Iran warns of global impact if Mideast conflict intensifies

Jeff Sonnenfeld, appearing on the Eye for Iran podcast, said a deputy on National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s team may have leaked information about the Biden administrations discussion with Saudi Arabia and Israel on expanding the Abraham Accords, just prior to Hamas launching the Oct 7 attacks.

A spokesperson from the National Security Advisor told Iran International that this claim is false.

Sonnenfeld did not expose the individual's identity and said that person, who he described as a man, did not have malicious intent, but allegedly bragged too much and that gave Hamas wind of what was to come.

“Jake Sullivan, who I think is fantastic, he had a deputy who apparently can't stop talking and stuck a finger in the eye of Hamas on October 5th or 6th, just days before the next critical conclusory stage of the Abraham Accords was to be signed with Saudi Arabia and even Mahmoud Abbas from the Palestinian Authority signing on,” said Sonnenfeld.

“It would have been amazing but by tempting fate like that Hamas realized this was their last moment to strike,” he added.

There have been several analysts who speculated that the Iran-backed proxy launched Oct 7 to counter a formal alliance between Israel and Iran’s Sunni adversary Saudi Arabia, thereby shifting the balance of power in the Middle East.

While Saudi normalization with Israel was within reach, the Oct 7 attack and new revelations about the alleged leak killed any chance of a peace deal between the two nations.

The historic Arab-Israeli normalization agreements of 2020 have been touted as a triumph of US diplomacy. Under the Trump administration, the US brokered four deals in five months that built diplomatic, social, economic and peaceful relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco. Direct flights between Israel and some of the Arab countries started and embassies opened for the first time.

It was a massive rupture from the rhetoric in which Arab nations would not negotiate with Israel until Palestinians received an independent state of their own

Just days before Saudi Arabia was set to sign on, Hamas launched its attack, sparking a war with Israel that derailed the process amid intense violence in Gaza.

The Biden administration inherited the Abraham Accords—one of the few policies the outgoing president chose to carry forward from his predecessor, Donald Trump.

It appears a certain member of the Biden administration had a knack for revealing too much at a critical time, according to Sonnenfeld who attended the 2019 Peace through Prosperity conference in Bahrain, which outlined the Abraham Accords.

"There is one deputy in there that you name the crisis from the Middle East to Central Europe, this guy can't stop talking."

Sonnenfeld had a lot of praise for President Joe Biden and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan but said the individual who allegedly leaked the information did a lot of harm.

"He's beyond naive. It is his negligence and malpractice in office, but he's rather full of himself and quite a dandy on top of that," Sonnenfeld described the man he didn't name for legality purposes.

Sonnenfeld said the leaks that would come out what he called the ill-timed bragging was detrimental to progress.

When asked on the Eye for Iran podcast whether this individual may have inadvertently influenced the timing of the Iran-backed Hamas attack on Israel, Sonnenfeld responded, “It didn’t help.”

"That was an ill-timed irritant. As President Biden had acknowledged months later, they were just days away from that formal signing that as this reckless individual, I don't think he had any personal gain out of it. It was just pure arrogance and self-importance."

You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran featuring Jeff Sonnenfeld on YouTube, or listen on Spotify, Castbox, Apple or Amazon.

Then there are those, a significant number it seems, who are indifferent. They have lost hope of any change for the better.

“It makes no difference to me who’s in the White House, cause I see the problem here at home,” says Mahmoud, a well-educated pensioner who has “seen it all”.

“We are where we are, barely living, because of our rulers’ incompetence and bigotry. They don’t care if sanctions have broken our backs. They can end this if they want to. They could back down and reach an agreement with either Harris or Trump,” Mahmoud added.

US presidential elections are normally followed by many in Iran. But this time there was not so much appetite, perhaps because people are struggling more than ever, but also because many have come to believe that things go only downhill in Iran, whoever sits in the Oval Office.

The markets were less indifferent though. Iran’s currency dropped further as soon as Trump was declared winner, breaking its record low of the week prior.

“Trump will definitely impose more sanctions on Iran and back Israel in any attack against us,” says Hossein, 45, working in advertisement. “All we had has been wiped off by skyrocketing inflation, partly due to sanctions and partly due to corruption and incompetence at home. How much more we can take, how far lower we can go, I’m not sure.”

Recent official data suggests 30 percent of Iran’s population live below the poverty line. This is double the figure from two decades ago. The impact of sanctions is impossible to deny. But on the streets and at family gatherings, most appear to blame the Islamic Republic for it, not the United States.

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Expletives are common when people talk about Iran’s foreign policy and support for armed groups across the region. The government announced last month that the military budget would be almost tripled in the upcoming Iranian calendar year. ‘Why spend so much elsewhere when so many are in need at home,’ is something you hear every day.

Hessam, a 29-year old photographer, is keen to see the back of this “wasteful policy” that he believes is at the heart of Iranians’ misery. “I hope Trump’s arrival ends the Islamic Republic’s game,” he says, “I don’t expect the regime to fall, and I fear war, but I think a Harris victory would have encouraged the regime to continue with its policies. Now they have to think twice.”

Some media reports suggest that president Masoud Pezeshkian was hoping for another Democratic administration. Hardliners have warned him against any talks with Trump, who has “blood on his hand”, that of IRGC top general, Qasem Soleimani.

The reactions to Trump’s win are not just political. Many of those who aspire to move to the US are disheartened. The memory of the 2017 travel ban is still fresh.

Samin, a computer science graduate, is one of many thousands who are at various stages of a long process to make a home in Europe or North America. “I was hoping to move to the US. I have submitted several applications and am waiting,” Samin says. “But with Trump’s return and the immigration policy that we all know well, I’m not so sure. I don’t know what future awaits me.”

It’s not clear if a Trump administration would make Samin’s move any harder. But that’s the general perception. So is the idea—rightly or wrongly—that the president-elect can play a significant role in determining the fate of the Islamic Republic one way or another.

Aynaz Karimi was under intense pressure for "failing to observe decorum" for wearing nail polish and dyeing her hair, according to the Coordination Council of Iranian Educators' Trade Associations, leading to her eventual expulsion.

"Kazeroon’s Education Department and its officials, instead of defending students' rights, have remained silent, choosing to protect their own positions and status," the teacher's union said in a statement, referring to the town in Fars province.

"Ideological and repressive actions in schools not only rob students of their futures but also lead to the loss of their lives and motivation," the council wrote on their Telegram channel. "We demand an end to ideological policies, the elimination of disparaging attitudes toward students, and respect for their individual freedoms and human rights."

Just last week, a 16-year-old Afghan-Iranian girl in Tehran took her own life following a confrontation with a school principal for wearing jeans instead of the required uniform on a field trip, according to her father.

In an interview with Tehran-based Rokna News, the father in that case said he was told by the school that his daughter, Arezou, departed without permission. Later, he learned she had jumped from the sixth floor of a friend’s residential building.

The father held the school responsible for the tragedy, adding that the family has filed a formal complaint against the principal. He mentioned that this incident was not isolated, as the school had previously questioned her adherence to the hijab.

Some social media users have drawn comparisons between the experiences of Afghan and Iranian girls, noting that Arezou escaped the Taliban’s compulsory hijab and ban on girls’ education only to face similar restrictions in Iran.

The strict enforcement of hijab rules in Iran pressures Iranian women, and sparked months-long protests in 2022 after the death of a 22-year-old woman in police custody for allegedly wearing her hijab improperly.

In a recent incident, an Iranian university student’s protest in which she stripped down to her underwear drew international attention from figures like billionaire Richard Branson and Nobel Peace laureates, bringing renewed focus to the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement which fueled the 2022 protests.

"I have a message for President Trump now, because he said that he wants to negotiate with the regime. This is the regime. Assassinating and killing is in the DNA of the Islamic Republic," Masih Alinejad told Fox News in an interview.

"I want to fight against this regime, and I want the President of the United States to support my cause and the women of Iran who are facing the same killers every single day," she added.

Earlier on Friday the US Justice Department unsealed murder-for-hire charges against an Afghan national it said was tasked by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps with assassinating both Alinejad and Trump.

Alinejad is one of the most visible critics of Iran's theocratic rulers and lives in an undisclosed location in Brooklyn since US law enforcement first uncovered the alleged Iranian plot on her life.

A champion of the Woman, Life, Freedom movement for female empowerment against Islamic headscarf enforcement in Iran, Alinejad has called for the downfall of the ruling system.

In his ultimately triumphant presidential campaign, Trump took a different tack by appearing to rule out seeking regime change despite taking a hard line on Iran as president, killing top military commander Qassem Soleimani and tightening sanctions,

Trump has said he wants to make a deal with Iran and wishes it success but that the United States would not tolerate Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons.

Farhad Shakeri, 51, believed to be in Iran, and two New York-based accomplices in US custody were charged with the plot against an unnamed Iranian-American journalist, likely the outspoken dissident Masih Alinejad.

Shakeri, a statement on the criminal complaint said citing an FBI interview with the suspect, was also tasked by Iran's foremost military organization with killing Trump.

"Shakeri has informed law enforcement that he was tasked (by the IRGC) on Oct. 7, 2024, with providing a plan to kill President-elect Donald J. Trump."

The text of the indictment identified Trump as "Victim-4" and alleged that an unidentified IRGC official told Shakeri that money was no object in its plan to kill him.

"In approximately mid-to-late September 2024, IRGC Official-I asked Shakeri to put aside his other efforts on behalf of the IRGC and focus on surveilling, and, ultimately, assassinating, former President of the United States, Donald J. Trump ('Victim-4' herein)."

"Shakeri indicated to IRGC Official-I that this would cost a "huge" amount of money. In response, IRGC Official-I said that 'we have already spent a lot of money ... [s]o the money's not an issue'."

Shakeri now lives in Iran, according to the indictment. He had immigrated to the United States as a child but following a 14-year stint in prison for robbery was deported in around 2008.

Tapping criminal contacts made in prison, Shakeri was able to supply the IRGC with operatives to surveil the Guards' assassination targets, it added.

Attorney General Merrick Garland underscored the danger Iran poses to prominent Americans and pledged to use his department's full resources to protect Iran's targets.

“There are few actors in the world that pose as grave a threat to the national security of the United States as does Iran,” Garland said in the statement.

“The charges announced today expose Iran's continued brazen attempts to target U.S. citizens, including President-elect Donald Trump, other government leaders and dissidents who criticize the regime in Tehran," he added.

During Trump's tenure, the US assassinated Qassem Soleimani, a top IRGC commander who had led the Islamic Republic's foreign military operations. That turned Trump and his senior officials into targets of Iranian assassination plots, US law enforcement has said.