Vance says US set on diplomacy to deprive Iran of nuclear weapon

The 12-day conflict ended without a written agreement, leaving Iran trapped between war and peace.

Instead of rebuilding through reform or reconciliation, the Islamic Republic has doubled down on surveillance, militarization and the distribution of privilege among loyalists.

What has emerged is a system of permanent crisis management: endurance without renewal.

The real decision-makers in Tehran show no appetite for dialogue with the West, and are unwilling to acknowledge recent political and military setbacks or contemplate change.

The priority has become the securitization of every sphere of life—with key decisions even more concentrated in security bodies, and politics almost wholly transferred to backrooms.

A web of military institutions, economic foundations and domestic platforms mediates between state resources and loyal factions. Executions and heavy sentences have surged; and digital rationing and surveillance have expanded.

More ominously, perhaps, official rhetoric is now focused on the threat of foreign enemies and the need for “constant readiness.” Public life is framed as part of a “media war,” while selective enforcement of hijab laws seeks to contain public anger.

Securitized economy

The boundary between political and security institutions has effectively vanished, with routine governance filtered through bodies such as the Supreme National Security Council.

This securitization coincides with an economic shift.

The government’s developmental role has withered, replaced by a mechanism that distributes limited resources among the faithful.

Economic access—to loans, licenses, or capital—now depends more than ever on political trust, reinforcing the role of intermediaries and fueling the rise of new oligarchs.

Together, these dynamics have produced a control-centered order where security agencies, economic foundations, and data platforms operate as a single network.

Decisions are shaped by military priorities and calibrated to maintain balance among loyal factions. Society is governed through access management, creating obedience through the fear of exclusion.

Longevity but no renewal

This post-war order relies on the state’s ability to maintain control and contain crises.

For now, it has prevented wider instability, but its tools are inherently exhaustible. Surveillance must constantly expand to preserve the same level of discipline; redistribution, when not backed by production, steadily drains what remains of the economy.

Decision-making has become reactive and short-term, aimed at averting immediate risks rather than shaping a long-term vision. Institutions function but no longer evolve; ad-hoc councils have replaced political processes

The result is a façade of coordination that in reality narrows the space for reform.

The endurance of this system stems less from institutional strength than from fear—of both domestic unrest and external pressure—and from the absence of political alternatives.

Dissenting forces lack organization; insiders lack capacity for change. The Islamic Republic thus persists through a passive form of survival, feeding on control and limited access to resources.

It may last for years, but this durability is merely a postponement of decisions, one whose eventual cost will fall on both the state and the Iranian people.

“If any aggression is committed against Iran, our response will be stronger than the 12-day war and we will turn the region into hell for the enemy,” Pakpour said, quoted by state broadcaster IRIB.

He added that Iran’s missile systems had performed with “power and precision” during the June war with Israel.

Pakpour made the remarks during a meeting in Tehran with Iraq’s National Security Adviser Qasim al-Araji.

According to Iranian state media, Al-Araji emphasized Iraq’s commitment to security cooperation with Iran and saying his country would not allow its territory to be used for hostile acts against Tehran.

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Iran’s top military officials have repeatedly warned they are monitoring regional adversaries and will respond forcefully if provoked.

Armed Forces Chief of Staff Abdolrahim Mousavi said on Monday that Tehran was not seeking war but would deliver a completely different response if attacked.

An Iranian lawmaker also warned on Tuesday that Iran would destroy enemy bases in the region if attacked.

“If the enemy is not attacking now, it is because it cannot,” Esmaeil Siavoshi said on Tuesday, according to state media. “It knows that if it attacks, we will destroy all its bases in the Persian Gulf.”

Pakpour said cooperation between Iran and Iraq was essential to prevent foreign interference and to ensure border security, adding that both countries had agreed to strengthen coordination through a joint field committee.

The commentary followed mass No Kings rallies on Saturday, when millions of Americans poured into the streets across hundreds of cities and suburbs to protest President Donald Trump’s policies.

Tasnim news agency, which is linked to the IRGC, characterized the protests as “a sign of severe polarization and institutional decay” in the United States.

The article said that the scale and spread of the demonstrations showed a society “on the verge of collapse,” suggesting that “civil conflict in America no longer seems unthinkable.”

On Monday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei also referenced the protests during a speech in Tehran.

“I have heard that people across all US states are chanting against him,” Khamenei said, referring to Trump. 

“If you are truly powerful, then go and calm them down, silence them, and send them back to their homes,” he said, in a swipe at what he described as Washington’s interference in other countries.

Such framing by Iranian state-linked media is consistent with Tehran’s broader narrative that seeks to highlight social unrest and political dysfunction in Western nations as a counterpoint to criticism of Iran’s domestic situation.

"President Trump has always been clear: the world’s number one state sponsor of terror can never be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon," the White House official told Iran International in reaction to Ali Khamenei's remarks.

In his comments on Monday morning, Iran's 86-year-old ruler said the United States is in no position "to dictate whether a country should or should not have a nuclear industry."

"What does it have to do with America whether Iran has nuclear facilities or not? These interventions are inappropriate, wrong and coercive," Khamenei said.

The Supreme Leader also rejected an offer of renewed talks from US President Donald Trump, saying, “He claims to be a man of deals, but if a deal is accompanied by coercion and its outcome is predetermined, it is not a deal but an imposition and bullying. The Iranian nation will not bow to such impositions.”

In response to Khamenei's defiant remarks, the White House official told Iran International, "As the President stated, 'even to Iran, whose regime has inflicted so much death on the Middle East, the hand of friendship and cooperation is always open.'"

“There's nothing that would do more good for this part of the world than for Iran's leaders to renounce terrorists...and finally recognize Israel's right to existence," the official said, quoting Trump's remarks in his recent speech at the Israeli parliament.

The site, located within the Parchin military complex southeast of Tehran, was hit in an Israeli airstrike on October 25, 2024, but was not struck during the June conflict.

The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) said rebuilding at the site—identified as Taleghan 2—began before the country’s 12-day war with Israel in June and continued afterward.

“The purpose of the new construction at this location cannot be discerned from the imagery; a multitude of other non-nuclear purposes are also possible,” the report said.

“It is deeply concerning that construction is occurring at a former AMAD Plan nuclear weapons development site, raising considerable questions as to the true purpose of the facilities there.”

AMAD was a secret scientific project allegedly aimed at developing nuclear weapons. It began in 1989 and ended in 2003, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Satellite imagery from May 20, 2025, showed a black temporary cover hastily installed over the destroyed building, the report said.

By June 12, groundwork and foundations had been laid, and by late August, a new arch-roofed structure about 45 by 17 meters was under construction over the temporary cover, with two smaller buildings nearby.

ISIS said imagery from September 27 showed a third arched structure and further progress on the others. It added that the smaller side buildings appeared to include “blast traps” if later bunkered with earth.

A support facility about 200 meters east of the main complex was also identified, with construction first noted in May and still ongoing.

The institute said that although there is no current evidence to support any nuclear-weapons-related purpose, efforts should be made to determine whether Iran is attempting to reconstitute either the high-explosive test chamber facilities originally part of the AMAD program or the more recently reported PETN plastic-explosive manufacturing capability.

It added that the structures’ arched roofs could later be covered with earth to enhance survivability in the event of future airstrikes and said it will continue to monitor developments at the site.

It added that the structures’ arched roofs could later be covered with earth to enhance survivability in the event of future airstrikes and said it will continue to monitor changes at the site.