Iran’s Hezbollah still poses threat in spite of Israeli degradation - US intel

The tremors were part of a seismic cluster affecting Izeh, Lali, Haftkel, and Masjed Soleyman. Khuzestan is the main oil producing region of Iran.

The first earthquake, recorded at 5.6 magnitude, hit Haftkel at 7:32 a.m. local time at a depth of 10 kilometers, according to the University of Tehran’s Institute of Geophysics.

The German Research Centre for Geosciences reported the quake as a 5.7 magnitude.

A second quake, measured at 4.8 magnitude, followed 21 minutes later in Masjed Soleyman. Officials reported 12 earthquakes in the region, with aftershocks ranging from 3.2 to 3.5 magnitude.

“In total, 16 people have been injured. Except for one individual with a broken leg, all were treated on an outpatient basis,” Mohammad Hossein Sarmast, head of Ahvaz University of Medical Sciences, told local media.

Authorities highlighted water, electricity, and gas disruptions in Masjed Soleyman, where 33 homes suffered structural damage. Ali Abdollahi, Director General of Crisis Management for Khuzestan Governorate, reported natural gas outages in parts of Masjed Soleyman, alongside the closure of roads to two villages and gas network disruptions.

Aerial assessments of mountainous areas are underway to evaluate the damage, said Aref Sharhani, spokesperson for Khuzestan Emergency Center.

Masjed Soleyman Governor Peyman Molaei added that emergency teams and the Red Crescent have been deployed to assist affected areas.

The tremors were felt in cities including Ahvaz, Shushtar, and Hamidiyeh. While emergency responders reported no fatalities, the recurring seismic activity highlights the region's vulnerability.

In the early hours of November 10, a 4.1-magnitude earthquake struck Qaleh-ye Khvajeh County and parts of Khuzestan Province.

On October 4, another earthquake measuring 5.7 occurred in Chelgerd, on the border of Khuzestan and Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari provinces, damaging houses in 270 villages and 107 schools across the two provinces.

Officials from the Ministry of Oil and the Ministry of Energy announced that the Karun River dam chain in Khuzestan Province sustained no damage during the earthquakes on Thursday and there were no disruptions to operations in the oil regions.

Iran, which sits on major fault lines, experiences frequent earthquakes. Notable examples include the devastating 2003 Bam earthquake, which killed tens of thousands, and a 5.9-magnitude tremor in Khoy in 2022, leaving three dead and injuring over 800.

The United Nations estimates that Iran experiences an average of 10,000 earthquakes annually, making robust disaster management efforts crucial in this seismically active region.

“Of course, he will once again pursue his maximum pressure [campaign] against Iran,” Boulos told the French outlet Le Point, adding that Trump will be open to diplomacy alongside his firm approach.

“[He] is very clear that he absolutely does not want Iran to have a nuclear program,” he said, and would be “ready to run serious negotiations” with Tehran to achieve that goal.

Trump in his first term followed a range of measures to weaken Iran’s economy and curb its regional influence. He withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal with Tehran but did not initiate talks that would lead to another agreement.

During his 2024 election campaign, Trump struck a diplomatic tone, saying he did not intend to harm Iran if his red line was not crossed.

“My terms are very easy. Iran can't have nuclear weapons” he said, casting his vote. “I’d like them to be a very successful country,” without going into details of his plans for US-Iran relations.

The relationship between Washington and Tehran remains deeply strained, marked by proxy conflicts across the Middle East. Both sides have traded accusations of fueling instability, further complicating any diplomatic overture.

The ongoing hostility has not made Trump consider regime change in Iran however, according to his senior adviser Boulos.

“He did not talk about regime change but only about a nuclear agreement,” Boulos told Le Point referring to his conversations with the president-elect.

Boulos is a Lebanese-American businessman and the father-in-law of Trump's daughter Tiffany. He may prove to be an important player in shaping the incoming US administrations’ policy in that region.

His appointment adds another voice deeply skeptical of Iran to a foreign policy team deeply supportive of the Islamic Republic's arch-foe Israel.

"In case of a snapback reinstatement, one of the options we proposed was withdrawing from the NPT ... we could leave the treaty," deputy foreign minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi was quoted as saying by a parliamentary spokesman on Tuesday.

The remarks followed Takht-Ravanchi's discussions in Geneva with representatives from the UK, France, and Germany — the three European signatories to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

"We did not negotiate in Geneva because we had no text, and there was no text to negotiate on," Takht-Ravanchi said.

The Geneva talks were held in the wake of a controversial resolution passed by the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) Board of Governors, which calls for a report on Iran’s nuclear program and its lack of full cooperation with the IAEA by spring 2024.

This resolution could trigger the activation of the snapback mechanism, a provision within the JCPOA that would automatically restore international sanctions on Iran and potentially bring the country under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter.

The resolution, marking the second such action against Iran in two years, has prompted Iran to announce it will activate new and advanced centrifuges as a retaliatory measure.

"Unfortunately, our enemies have made Iran’s nuclear file very complicated and politicized," said Behrooz Kamalvandi, spokesperson for Iran's Atomic Energy Organization.

The breakdown in negotiations between Iran and the three European countries reflects broader diplomatic tensions. Efforts to revive the JCPOA, which collapsed after the United States withdrew under President Donald Trump in 2018, have stalled under Presidents Hassan Rouhani and Ebrahim Raisi.

"We have no intention of negotiating with Washington at this time, as there is no basis for such talks," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said recently, adding that Iran would reassess its approach once the new US administration’s policies become clearer.

However, some within President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration have shown interest in potential talks with the United States, particularly those aligned with the more moderate camp.

Among them, Mohammad Javad Zarif, Pezeshkian's strategic deputy, wrote in an article in Foreign Affairs magazine that Trump should pursue an agreement that benefits both sides.

“The West needs a more constructive approach—one that takes advantage of Iran’s hard-earned confidence, accepts Iran as an integral part of regional stability, and seeks collaborative solutions to shared challenges," he wrote. "Such shared challenges could even prompt Tehran and Washington to engage in conflict management rather than exponential escalation.”

Compared to the same date last year, when the dollar was valued at 504,000 rials, the current rate represents a staggering 43% rise.

The rial began trading at 716,000 to the dollar on Wednesday morning but surged to nearly 720,000 rials by noon. Tether, which is an equivalent of US dollar in crypto markets, was being traded at 726,000 rials on the same day.

One notable shock to the currency market came on November 6, when the dollar initially jumped past 700,000 rials following the news of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections. But the currency began it decline in September after serious blows by Israel against Iran's main regional proxy, Hezbollah and an Israeli air strike that destroyed most of Iran's air defenses.

However, authorities temporarily stabilized the rate below that threshold, most likely by selling foreign currencies to support the rial. The downward trend resumed later that month after the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Board of Governors issued a resolution critical of Tehran for its nuclear program which has breached international regulations, producing 60% enriched uranium as Iran edges ever closer to nuclear weapons capability.

The rial has faced significant volatility throughout the year, influenced by volatility in the region and direct conflict between Iran and Israel.

Iran’s reliance on oil and gas exports for foreign currency earnings has made the country particularly vulnerable to international sanctions. Under Joe Biden’s presidency, sanctions enforcement eased somewhat, offering Tehran a lifeline. But the return of Donald Trump to the White House, combined with Europe’s increasingly tough stance to crack down on Iran's nuclear program, foreshadows greater economic strain for the Islamic Republic.

Inflation in Iran already exceeds 40%, and the rial’s devaluation will exacerbate price hikes, further eroding the purchasing power of ordinary Iranians.

Tens of millions have faced declining living standards over the past five years, with wages lagging behind inflation and around one third of the population now living below the poverty line.

The average worker now earns the equivalent of less than $200 per month, while official data suggests that $500 is the bare minimum required to meet basic needs.

As the dollar’s rise continues, the impact on daily life for Iranians grows more severe. Essential goods and services, already out of reach for many, are likely to see further price increases, deepening economic hardship and fueling public discontent.

Reformist-leaning media in Iran criticized Elmira Sharifi-Moghaddam, a female anchor for state TV channel IRINN, for posing challenging questions to President Pezeshkian about the state of the economy.

Commentators seen as reformists argued that her questions were unfair, overlooking long-standing issues Pezeshkian faces, such as sanctions and a deeply inefficient economic system.

However, the questions raised during the interview were far less probing than those typically posed by European or American TV anchors. The interview's style appeared intentionally crafted to align with state TV's political leanings, closely tied to the ultraconservative Paydari party, whose members are known to influence the broadcaster's news and current affairs policies.

A former Tehran mayor, Gholamhossein Karbaschi, who owns and runs the centrist daily Ham Mihan, criticized the President's decision to participate in a live one-hour interview on state television. 

In an article for Iran, the state-owned newspaper, Karbaschi argued that Pezeshkian should have refused the format dictated by state television, instead asserting control over when and how he addressed the nation

"He should have changed the state TV's game and chosen when and for how long to speak to the public," Karbaschi suggested, adding that Pezeshkian could have delivered "just two sentences to convince the people."

Karbaschi argued that the interview was intended to undermine the president rather than facilitate meaningful communication with the public. 

"What we saw on TV was an honest president speaking transparently while facing unfairly challenging questions," he wrote.

The former mayor also accused the anchor of frequently interrupting Pezeshkian and raising provocative topics, such as a potential gasoline price hike, to derail his explanations of the administration’s performance.

Karbaschi further claimed that the president was given limited time to express his views on the controversial hijab law.

Domestic media appeared to express frustration upon realizing that the interview with Pezeshkian, his second since taking office on August 1, differed from those with previous presidents – when anchors typically refrained from challenging their guests and even assisted in portraying their performance in a favorable light. This was especially true in interviews with former President Ebrahim Raisi, much of the media noted.

Conservative columnist Abdoljavad Mousavi commented that "Pezeshkian spoke in the same manner about everything, making it difficult to assess his weaknesses and strengths," but argued that the president spoke with candor and honesty.

In contrast, Amir Hossein Jafari, a columnist for the pro-reform outlet Rouydad24, argued that Pezeshkian's remarks on various issues "hardly convinced the public."

Jafari highlighted key topics addressed in the interview, such as gasoline price hikes, internet censorship, and pressures stemming from the new compulsory hijab law.

"Apart from hijab, the president did not say much about other matters," he noted.

The word "disparity" dominated Pezeshkian's interview, reflecting gaps between the government’s financial resources and expenditures, production and consumption levels, and public expectations versus what the government can realistically deliver.

Throughout the conversation, Pezeshkian emphasized the lack of funding as a core issue. He acknowledged several economic challenges, many of which have escalated into crises, but maintained that there is little the government can do to address these disparities.

Pezeshkian offered no tangible solutions for short- or medium-term problems, instead suggesting measures that would only have been effective had they been implemented years ago.

He frequently remarked, especially regarding cultural issues, "Things should have been addressed when people were in primary school. It’s too late and too difficult to fix them now."

After the interview, Pezeshkian invited feedback on his X account. Many Iranians criticized his approach, calling him too timid.

"You should talk like a hammer!" one social media user urged.

Others expressed discontent over Pezeshkian’s perceived failure to uphold campaign promises, such as improving the economy, lifting internet censorship, and easing pressures on women over the hijab.

As one observer noted, "He has realized that things are not as easy as he thought when he made those promises during his campaign."