Talks To End US Military Presence In Iraq May Last Until US Election

Published Monday, the report says the state in Iran has undergone only a single supreme leader transition in its 45-year history and is mired by “elite factionalism.”

Khamenei –who will be 85 next month– has held the ostensibly elected position by a small group of clerics since 1989. He still seems to have a tight grip on power, despite widespread discontent in the country over corruption, injustice, antediluvian social restrictions, and what many people see as utter incompetence in solving the array of issues they face.

“Iran’s economy continues to struggle amidst high inflation,” reads the 2024 US intelligence community report. ”Most wages are unable to keep pace with the higher prices, leading to declines in households’ spending power.”

But these don’t seem to affect Ali Khamenei who ignores or demonizes the dissenting populace, speaking and tending only to his shrinking group of loyal supporters who prop up the regime by brute force.

Many experts believe that it’s only a matter of time before the regime and its supreme leader come up against another round of widespread protest, like the ones that shook Iran in 2022 after a young woman called Mahsa Amini was stopped on the street for her ‘improper’ outfit and later died in hospital due to a head injury she had sustained in custody.

The ensuing protests –in which more than 550 civilians were killed and at least 20,000 arrested– widened the rift between the regime and the people, leading to an almost complete rupture, illustrated by an historically low turnout in the most recent parliamentary elections that were held early March.

Facing a crisis of legitimacy in Iran, the supreme leader seems to have turned his focus outwards, acting as the leader of non-Iranian armed groups fighting against his most favorite enemies: the US and Israel.

“The resistance is still standing strong and will rub the nose of the Zionists to the ground,” Khamenei said Tuesday, meeting the Quran enthusiasts on the eve of Ramadan –the Muslim month of fasting and self-reflection.

Curiously, his words seemed to be in line with Israel’s assessment that there may be an “increase in terror during Ramadan”, especially in the West Bank. “Iran is working to up the severity of attacks by smuggling in many weapons,” Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant said Monday in a meeting with Israel’s elite Duvdevan unit.

Iran’s regional ambitions and adventures have also been reflected at length in the US intelligence community’s annual report.

“Iran will remain a threat to Israel and US allies and interests in the region well after the Gaza conflict,” the Threat Assessment reads, “and probably will continue arming and aiding its allies to threaten the United States as well as backing Hamas and others who seek to block a peace settlement between Israel and the Palestinians.”

“While Iran will remain careful to avoid a direct conflict with either Israel or the United States, it nonetheless enabled scores of militia rocket, missile, and UAV attacks against US forces in Iraq and Syria; Hizballah exchanges of fire with Israel on the north border with Lebanon; and Houthi missile and UAV attacks, both on Israel directly and on international commercial shipping transiting the Red Sea.”

The report continues: “Tehran will try to leverage recent military successes through its emboldened threat network, diplomatic gains, its expanded nuclear program, and its military sales to advance its ambitions, including by trying to further bolster ties with Moscow.”

In an interview with Faraz Daily, Zarif said the question of the Taliban's legitimacy in Afghanistan remains a highly debated issue both domestically and internationally. He added that “if Iran remains passive in the face of regional dynamics involving the United States, Russia, China, and Pakistan, the matter of Taliban legitimacy could escalate into both an opportunity and a threat for the Islamic Republic.”

He further stated that should the Taliban establish legitimate rule in Afghanistan, Iran would ultimately need to cooperate with its neighbor.

Zarif's remarks come in the wake of his previous welcoming of the Taliban delegation in 2021, where he hailed them expressing solidarity with their fight against "foreign" occupiers.

Tensions persist between Iran and the Taliban, particularly regarding water issues. An Iranian parliamentary delegation's visit to Kabul in August aimed to address concerns about the Taliban's alleged obstruction of the Helmand River flow, affecting Iran's Sistan and Baluchestan region. The Taliban has denied the allegations, exacerbating the water crisis dispute.

In January, the Taliban's foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, visited Iran and advocated for increased economic collaboration. Muttaqi met with economic activists from Iran and Afghanistan, urging Iranian traders to capitalize on opportunities in the Afghan market.

Nevertheless, critics within Iran have raised concerns about the government's open borders policy, speculating about potential hidden agendas. Some suggest that authorities might be facilitating illegal Afghan immigration to address population decline or to strengthen the military by recruiting young Shiite Hazara Afghans.

The sanctions were imposed in coordination with Bahrain's government and allege that the targeted individuals "materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of" al-Ashtar Brigades.

The US action, taken in coordination with the Kingdom of Bahrain, underscores our collective commitment to disrupting Iran’s destabilizing forces and threats, particularly those which threaten our partners in the region and around the world,” Brian Nelson, US under secretary of the Treasury for terrorism and financial intelligence, said in a statement.

The United States has been taking action against Iran-backed groups in the Middle East to reduce Tehran's influence in the region and to isolate its affiliates. It designated al-Ashtar Brigades a foreign terrorist organization in 2018.

In 2018, the government of Bahrain charged numerous individuals due to terrorism-related activities. A number of these individuals fled Bahrain to evade prison sentences and settled in Iran, which has long supported and continues to serve as a safe haven for terrorist groups.

In recent weeks, Washington and Tehran have also been at odds over the conflict in Gaza and its implications in the region with Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen disrupting commercial shipping in the Red Sea and the US carrying out strikes against them.

(With reporting by Reuters)

Italian authorities have detained three Palestinians believed to be affiliated with the Al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade, a designated terror group by the US and EU, for allegedly planning assaults on civilian and military targets in Europe.

In October, Israeli intelligence chief David Barnea revealed that Mossad and intelligence agencies abroad had foiled 27 attacks on Jewish and Israeli figures over the last year.

In an undisclosed investigation last December, authorities in Austria and Bosnia apprehended two groups of Afghan and Syrian refugees in possession of weapons, including Kalashnikov assault rifles and pistols. Investigators found images of Jewish and Israeli targets in Europe on the suspects’ phones, the latest in a series of Iran-backed plots against Jewish and Israeli targets abroad.

In a recent case uncovered by Swedish authorities, Iranian agents posing as refugees planned the assassination of prominent Jewish leaders in Sweden, leading to their arrest and subsequent deportation.

German intelligence has warned of heightened risks, particularly regarding threats against Jewish and Israeli targets, with extremist groups exploiting the conflict in Gaza for propaganda, recruitment, and fundraising.

Recent raids in Germany and the Netherlands reveal a shift towards plotting attacks within Europe, with concerns raised about the potential exploitation of refugee flows by terror organizations.

Dubbed "Maritime Security Belt – 2024," the joint exercise is scheduled to take place from March 11 to 15 in the waters near the Gulf of Oman.

China deployed its 45th escort task force, comprising the guided-missile destroyer Urumqi, guided-missile frigate Linyi, and comprehensive supply ship Dongpinghu.

The drills occur against a backdrop of escalating tensions in the Red Sea, following drone and missile attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen on international and commercial shipping.

While the US-led coalition has responded with counterstrikes against the militant group on one of the world’s most critical trade routes, China, stationed near the Red Sea in Djibouti, has refrained from officially condemning the attacks.

Meanwhile, Russia's Pacific fleet, led by the Varyag guided missile cruiser and Marshal Shaposhnikov frigate, has arrived at Iran’s Chabahar port to participate in the joint drill.

The Russian defense ministry stated that the exercise will involve ships, boats, and naval aviation from Iran and China, with representatives from several other countries acting as observers.

Reports indicate the participation of more than 10 Iranian Navy vessels and three helicopters in the trilateral naval drill. The joint exercise follows the Maritime Security Belt of last year which featured a similar five-day drill between China, Russia, and Iran in the Arabian Sea.