New corruption allegations portray Khamenei's son as best for succession

The Israeli Democracy Institute found that on the Left and in the Center, the largest proportion of respondents think that the response was appropriately strong (46% and 48%, respectively), while a large minority hold that the response was too weak (Left, 28%; Center, 32%).

On the Right, however, the largest share of respondents (51%) think the response was too weak, and 41% that it was appropriately strong.

Responses were analyzed by vote in the 2022 Knesset elections. The IDI said: “We found a surprising degree of agreement, for which we have no satisfactory explanation, between the Zionist right-wing parties—the Likud and Religious Zionism, the majority of whose voters think that Israel’s response to the Iranian missile attack was too weak (50.5% and 56%, respectively).”

Of the Arab parties, Ra’am and Balad, voters are even more of the opinion that Israel’s response was too weak (54% and 67%, respectively), the IDI found.

In Israel, its Arab population is made up of Druze, Muslims, Christians and Baha'i.

In terms of the national mood while Israel is fighting Iran’s militias from across the region, the IDI found things have improved.

“Presumably due to Israel’s military successes in Lebanon, and perhaps due to the repulsion of the Iranian missile strike with relatively minor damage, we found a substantial increase in optimism among the Israeli public this month about the future of national security, and a slight increase in optimism about the future of democratic rule,” the center said.

Israel and Iran’s war of attrition escalated this year following Iran’s inaugural attack on Israel in April. It followed the alleged Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus which killed at least two senior Quds Force generals and other IRGC figures.

A second Iranian attack followed on October 1 in retaliation for the targeted killings of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders. Israel retaliated on October 26, targeting key strategic sites in Iran.

An alleged Israeli attack on July 31 killed the political head of Iran-backed Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. Another air strike in September killed the head of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hassan Nasrallah, triggering almost 200 ballistic missiles to be fired at the Jewish state last month. Israel retaliated with an hours-long aerial attack on critical infrastructure and military sites.

The outages, scheduled from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., are part of a government strategy to conserve fuel and reduce reliance on mazut, a pollutant-heavy oil, as power plants struggle to meet demand.

Although initial plans aimed to limit blackouts to certain provinces, the inclusion of Tehran province highlights the growing urgency of the situation. The new plan does not affect the capital itself but will result in power outages in surrounding cities and towns.

Iran’s energy infrastructure is grappling with one of its most challenging winters. Facing a critical natural gas, President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration has prioritized avoiding the widespread burning of mazut, a high-sulfur fuel oil, as a substitute at major power plants in cities like Arak, Isfahan, and Karaj.

To mitigate mazut emissions, the government ordered planned blackouts, with power cuts announced across several provinces. By Sunday morning, Tehran’s electricity distribution company joined the list, publishing a blackout schedule before the website quickly became inaccessible due to traffic surges.

This measure has been presented as an environmental alternative to mazut, with officials citing health concerns associated with the fuel’s toxic emissions.

On November 7, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani supported the blackouts on social media, saying that “scheduled blackouts can temporarily replace toxic emissions” from mazut.

The fuel shortages have left power plants scrambling, with limited gas and diesel reserves forcing heavy reliance on mazut. As of mid-November, ministry of energy data indicates that gas supply to power plants dropped 30% compared to the previous year, with diesel reserves reduced to less than 1.26 billion liters. The drop in liquid fuel stocks comes after a 36% reduction from 2022, adding pressure to an already strained power grid.

Political justifications and public reactions

Amid this crisis, some government officials have placed partial blame on the public, saying that high domestic energy consumption is contributing to the shortages. Mohammad Jafar Ghaempanah, executive deputy for Pezeshkian, urged citizens to lower heating use and electricity consumption, calling high demand a significant factor in the blackouts. He pointed to energy subsidies as part of the issue, suggesting that low prices encourage excessive consumption. However, critics argue that the government’s infrastructure management rather than consumer behavior, is the root of the crisis.

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Chairman of the Board of the Electricity Syndicate Hassanali Taghizadeh has pushed back on claims that domestic use is disproportionately high, saying that Iranian households consume about half the electricity per capita compared to Europe.

“It’s wrong to say that public consumption is high. Our people consume far less electricity than the world, but we’re used to shifting blame onto them,” he said, calling for structural solutions rather than reliance on temporary blackouts.

Iran has the world's second largest natural gas reserves but years of negligence to invest in the gas fields and Western sanctions have reduced production.

Outlook on Iran’s energy policy

With around 80% of Iran’s electricity derived from thermal power plants reliant on gas, the administration faces mounting pressure to address what experts say is a systemic fuel shortages. Energy committee member Sepahvand said that without consistent gas supplies, disruptions may persist across both household and industrial sectors in the months ahead. Yet, long-term solutions, such as substantial investment in infrastructure or energy alternatives, remain elusive, leaving Iran reliant on interim measures like scheduled blackouts and continued mazut use.

Iran’s winter energy crisis has highlighted the country’s reliance on emergency measures, as officials grapple with a resource shortage exacerbated by decades of underinvestment. With blackouts set to continue, questions over energy policy and sustainability linger as winter sets in.

Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), had indicated earlier in the week that he might soon visit Iran to address its contentious nuclear program and expressed hope for cooperative engagement with US President-elect Donald Trump.

Iran began high degree of uranium enrichment in 2021, three years after Trump left the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal and imposed economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic. With more than 110 kilos of enriched uranium, Iran is now considered a nuclear threshold state.

Key issues between Iran, the IAEA, and Western powers include Tehran’s exclusion of uranium-enrichment experts from IAEA inspection teams and its longstanding failure to clarify the presence of uranium traces at undeclared locations.

The 2015 nuclear deal aimed to prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear capabilities, which Western nations viewed as a potential path toward nuclear weapons. With the high degree of uranium enrichment, the IAEA believes that Tehran would need just 2-3 weeks to amass enough uranium enriched to 90% purity for a nuclear bomb.

Iran is now enriching uranium up to 60% purity—close to the 90% level required for a nuclear weapon. The IAEA estimates that, if further enriched, Iran has accumulated enough uranium to produce about four nuclear bombs.

Iran maintains that it has no intentions of developing nuclear weapons and insists its uranium enrichment is solely for civilian energy purposes. However, uranium enriched to 60% purity has no known civilian use.

President-elect Donald Trump has repeatedly stated in recent months that he will not permit Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. His new administration is likely to impose additional sanctions and ramp up enforcement of existing ones. After six years of US sanctions that have severely impacted Iran's economy, Grossi’s visit could present an opportunity for Iranian concessions, including easing restrictions on the IAEA’s monitoring activities.

Iranian medical and government officials have repeatedly warned in the past few years about the inevitable deterioration of the healthcare system and its possible collapse if the same trends continue.

Mohammad Raiszadeh, the head of the Medical Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRIMC), the non-governmental licensing and regulatory body for the medical profession, said at a conference Thursday that forty percent of general practitioners have left the profession.

IRIMC is a non-governmental licensing and regulatory body and a recognized trade union for Iranian medical doctors with nearly 300,000 registered members.

Raiszadeh said young physicians no longer show interest in continuing their education to specialize and many are emigrating.

Only 100 have applied for the 385 available residency positions, he said, adding that there is no interest in some residency positions, such as anesthetics, for which no one applied. He warned that there is already a highly critical shortage of anesthesiologists.

A parliamentary report last year said the number of general practitioners in Iran has dropped to 13 per 10,000. This puts Iran behind most regional countries including Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Turkmenistan, and Oman but ahead of others including Iraq, Pakistan, Bahrain, and Afghanistan.

The head of the Medical Council also pointed out at the conference that teaching at medical universities has also lost its attraction and 850 faculty members left their academic positions in the Iranian calendar year that ended in March 2024.

Iranian media and medical officials have also repeatedly warned about the exodus of medical professionals and healthcare workers in the past few years and said the country may be forced to import doctors soon.

Government officials refuse to acknowledge the problem and have never offered concrete figures on the number of doctors, midwives, and nurses who have left the country for better jobs in neighboring countries including the United Arab Emirates and Oman, as well as elsewhere in the world.

Raiszadeh attributed the declining appeal of the medical profession to the slow pace of increases in doctors' fees. He noted that, compared to the salaries of civil servants and wages of workers, doctors' incomes have seen minimal growth in recent years. Meanwhile, because of a persistent high rate of inflation, surpassing 40%, nominal incomes have lost most of their purchasing power since 2019.

Many, however, believe medical professionals choose to leave not only in search of better income but also want to escape instability and the social and political restrictions that affect them like other Iranians.

The Iranian government highly regulates medical fees and annually announces chargeable rates for private general practitioners, specialists, and dentists.

In early April, for instance, general practitioners’ and specialists’ fees were set at 1.26 ($20) and 1.89 million rials ($30) for the next twelve months.

The purchasing power of the fees may drop even further due to the recent state of conflict with Israel and the possibility of tougher sanctions by the incoming US administration before an increase is allowed again in April.

Since August, nurses in dozens of cities across Iran have been staging ongoing protests against harsh working conditions and the government’s failure to pay wages consistently.

Ahmad Nejatian, head of the Nurses Council of the Islamic Republic—a non-governmental body overseeing nursing regulation and licensing—stated Thursday that Iran’s healthcare system faces a severe crisis with a shortage of 100,000 nurses. He urged the government to raise nurses' wages to retain talent and reduce emigration.

Nejatian reported that 1,900 nurses have recently applied to the Council for certificates required by other countries to validate their professional credentials.

“We don’t have exact numbers on nurse emigration, but we know that it has increased significantly,” he added.

Immediately after Donald Trump’s election, Iranian officials and media sought to downplay its significance, while markets in Iran reacted negatively, anticipating a tougher US policy than under the Biden administration. However, this public stance now appears to be shifting.

The most notable call for efforts to lift sanctions came from former parliament speaker Ali Larijani in an interview with Khabar Online on Saturday. The seasoned Islamic Republic politician voiced serious concern over next year’s budget deficit, projected to exceed 30 percent and amounting to over $30 billion.

Larijani expressed dismay at the large budget deficit and emphasized that the only solution is a significant improvement in the economy. Although Iran always had deficits, but this year’s picture is worse than ever, he stressed. The only solution is to lift sanctions, he emphasized.

"These sanctions have become a barrier to our development. I’m not saying that removing them will solve everything, but it’s like a large stone has fallen into a stream. You need to remove that stone to allow the economy to flow smoothly. So, I believe we must make an effort to resolve this issue,” the former Speaker said.

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So far, after six years of economic crisis, a year of conflict between Israel and Iran’s regional proxies, and Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has remained silent, giving no indication of whether he is open to major concessions. During Trump’s first term, he demanded that Iran halt its nuclear program, scale back missile development, and cease support for militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.

The new president has yet to clarify his policy toward the Islamic Republic, but most observers agree he is likely to adopt a tough stance once again. Meanwhile, ordinary Iranians, struggling with over 40% annual inflation, are increasingly eager for the government to show flexibility.

University professor Mehdi Motaharnia told a conservative website on Saturday that Donald Trump has returned to power stronger than ever, now supported by a Republican-majority Congress. While Trump emphasized his aversion to further conflicts during his campaign, Motaharnia noted that he is expected to take a tough stance on Iran.

"Regarding Iran, we will see an increase in tensions and sanctions. Trump will apply maximum pressure on Iran in an effort to push Tehran towards a new agreement. Trump believes in direct negotiations with Iran; he is even willing to personally engage with certain individuals in Iran,” Motaharnia argued. He added that while Trump is generally open to negotiations, the conditions he will set for Iran are likely to be stringent.

Mahmoud Jamsaz, a prominent academic and economist, emphasized that US political developments affect not only Iran but the entire world. Jamsaz, who has frequently spoken openly about the government’s misguided policies, argued that Iran is currently facing too many economic challenges to afford indifference to Trump’s election.

"In May 2018, when Mr. Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, the country’s inflation sharply increased and has continued to rise ever since. Such conditions have had severely damaging effects on Iran’s economy,” Jamsaz said.

Within Iran’s restricted space of public discourse, the economist tried his best to sound a warning. "Trump has said he doesn’t have much interest in dealing with Iran, stating only that he will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. This is where the issue depends on Iran’s policies. If Iran shows some flexibility and, for example, the JCPOA is somehow revived, we would see a positive economic impact. But if we move in a direction other than flexibility, conditions will naturally become more difficult."