanctions and adding to the economic pressure on the Islamic Republic. However, he did not mention any details about the posts he claimed Europeans helped secure at the UN.

Regarding the JCPOA negotiations from 2013-2015, Zarif said, “We wanted to break the security consensus formed against Iran and for this reason we negotiated. Removing [international] sanctions was not our only goal.”

Zarif’s appearance and statements in the Club House discussion are bound to reverberate in Iran and lead to strong attacks by hardliners. It is not clear why he chose to speak now and to what extent this is a part of an orchestrated effort by top decision makers, who are facing similar international isolation and security threats as a decade ago.

The United States delivered a statement on verification and monitoring of Iran’s activities before France, Germany and the UK (E3) also issued a joint statement on Tehran’s implementation of its nuclear commitments under the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, which is considered defunct.

Despite criticism by Israel accusing the IAEA of watering down its investigation into Iran's activities, both statements – by the US and the E3 – expressed gratitude to the Agency for its objective reporting on Iran’s nuclear program. “We would like to express our appreciation for the Agency’s professional and impartial work, and in particular, inspections of Iran’s facilities,” read the E3 statement.

Following unusually strong criticism by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that accused his agency of "capitulation to Iranian pressure," IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi told a news conference on Monday that "We never ever, never ever water down our standards.”

Last week the IAEA issued a report saying that Iran had partially cooperated in an investigation about three sites suspected of having been used as secret nuclear locations more than two decades ago.

Iran had tried to stymie the investigation since 2019. The IAEA had repeatedly denounced Iranian stonewalling, which spurred its 35-nation Board of Governors to pass a resolution last year demanding Iran to comply immediately. However, in a report to member states earlier in June, Grossi said Iran had provided explanation about depleted uranium traces at one site.

Although the E3 appreciated the IAEA’s “objective reporting,” they said: “We see no substantial change in Iran’s behavior. Over the reporting period, Iran has unabatedly continued escalating its nuclear program beyond civilian justification, and has displayed little will to implement the transparency commitments laid out in the Joint Statement agreed last March.”

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Noting that the Director General’s report shows Iran continues down its path of significant nuclear escalation, they mentioned Tehran's expansion of its stockpile of 5%, 20% and 60% enriched uranium.

Highlighting that Iran’s total enriched uranium stockpile is now more than 21 times the JCPOA limit, the E3 said the stockpile has increased by almost one third, to 114.1 kg in the form of UF6 (uranium hexafluoride or hex).

"This is almost three times the amount of nuclear material from which the possibility of manufacturing a nuclear explosive device cannot be excluded,” they warned.

They also expressed worries about Iran continuing to install additional advanced centrifuge cascades, which permanently improved its enrichment capabilities.

The three also referred to the detection last January of uranium particles enriched to 83.7% U-235, highlighting the seriousness of Iran’s continuing escalation. “This enrichment was grossly inconsistent with the level declared by Iran and constituted an unprecedented and extremely grave development, for which there is no credible civilian justification,” they underlined, adding that the significance of the detection of undeclared changes made to the cascade configuration at Fordow should be fully understood.

“Iran is still using a configuration which can enable the production of highly enriched material at levels considerably over 60%, showing Iran’s disregard for the gravity of this development,” the E3 stated.

They argued that the circumstances of such a discovery “through an unannounced inspection,” as well as the "accumulation of highly enriched uranium continue to ring alarm bells.”

They pointed to Iran’s decision to remove IAEA’s surveillance and monitoring equipment, saying the move had detrimental implications for the Agency’s ability to provide assurance of the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program.

They urged Iran to re-install all equipment in all the locations deemed necessary by the IAEA, and to provide all the footage from the cameras, including data recorded from February 2021 to June 2022, during which the nuclear watchdog had no access to data on centrifuge and component manufacturing.

Referring to the talks to revive the JCPOA, which collapsed due to Iran’s strenuous demands beyond the nuclear accord, they expressed deep regret that Iran did not accept a "fair and balanced deal" tabled by the EU almost a year ago, and instead chose to accelerate its program. “Iran bears full responsibility for this situation.”

The statement by the US was somewhat similar in concept but a little different in wording. Ambassador Laura S.H. Holgate also expressed concern about the enrichment of uranium to 60%, saying, “No other country in the world today utilizes uranium enriched to 60 percent for the purpose Iran claims.”

“Iran argues it is unfairly targeted by others. The reality remains that Iran continues to single itself out through its own actions. Iran should cease its nuclear provocations that pose grave proliferation risks,” read parts of the US statement.

According to the statement, Iran ended hopes of a mutual return to JCPOA implementation last September by demanding that safeguards obligations be implemented differently in Iran than in all other states.

“Such demands are simply impossible to accept” as “nowhere in the world would IAEA inspectors ignore possible undeclared nuclear material and activities, and the detection of nuclear material particles at multiple undeclared locations.”

Earlier in the day, Mohammad Marandi, the advisor to the Iranian negotiating team in the nuclear talks, reiterated that Iran will not sign a nuclear deal until the IAEA declares all outstanding cases resolved.