Iran was aware of Hamas's plan to launch October 7 attack - NYT

Hossein Selahvarzi, in an interview with ILNA on Saturday, pointed out that “over the past two years, significant attention has been devoted to the notion of free trade with the Eurasian Union, which has frequently been used for political and promotional purposes. This has gone hand-in-hand with efforts to advocate for Iran’s membership in other international groups like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization”.

He emphasized that “none of these efforts have translated into concrete economic gains for Iran.” He attributed this lack of progress to the continuation of international sanctions and Iran’s failure to comply with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) requirements, which has kept the country on its blacklist.

As a result, Selahvarzi argued that agreements made with other nations are, in practice, unrealizable.

On Friday, Mohammad Ali Dehghan Dehnavi, Deputy Minister of Industry, Mines, and Trade, announced that Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) are in the final stages of negotiating a free trade agreement. He expressed optimism that the agreement will “facilitate and increase the volume of trade exchanges,” potentially giving Iran a much-needed economic momentum.

Selahvarzi remains skeptical, noting that the current administration rose to power on a platform of slogans, including promises to lift sanctions and remove Iran from the FATF blacklist. Despite the government’s promotion of bilateral and multilateral agreements, Selahvarzi argues that as long as sanctions persist and Iran remains non-compliant with international financial regulations, these agreements will be largely ineffective.

The FATF, an international financial watchdog, has long pressed Iran to meet global standards for combating money laundering and terrorism financing. However, Iran's refusal to comply has kept it isolated from the global financial system. Hardline factions within Iran's power structure see FATF compliance as a threat, fearing it would hinder their ability to finance proxy groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, both central to Iran’s regional strategy.

Meanwhile, the chances of lifting sanctions through negotiations with the West seem increasingly unlikely, especially as regional tensions rise. Hardliners in the government continue to advocate for a more aggressive approach, particularly regarding Iran’s nuclear program—a key factor behind the sanctions. On Saturday, MP Mohammad Manan Raeisi claimed Iran could develop nuclear weapons within six months, heightening tensions further. Just days earlier, 39 Iranian lawmakers called on the Supreme National Security Council to reassess the country’s defense doctrine, including the potential pursuit of nuclear weapons, as hostilities with Israel intensify.

Selahvarzi's longstanding criticism of the government's economic policies has consistently placed him at odds with the political establishment. His election as president of Iran's Chamber of Commerce in June last year was immediately met with pushback by hardliners and state media. Selahvarzi, known for his outspoken presence on social media, has often criticized government officials and their policies. The recent verdict against him appears to be largely based on his tweets, especially those supporting protesters and condemning authorities during the 2022 demonstrations.

One of his notable tweets reads, "Sometimes, the pain is so overwhelming that your entire being cries, except for your eyes," accompanied by hashtags referencing the teenage girls killed during the protests.

In 2022, EcoIran reported that the Tehran deputy prosecutor general issued an indictment against Selahvarzi, accusing him of insulting the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ruhollah Khomeini, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. After nearly a year of conflict following his election, Selahvarzi was ultimately dismissed from his position as head of the Chamber of Commerce. In September 2023, Mizan News Agency, affiliated with Iran's judiciary, reported that the Tehran Court of Appeals sentenced him to six months in prison and imposed a fine for “spreading lies.”

Iranian authorities have announced that Nilforoushan's body was found on Friday two weeks after his death. Earlier on Saturday, the IRGC commander of Isfahan announced that once his body is repatriated to Iran, it will be buried in Isfahan after funerals in Mashhad and Tehran, with Khamenei leading the funeral prayer.

However, hours later, Isfahan's IRGC information office denied this statement, saying that "The publication of any news in this regard is invalid."

Since the air strike that killed Nasrallah and other Israeli attacks, Iranian officials have issues many contradictory reports, including over the disappearance of IRGC's Quds commander Esmail Qa'ani. While some reports said he was killed in an Israeli attack in Beirut, other statements from Iran have underlined that he is alive. However, some foreign media have said that Qa'ani has been arrested on suspicions of espionage for Israel and has been subjected to interrogations.

Born in Isfahan in 1966, Nilforoushan began his military activities in the 1980s joining the Basij and later the IRGC, holding various positions including Deputy Commander of the IRGC Ground Forces for Operations.

Iranian media outlet Student News Network (SNN) described Nilforoushan as a “key figure” with extensive battlefield experience who played a crucial role in supporting the “Resistance Axis, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Palestinian resistance groups,” helping to strengthen their capabilities against Israel.

Following the assassination of IRGC General Mohammad Reza Zahedi in an Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus in April, Nilforoushan “assumed command of the Lebanon front,” according to the Tehran-based Fararu website.

Nilforoushan was killed in an Israeli attack on a meeting between Nasrallah, top Hezbollah members, and IRGC commanders. In a statement about Nasrallah's death, Khamenei said that the meeting was focused on designing a military plan to counter the recent wave of Israeli attacks in Lebanon.

Previous version of this news item was updated to reflect the denial by IRGC.

They argue that both the Islamic Republic’s policies and Israel's actions in the current Middle East conflict should be rejected. In contrast, constitutional monarchists, who have launched the "Stand by Israel" campaign on social media, believe that Iranians should support Israel in this ongoing conflict. There are also independent voices supporting Israel.

In terms of public attitudes toward Tehran’s foreign policy, approximately 65% of the population opposes the slogan "Death to Israel," while 23% support it. Meanwhile, 64% agree with the slogan "Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, I sacrifice my life for Iran," with 24% opposing it. Additionally, 73% back a common slogan about the Iranian government being the people’s enemy, and not the United States. These figures reflect significant public disagreement with some of the Islamic Republic's key foreign policy tenets.

At least 50% of ordinary Iranians are reportedly dissatisfied with the country's current state, as evidenced by consistently low voter turnout in recent elections. Many have also refrained from demonstrating public support for the government's missile strikes on Israel. Social media images have shown citizens celebrating the deaths of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah by distributing sweets. Due to the lack of independent polling, it’s unclear what drives public opinion on these issues, but well-known figures inside and outside Iran have voiced support for both sides of the debate.

Arguments of opponents of an Israeli attack

The common denominator of the arguments of the opponents of supporting Israel in a possible war can be seen in the statement they issued:

1. "The one-year bombing of the people of Gaza ordered by the Netanyahu administration... is a clear manifestation of genocide."

2. "The claim of Israeli fundamentalists to impose a "new order" in the Middle East is only an invitation to more conflict, killing and destruction in the region."

3. "Israeli bombs will not bring peace, democracy, and freedom to Gaza, Lebanon and Iran."

4. "Both sides of this inhumane war of attrition are fueling the increase in tension and the spread of war in the region, and the result is nothing but death and destruction, displacement, intensification of repression and suffocation, the growth of extremism and insecurity."

They conclude from the above four arguments that it is necessary to "prevent the spread of the war to new fronts and stop the war by increasing the pressure on all sides of the conflict and trying to establish an immediate ceasefire in the region."

Argument of Israel supporters

The common denominator of the points that Israel's supporters make in its current war with the Islamic Republic are as follows:

1. There is a long-standing historical connection between Iranians and Jews dating back to the era of Cyrus the Great, and Iranians have no significant motives or grievances for hostility toward Jews or their government. The current conflict is driven by the Islamic Republic, not the Iranian people. Today, the enmity toward Israel largely reflects the ruling elite's agenda, not the sentiments of the broader population.

2. The tension between Iran and Israel stems largely from Islamist ideology, which seeks to eliminate Israel for reasons unrelated to Iran's national security or interests. This ideological stance, rather than any direct threat to Iran, drives the conflict and animosity toward Israel.

3. The Islamic Republic and its supporters are not only enemies of Israel, but enemies of Iran and Iranians. For this reason, Israel is an ally of the Iranians in people’s fight against the Islamic government and they should stand by it.

4. After the fall of the current government, Israel could become Iran's strongest democratic ally in the region, as there is no geopolitical rivalry or conflict of interest between the two nations. In contrast, Iran faces significant issues with its Arab, Turkish, and Afghan neighbors. A free Iran and Israel could collaborate on key issues like water management, information technology, military strategy, and agriculture, fostering a mutually beneficial relationship.

5. Tehran's nuclear program not only targets Israel but also drains Iran's national resources, costing tens of billions of dollars and causing hundreds of billions in losses from sanctions and missed revenues. Many Iranians opposed to the government see no benefit in continuing this costly program, just as Israel does. For them, the nuclear agenda serves neither Iran's interests nor its future, but instead deepens the nation's economic struggles and global isolation.

6. Instead of Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, Iran's resources should be spent on Iranians, 90% of whom live near or at poverty levels. It is in the interest of the Iranian people that Israel weakens or removes the Islamic government from the region.

7. Iranians do not expect Israel to change their government for them. The focus of cooperation between Iranians and Israelis is on confronting common enemies and addressing shared security challenges, rather than promoting democratic reforms or government transitions.

During a live Iranian state TV broadcast, Masoud Asadollahi, a former deputy commander of the IRGC Quds Force, made remarks claiming that an Iranian company purchased pagers from a Taiwanese supplier on behalf of Hezbollah, which has since sparked controversy and denials.

“They (Hezbollah) already had thousands of pagers...but three to four thousand new pagers were needed. They asked an Iranian company to place the order. Hezbollah said they could not make the purchase as it would raise suspicions. The company negotiated with a famous Taiwanese brand that used to produce pagers and placed an order for 5,000 pagers. The pagers were delivered to the Iranian company. They were then given to Hezbollah,” said Asadollahi.

The devices later exploded in September, killing at least 42 Hezbollah-affiliated people and injuring over 3,000 in what has been described as Hezbollah's most significant security breach since its conflict with Israel escalated in October 2023.

Many questions were raised about how Israel had been able to rig the devices, while some Israeli reports said that the pager deal had been handled by a Mossad front company.

Asadollahi’s comments quickly went viral, fueling speculation across media outlets. However, just an hour after his remarks, the same state TV channel issued a denial.

Noor News, a website outlet closely affiliated with Iran's Supreme National Security Council, also posted a tweet on Saturday refuting Asadollahi’s claims.

"The incorrect statements made by an expert on IRIB have ignited new speculations surrounding the incident. Iranian companies had no role in the purchase, transport, or distribution of the pagers," the tweet stated.

Tasnim News Agency, another IRGC-affiliated Tehran website, published a report attempting to clarify the situation. It cited Hezbollah’s technical committee, which investigated the explosions and concluded that Israeli intelligence had infiltrated the supply chain through a shell company posing as the Taiwanese supplier. According to the report, no Iranian individuals or companies were found to be involved.

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Reza Sadr Al-Hosseini, an expert on West Asian affairs, further downplayed Asadollahi’s remarks “The pagers were neither manufactured in Iran nor purchased by any Iranian companies, and no Iranian individuals were involved in the entire process," he said during an interview with the IRGC-linked Fars website. He also added that many of the pagers had not yet been distributed and that those affected by the explosions included ordinary citizens who had bought the devices from local markets.

The explosions, which targeted thousands of handheld pagers and walkie-talkies, were a coordinated attack linked to Israeli intelligence. Hezbollah’s switch to pagers in early 2024 followed concerns that Israel had compromised its cell phone network.

With both Iranian officials and media figures divided over the extent of Iran’s involvement, the situation remains fraught, particularly as tensions in the region continue to simmer.

According to the sources, “the Iranian communication, primarily addressed to Israel in an indirect manner, indicates that Tehran would be prepared to overlook a limited Israeli strike and refrain from retaliation, despite the implied threat.”

The sources further explained that the real concern lies in the latter part of the message, where Iran warns that “Tehran would have no alternative but to respond decisively, crossing previously established red lines, should it face a significant strike aimed at its critical oil infrastructure or nuclear energy facilities.”

Iran’s government is reportedly highly nervous, engaging in urgent diplomatic efforts with Middle Eastern countries to assess whether they can limit the scope of Israel’s potential response to its missile attack earlier this month, according to sources familiar with the matter cited by CNN.

The sources indicate that Tehran’s anxiety stems from uncertainty over whether the US can persuade Israel not to target Iranian nuclear sites and oil facilities. They also highlight concerns about the weakening of Hezbollah, Iran’s key proxy in the region, which has been significantly affected by recent Israeli military operations.

US-based analyst Alex Vatanka told Iran International's Eye for Iran podcast this week that the Islamic Republic is extremely concerned about an attack on its nuclear facilities, because the atomic program is its only major accomplishment in 45 years.

Iran, anticipating a retaliatory strike from Israel, has been urging its Arab neighbors not to permit Israel to use their airspace, two Arab diplomats told NBC News on Friday.

“The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is not interested in being caught in a crossfire,” one diplomat said. “Our focus has been on de-escalation.”

Many Arab nations, including Jordan and the UAE, host US bases and critical oil facilities, raising regional concerns that these sites could become targets. However, the second diplomat noted that it was unlikely any Arab nation would agree to allow Israel to use its airspace for a strike on Iran.

Earlier in the week reports emerged that regional countries and the United States were discussion an overall ceasefire deal, but the US State Department denied these reports on Wednesday. “There isn’t such a plan or proposal to my awareness. I obviously can’t speak to what other countries may or may not be developing on their own, which is not to say that it’s happening, but certainly no one has reached out to the United States about such a proposal, and we’re not in talks with any countries about such a proposal," the Department spokesperson said.