Western leaders at G7 express caution as Trump tilts closer to Iran war

Danny Citrinowicz, who now heads the Iran and Shia axis program at the Institute of National Security Studies, said that at the beginning of the war, intelligence estimates showed Iran had around 2,000 missiles.

But as Israel pounds both launchers and production facilities, Iran is unable to regroup in time to retaliate to Israel’s ongoing attacks, he said.

“Iran is having a real problem to produce large salvos. They are calculating now in terms of what’s left, and they still have supplies but they know it’s going to be a lengthy war.”

After several consecutive nights of bombardment that have destroyed numerous homes and resulted in 24 deaths, Monday was a quiet night.

A missile strike hit a factory and bus station north of Tel Aviv in the only reported case of an impact.

According to Israeli military, since the start of the military campaign, fewer than 400 missiles and hundreds of unmanned aerial vehicles have been launched, causing approximately 35 impacts.

More than 647 people have been injured—with 10 seriously and 37 moderately—and nearly 19,000 damage claims have been filed, mostly for buildings. Additionally, 2,725 people have been evacuated from their homes.

Key commander killed

“With the air superiority of Israel and the assassination of the head of the missile program in the first surprise attacks, he will be hard to replace,” Citrinowicz said, referring to the death of Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the former commander of the IRGC Aerospace Forces.

“He headed last year’s April and October attacks on Israel and had so much knowledge and experience, and the trust of the top leadership, so while he was replaced, it would not be by someone like him with his caliber and expertise, and it’s taking a toll.”

Israel estimates 1,200 missiles left

Israeli estimates are that there are around 1,200 missiles left. “Iran can still have a war of attrition but they’ll have to calculate that. It will be very hard to launch 100-200 missiles at one time. They are under the superiority of Israel and can’t use a lot of launchers as Israel will hit them, and they are also launching in hiding,” added Citrinowicz.

“Israel has also hit the production hard. So what they started with, that’s what they have until the end of the war. Iran couldn’t have imagined such a thing would happen.”

“In the first blow, Iran’s senior leaders were at home. They didn’t see that coming and were very amateur. Iran is a one trick pony in terms of missiles. When Israel is really attacking facilities, it’s very hard for Iran to produce something dramatic and produce something to force Israel to stop the war.”

A Western intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Iran International that Iran's vulnerabilities are now on display.

"Iran’s capability is a paper tiger. This is why they created their network of proxies and why the regime so desperately want nuclear weapons," the official said.

"They are no match for Israel’s military firepower and defensive strength and Iran right now cannot risk dragging the US into war, so it will not attack US forces or facilities in the region," the source added.

President Trump on Tuesday demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender and warned US patience was wearing thin but said there were no plans to kill Iran’s leader - "yet" - as the Israel-Iran air war raged for a fifth day.

As an internet blackout gripped Iran, terrified resident fled the capital city after Trump called for a full evacuation and the Islamic Republic's armed forces' pace of missile salvos against Israel appeared to slacken.

A day after G7 heads of state including Trump mooted a resolution to end the hostilities, Trump appeared to take a dramatically harsher line on social media posts.

“We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding,” he wrote on Truth Social. “We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now... Our patience is wearing thin.”

Three minutes later, he blared, “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”

Explosions were reported all across Iran on Tuesday, Iran fired more missiles toward Israel. Air raid sirens sounded in Tel Aviv and southern Israel. Israel said it struck 12 missile sites and storage facilities in Tehran.

US involvement?

Trump met with his National Security Council for 90 minutes Tuesday afternoon, a White House official said, but no details were immediately forthcoming.

Meanwhile the United States is deploying more fighter jets and extending existing deployments, Reuters reported citing three officials. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described the posture as defensive, citing US assistance in intercepting missiles fired at Israel.

Israel said Tuesday it had killed Iran’s new wartime chief of staff Ali Shadmani, four days after his predecessor was killed in earlier strikes.

Amid mass evacuation orders and fears of wider conflict, Iranians at home and abroad are reporting major disruptions to banking and internet services, adding to the chaos as Israeli airstrikes and US warnings drive thousands to flee major cities.

Fordow next?

Iranian media said Israel had launched a “massive cyber war” against its digital infrastructure. Iran’s cybersecurity command has since banned officials from using mobile phones, Fars news reported — hours after Israel’s envoy to Washington hinted at a broader operation than the one that once paralyzed Hezbollah’s communications.

The UN nuclear watchdog said on Tuesday that an Israeli strike hit the underground enrichment halls at Natanz. But the Fordow facility—where Iran is enriching uranium close to weapons-grade—remains untouched.

Only the United States has the bunker-busting bombs capable of potentially breaching Fordow, where nuclear material is deeply buried and heavily fortified.

Israel’s national security adviser said the strikes will not end until Fordow is damaged.

Israel, not a party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, is widely believed to be the only Middle Eastern nation with nuclear weapons, though it maintains official ambiguity on the matter.

Messages and videos sent to Iran International reveal a nationwide breakdown in financial services. “You can’t even buy internet from Irancell,” one audience wrote.

“We have no way to pay,” another said, with bank systems crashing and cash machines out of service.

“The systems are obsolete and unprepared for modern cyberattacks,” AI and IT analyst Sahar Tahvili told Iran International.

“Cyberattacks in wartime are designed to cripple physical systems like transport, banks, and energy—and disrupt communication to undermine coordination.”

Sepah Bank has been entirely knocked offline, according to dozens of reports.

Hackers from the group Predatory Sparrow claimed responsibility. “We have destroyed all of Sepah Bank’s data in a cyber operation,” a statement by the group said.

ATMs out of service

The bank’s website and mobile services remain inaccessible. Users reported Sepah cards are all non-functional, with some ATMs across Tehran and other provinces out of cash.

Despite official denials, users across the country told Iran International that major banks, including Melli, Pasargad, and Eghtesad-e Novin, are also facing service failures.

“I’ve visited ten ATMs today,” said one man in Tehran. “None had any cash.”

Fars News Agency, tied to the Revolutionary Guards, confirmed a cyberattack disrupted Sepah’s remote services and warned of possible fuel station outages due to the bank’s backend support for some gas outlets.

Iran's central bank said banking infrastructure is stable and services were operating normally.

People in Tehran and other cities reported significant drop in internet speeds, some suggesting connection was all but impossible.

The impact stretches beyond Iran’s borders. Iranians stranded abroad due to flight cancellations say they are unable to access funds.

“I converted money to Tether, but crypto platforms block all transactions or require confirmation codes sent to Iranian phones—which don’t work here as roaming is down,” said a tourist stuck in Turkey.

“We came for a one-week trip, now we can’t pay for the hotel.”

Worse to come?

Retired military personnel who rely on Bank Sepah for pensions have also been affected.

“I served in the army for 30 years,” said one veteran. “Now I can’t even withdraw my pension while my children try to leave the city.”

With digital payments frozen, gold markets also ground to a halt.

"Gold shops are closed, and online platforms for selling gold are down,” a Tehran resident said.

Iran’s Cyber Security Command has issued a directive prohibiting government officials and their security teams from using any devices connected to public communication or telecommunications networks, Fars News Agency reported Tuesday.

The move comes amid rising concerns over mobile phone tracking being used for targeted assassinations within Iran. It also appears intended to prevent incidents similar to last year’s Israeli pager-based attack on Hezbollah operatives.

As infrastructure collapses under pressure from cyberattacks and conflict, many Iranians are left without cash, connectivity, or a clear way out.

Unlike the jammed roads out of Tehran, the city itself is quiet—until it isn’t. Then come the missiles, the drones, the air defenses. Silence shatters. We brace. Then wait. Then do it all over again.

People’s reactions are far from uniform.

Some still cling to the idea that this war isn’t really theirs—that it’s between Israel and the Islamic Republic and will not touch their homes or families. They believe, somehow, they’ll be spared.

They have chosen not to let reality shake their belief, not to allow the mounting rubble and growing number of deaths register.

Today I overheard someone at the grocery store say Khamenei had fled to the mountains, and that the war would end by Tuesday. I told him this is Tuesday. He nodded and said, “Exactly—so it ends today.”

Others saw what was coming and hit the roads by Day 3, hoping to reach safety outside the capital. Many didn’t get far.

The highways are still choked with cars; people are running out of fuel, out of options. Many are stuck—no way forward, no way back. Tehranis are heading north, toward the Caspian provinces that have neither the space nor the infrastructure to absorb them.

There’s fear of what’s waiting on the other end: food shortages, fuel scarcity, and overcrowded shelters. And yet, people keep fleeing.

For those who stay behind, the fear is different but no less consuming.

Israel’s defense minister has declared that Tel Aviv will take revenge not just on the Islamic Republic—but on Tehran itself. And so the city waits.

It’s hard to grasp how fast everything collapsed. Just last week, we believed we were in a “tense but manageable” phase. Now, even that looks like a golden age.

Few believe the Iranian leadership will prioritize the people over their own survival. You can feel that abandonment hanging in the air.

I asked the grocer if deliveries are still coming. “So far, just dairy,” he said. “We’re waiting on bread and soda.” Most shops are shuttered. Workplaces are closed. It feels like the city is holding its breath.

The government says the metro can be used as a shelter. But for those who remain, home still feels safer—if only psychologically.

Most people I know or encounter just want the war to end—with a deal, a collapse, or just a pause in the strikes. “One way or another,” as my partner puts it.

Wasn’t this about nuclear facilities, many ask. Why target city ministries? Why strike targets nestled inside residential neighborhoods?

We’re friends of the Iranian people, Israeli officials say. Well, the dead and wounded beg to differ. So far, the casualties are overwhelmingly civilian. Homes have been flattened. Lives erased.

Tragic stories abound.

A young man is missing. His pregnant wife lies in a hospital bed, her body broken. A young poet and her entire family are gone. Painful images that the regime’s media machine tries to use and misuse.

On social media, the battle over the truth is as fierce as anything in the skies.

People are still hoping the power and water systems will be spared. Just imagine: no electricity, no water—on top of everything else.

I saw a woman today carrying water half her weight. Many are stocking up, but for a few days’ need only. They can’t imagine the war lasting longer than that.

But what if it does? Worried whispers are starting. What if this becomes another Ukraine? Or another Gaza?

We drift between disbelief and dread, clinging to the same fragile wish: that this nightmare ends—one way or another—soon.

The group alleged it had “destroyed all data” at the bank.The claim comes amid reports of widespread banking disruptions in Iran.

Several Bank Sepah branches were closed on Tuesday, and customers told Iran International they were unable to access their accounts.

Bank Sepah has 1,800 branches in Iran and others in Britain, France, Germany and Italy. The United States imposed sanctions on Bank Sepah in 2019 after it withdrew from Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal.

Users also reported that cards issued by Kosar and Ansar -- both linked to Iran’s military --banks were not functioning. Ansar was also under US sanctions.

Iranian authorities have not commented on the outages or the cyberattack. However, IRGC’s Fars news said that the issue at Sepah Bank will be resolved within a few hours

Predatory Sparrow, which has previously claimed cyber operations against Iranian steel plants and fuel stations, said in a social media post that Bank Sepah had been used to finance military programs and circumvent international sanctions.

The group, which Iran has previously accused of having foreign backing, notably from Israel, said it had targeted the bank for its alleged role in supporting Iran’s missile and nuclear efforts.