Iran oil pressure strategy is 'appealing but incomplete', former hostage says
US President Donald Trump’s approach of sustained pressure on Iran’s oil sector could inflict significant economic damage and potentially force concessions, but the assumption that it would quickly produce political change is “appealingly simple, yet dangerously incomplete,” according to an analysis by former Iran hostage Siamak Namazi.
"The Islamic Republic may indeed be under growing oil pressure. But the better frame is not a neat countdown. It is a regional logistics crisis colliding with a regime that has its own decision-making logic," Said Namazi, who was held in Iran from 2015 to 2023 in an analysis for Middle East Institute, published on Wednesday.
Namazi warned against “countdown” narratives suggesting a fixed timeline for Iranian capitulation, arguing that the impact of pressure would be uneven and dependent on infrastructure, field conditions and regime decision-making.








