Europe backs Israel, blames Iran for instability

According to Iran’s Ministry of Petroleum, Israeli missiles hit a gas sweetening unit at Phase 14 of the South Pars gas field and the vast Fajr Jam gas processing complex—both in southern Iran—as well as three major fuel storage depots in Tehran.

South Pars accounts for roughly 75% of Iran’s total natural gas output. The damaged facilities alone supply around 10% of the country’s gas consumption.

The full extent of the damage remains unclear, but Iranian media report serious harm to Fajr Jam’s gas intake and processing infrastructure. The plant, with a capacity of 50 million cubic meters per day, may have been forced offline.

The Petroleum Ministry also confirmed that 60% of Phase 14’s 20 million cubic meters-per-day output has been halted.

Israel had previously warned it would target Iran’s energy sector if Iranian forces struck Israeli civilians.

Tehran fuel depot also hit

Saturday’s strikes extended to Tehran, where Israeli forces reportedly hit the Shahran, Kan and Rey fuel depots—facilities that supply nearly all the capital’s gasoline and diesel.

Tehran’s total storage capacity is estimated at one billion liters, a quarter of Iran’s national fuel reserves.

A confidential Ministry of Petroleum document obtained by Iran International indicated that, as of late March, the country held 1.56 billion liters of gasoline and 1.28 billion liters of diesel in storage—barely enough for ten days of nationwide use.

Tehran alone consumes over 20 million liters of gasoline and 7.5 million liters of diesel per day.

With those storage hubs damaged, the capital now faces a looming fuel crisis, with more Israeli strikes likely on Iran’s energy infrastructure, as Iranian missiles hit targets in Israel.

So far, at least 14 Israeli civilians have been killed in Iranian attacks, while Iran’s health ministry has reported more than 200 killed.

Closing the Strait of Hormuz?

As strikes hit southern gas infrastructure, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that “spreading the war to the Persian Gulf could drag the entire world into conflict.” He gave no specifics, but lawmaker Esmail Kowsari said Tehran is considering closing the Strait of Hormuz.

Data provided to Iran International by commodity tracker Kpler shows Iran exported 2.2 million barrels of crude oil per day in the first 10 days of this month, and 1.8 million barrels daily on average last month—all through terminals in the Persian Gulf that rely on the strait.

Iran’s only alternative is the Jask terminal, inaugurated on the Sea of Oman in 2020. It was briefly used last October—amid fears of an Israeli strike—but averaged under 200,000 barrels per day and is currently inactive, according to TankerTrackers data.

Because Jask is over 1,000 kilometers from Iran’s main oil fields and has limited capacity, closing the strait would effectively halt Iran’s own oil exports.

The economic fallout wouldn’t stop there: according to Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization, 80% of Iran’s non-oil trade also passes through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

The partially developed Chabahar port—built with Indian assistance—handles less than 4% of the country’s total cargo throughput.

Here's a brief summary of major events and developments so far.

Israel escalates strikes, hits multiple cities

• Almost every neighborhood in Tehran was hit on Sunday, prompting a civilian exodus from the capital.
• Massive explosions were reported in Shahriar, Eslamshahr, and Vavan.
• Israeli warplanes struck missile depots and military infrastructure in western and northern Iran, triggering air defenses in Isfahan, Sanandaj, Ahvaz, Bandar Anzali, and other cities.
• Iranian intelligence and foreign ministry headquarters were hit, Mashhad saw large fires, and Tehran’s police command HQ was damaged.
• Tehran’s bazaar was shut down and major highways out of the capital experienced a surge in traffic as residents fled.

Iran strikes back with new missile barrage

• Iran launched another salvo of missiles early Sunday toward Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Jerusalem.
• Seven Israelis were killed and more than 200 injured; a synagogue in southern Israel was also hit.
• Tehran warned any further support for Israel could trigger retaliatory action against other regional states.

Casualties mount on both sides

• Iran's health ministry said 224 Iranians have been killed since Friday, and more than 1200 injured - 90% civilians, the report said.
• Iran's missile attacks have killed at least 14 Israelis and wounded more than 200.
• Fourteen Iranian nuclear scientists have been killed since Friday, some in car bombings.
• Iranian officials confirmed some damage to Natanz and Fordow nuclear sites, but most core facilities remain intact.

Israel unveils psychological pressure plan

• Israeli PM Netanyahu confirmed the killing of IRGC intelligence chief Mohammad Kazemi and his deputy.
• Israel approved a strategy aimed at causing a mass civilian exodus from Tehran by targeting military-linked infrastructure.
• The IDF issued warnings to evacuate parts of the capital.

Khamenei under fire from within and abroad

• People in some parts of Tehran were heard chanting “Death to Dictator” and "Death to IRGC" during air defense activity at night time.
• Iran’s exiled crown prince accused Khamenei of hiding “like a rat” while civilians suffer.
• French President Macron ruled out Russia as a mediator in the conflict.
• IRGC general Mohsen Rezaei said Iran may cross its red lines and use “undisclosed tactics.”

Talks with US in jeopardy as blame mounts

• Iran signaled it may cancel upcoming nuclear talks, citing US complicity in Israeli attacks.
• Foreign Minister Araghchi told the EU that negotiations are “unjustifiable” under the circumstances.
• Iran has told mediators Qatar and Oman that it is not open to negotiating a ceasefire while under Israeli attack, Reuters reported.
• Tehran said it may target Persian Gulf bases if they assist Israeli operations.

Washington's role

• Trump said Sunday that Iran and Israel “may have to fight to the end” but expressed hope for a peaceful deal.
• Trump vetoed an Israeli plan to assassinate Khamenei, Reuters said.
• The Pentagon is split: CENTCOM’s Gen. Kurilla wants more support for Israel, but policy chief Elbridge Colby resists diverting forces from Asia.
• Trump and Netanyahu both said regime change in Iran could be a result—but not the stated aim—of Israel’s actions.

Nuclear risk remains high, says IAEA

• IAEA chief Rafael Grossi told the UN that Israeli strikes caused serious damage at Natanz.
• No damage was observed at Fordow or the Khondab reactor, but concerns remain over potential radioactive release.
• EU and Pope Leo XIV issued fresh calls for nuclear restraint and return to diplomacy.

One video showed congestion on the Tehran–Saveh road, while another, captured similar scenes on the Tehran–Mashhad route.

The apparent exodus follows reports by Israel’s Channel 14 that the Israeli military has launched a strike plan designed to trigger mass civilian evacuations from Tehran.

According to the report, the operation, approved by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Katz, involves targeting sites linked to the Iranian government in an effort to apply pressure through psychological and logistical disruption.

The summit, hosted by Canada under its current G7 presidency, brings together the world’s seven major economies along with guest nations including Ukraine and South Africa.

But what was expected to be a forum for long-standing economic discussions and global trade tensions is now being overshadowed by urgent geopolitical turmoil.

US President Donald Trump told reporters before heading to the summit that he hoped for a peaceful resolution to the Iran-Israel clash but the two enemies may have to keep fighting.

"Well I hope there's going to be a deal. I think it's time for a deal and we'll see what happens but sometimes they have to fight it out but we're going to see what happens. I think there's a good chance there will be a deal," he said.

Trump declined to say if he requested Israel pause its attacks on Iran but said Washington would continue to aid Israel's defense against Iranian missiles.

Conversations that were originally expected to focus on peace efforts in Ukraine and Gaza have now pivoted sharply to the Iran-Israel conflict. The G7 agenda has been thrown into disarray as leaders scramble to respond to the escalating violence between Tehran and Tel Aviv.

“We do have longstanding concerns about the nuclear program Iran has," said British Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaking on a flight to Canada Sunday.

"We do recognize Israel’s right to self-defense, but I’m absolutely clear that this needs to de-escalate. There is a huge risk of escalation for the region and more widely,”

Trump earlier told ABC News he believes peace between Iran and Israel is likely, and that recent military strikes could pressure Tehran into agreeing to a nuclear deal in the near future.

"Something like this had to happen because I think even from both sides, but something like this had to happen. They want to talk, and they will be talking," Trump said.

Trump also expressed optimism about a potential Russian mediation between the two sides.

The president said the US will continue to support Israel but declined to confirm or deny if he asked Israel to pause strikes, he said speaking to reporters as he left for the G7 summit in Canada.

French President Emmanuel Macron said Sunday he hoped tensions between Iran and Israel would de-escalate “in the coming hours,” and urged a return to nuclear negotiations with Tehran.

Talks in limbo

Negotiations between the United States and Iran, previously scheduled for Sunday, were abruptly derailed after several members of Iran’s delegation were allegedly killed in an Israeli airstrike.

The G7 has the ability to help close the cycle of violence in the Middle East, said Iran analyst Behnam Ben Taleblu of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).

World leaders need to remind Tehran "the sharp choice it faces: trade away your nuclear program or watch it, and perhaps the rest of your military capabilities, be taken away from you," Taleblu told Iran International.

President Trump has said the US may consider direct involvement in Israeli military efforts, though he also expressed openness to Russian mediation as a possible diplomatic solution. Meanwhile, Washington has committed to deploying additional warships and military assets to the Middle East.

All members of Khamenei's family including his son Mojtaba are with him, the sources said.

According to the sources, during the previous operations against Israel, True Promise 1 and True Promise 2, the Supreme Leader’s family was also taken to the bunker.

At that time, Mojtaba was by his side, but two of his sons, Masoud and Mostafa, were not with him.

Iran’s first direct attack on Israel, Operation True Promise 1, took place on April 13, 2024, and involved over 300 missiles and drones targeting military installations. The strike was in retaliation for the killing of two Iranian generals in Damascus.

Operation True Promise 2 followed on October 1, 2024, with approximately 200 missiles aimed at Israeli military facilities in response to the assassination of Iran-aligned militant leaders, including former Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah.

Warning to Khamenei

On Sunday, Israel targeted the city of Mashhad, located 2,300 kilometers from the Jewish State, for the first time.

A diplomatic source in the Middle East told Iran International that the Israeli airstrike on Mashhad was a warning to Iran’s Supreme Leader that he is not safe anywhere in the country.

The diplomatic source added that Israel could have eliminated Khamenei on the first night of the operation, but the Israeli government chose to keep him alive to give him a final chance to decide on completely dismantling the Islamic Republic’s uranium enrichment program.

Trump had given Khamenei a two-month deadline to agree to dismantle Iran’s enrichment program. However, the Supreme Leader ignored both his and Israel’s warnings.

With the start of Israel’s airstrikes, that opportunity has been offered once again — this time for him to realistically assess Israel’s military capability and order the dismantling of the enrichment program, the sources said.