Dissenting Clerics And Politicians Question Iran's Elections

A survey by the Netherlands-based Gamaan institute collected information from 58,015 Iranian residents over an eight-day period from January 31 to February 7. Titled “Iranians’ Attitudes Toward the 2024 Elections,” the survey targeted people aged 19 and above, a sample from 90% of the country's literate adult population. 

Several balancing techniques were used to ensure that the demographics and characteristics of the sample closely mirror those of the population, but the survey was conducted via a specialized platform for sampling on the internet, which is not openly accessible to all Iranians. Although such methods help mitigate the risk of bias in the results, the sample may not accurately represent the population as most people who use censorship circumvention tools to access the internet are critical of the regime. 

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The survey by the non-profit research foundation provides a nuanced understanding of voter sentiments and preferences as the nation approaches a pivotal moment in its political trajectory, the first election after the 2022 popular uprising. The nationwide protests, ignited by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, were the boldest challenge the regime witnessed since its establishment in 1979. 

While a staggering 77 percent of respondents expressed their intention not to participate in the upcoming elections, eight percent of respondents remain undecided, while only around 15 percent expressed a definite intention to vote on March 1. 

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Underlining deep skepticism towards the efficacy of the electoral process in effecting meaningful change within the country, the survey revealed that approximately 38 percent of respondents were unaware of the exact date of the upcoming elections. 

Additionally, 39 percent of those who voted in the previous round of parliamentary elections in 2019 do not intend to vote this year. Among people who are legally allowed to vote for the first time, 65 percent expressed their disinclination towards participating in the upcoming polls.

On SUnday, Iran's ruler, Ali Khamenei, made a fervent appeal for voter turnout in the March 1 elections, amidst indications of a potential low participation rate, signaling a declining legitimacy.

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A sobering finding was the high number of people who would vote against the Islamic Republic in case of a referendum. In a hypothetical plebiscite with the question “Islamic Republic: Yes or No?” around 75 percent would vote “No,” 16 percent “Yes,” and about nine percent are unsure.

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The survey also delved into Iranians' perspectives on alternative avenues for effecting societal change, contrasting electoral participation with participation in protests. Notably, approximately one-third of respondents (33 percent) considered participation in protests as a more effective means of effecting change, while around 13 percent viewed electoral participation as preferable. Additionally, around one-third of respondents (33%) expressed skepticism towards the efficacy of both methods in catalyzing meaningful change within the nation.

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Replying to a question about their political orientation, 40 percent of the participants favored overthrowing the Islamic Republic as a precondition for any change and 25 percent voted for structural transformations and a transition from the Islamic Republic, while 11 percent supported preserving the principles and values of the Islamic Republic regime. Nine percent of the respondents expressed support for gradual reforms within the framework of the Islamic Republic system and 14 percent did not identify with any of these options.

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The survey also explored Iranians' attitudes towards the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. Responses indicated varying perceptions regarding the primary instigator of the conflict, which started after Tehran-backed Islamist militia Hamas invaded Israel and killed 1,200 people on October 7. Approximately 35% attributed the blame to Hamas, 20% to Israel, and 31% believed both parties were responsible. 

Reports say the disruptions have led to decreased internet access speed, exacerbating concerns over online censorship and surveillance in Iran.

The latest bans come amid a broader crackdown on internet freedom activists, with reports indicating the detention of several individuals engaged in advocating for unrestricted access to online content.

Among the detained activists, Youssef Ghobadi's unofficial detention has sparked widespread outcry, along with the arrest of another activist known as "Segaro," who was active on the X platform. The two had been working to develop and distribute circumvention tools such as VPNs to help Iranian citizens bypass internet censorship.

The crackdown aligns with legal measures announced by the Iranian judiciary aiming to penalize individuals involved in the VPN industry, allowing internet users to bypass state sanctioned bans.

Last year, Iran's judiciary announced its intention to punish unauthorized sellers and distributors of VPNs and other such tools based on Article 753 of the Islamic Penal Code. According to the article, the "production, dissemination, distribution, making available, or trading of data, software, or any type of electronic tool solely for the purpose of committing cybercrimes" is considered a crime. 

This comes as various evidence points to the existence of a government-led VPN mafia in Iran. Iranian MPs have accused the government of being involved in financially benefiting from internet censorship and the companies producing censorship circumvention tools like VPNs.

Among those is Jalal Rashidi Kouchi who estimated that the financial turnover of VPN sellers in Iran amounts to approximately 800 million to 1 billion dollars annually.

The United Nations secretary general Antonio Guterres told a press conference in Doha on Monday that he will begin consultations on the appointment of a UN envoy to coordinate engagement between Afghanistan's Taliban and the international community.

Antonio Guterres said that Taliban representatives did not accept an invitation to a meeting of international envoys to Afghanistan that he convened in Doha on Sunday and Monday.

Diplomatic sources indicate that Tehran believes such efforts will reduce its influence with the Taliban in Afghanistan and boost US influence.

Afghanistan International, the sister broadcaster to Iran International, asked Iran’s representative, Hassan Kazemi Qomi, if Tehran was working against the goals of the Doha meeting. Qomi responded that the Islamic Republic of Iran engages in efforts that “benefit the Afghan people.”

Many international and non-governmental organizations and activists have attended the two-day meeting in Qatar. Guterres held closed-door meetings with diplomats and organizations to consult on prospects of improving the situation in Afghanistan and relations with Kabul.

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The Taliban government is largely unrecognized in the world, but it seems in no hurry to gain international acceptance.

The Taliban have refused the invitation from the UN Department of Political Affairs and Peacebuilding (DPPA) to attend the gathering. While Iran sent a representative, Russia has also refused to attend on the request of the Taliban.

Iran’s clerical regime and the Taliban have had mixed relations since 2021, when the US-supported government fell in Kabul and the militant group took over Afghanistan. Border clashes, a water dispute and million of Afghan refugees crossing the border into Iran have marked their attempts to foster relations.

Amid impasse on these issues, a 30-member Taliban “economic delegation” visited Iran in November. The delegation held talks with Iranian authorities on trade, transit, transportation, infrastructure, and railways, as well as regional development and the issue of the growing number of Afghan migrants in Iran.

The Afghan delegation was led by Abdul Ghani Baradar, First Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs of Afghanistan and a co-founder of the Taliban along with Mullah Omar.

Amid the escalating Hamas-Israel conflict, the visit by the Afghan delegation was also be related to security issues. Baradar also held a meeting with Iran’s top security chief Ali-Akbar Ahmadian, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and a close aide to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. "Afghanistan will not pose a threat to any of its neighbors," the Taliban official said according to IRNA.

Tehran has been urging internal reconciliation in Afghanistan between the Taliban, which heavily represent the Pashtuns in the country and Persian-speaking ethnic groups such as the Hazara. However, the Taliban reject Tehran’s call insisting that they are the government, and everyone should fall in line.

The aim of UN’s DPPA is to reintegrate Afghanistan into the world community with the objective of a country “at peace with itself and its neighbors, fully reintegrated into the international community, and meeting international obligations.”

Speaking to Reuters after he briefed EU foreign ministers on the subject, the head of the UN's nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi, said that while the pace of uranium enrichment had slowed slightly since the end of last year, Iran was still enriching at an elevated rate of around 7 kg of uranium per month to 60% purity.

Enrichment to 60% brings uranium close to weapons grade, and is not necessary for commercial use in nuclear power production. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons but no other state has enriched to that level without producing them.

Under a defunct 2015 agreement with world powers, Iran can enrich uranium only to 3.67%. After then-President Donald Trump pulled the US out of that deal in 2018 and re-imposed sanctions, Iran breached and moved well beyond the deal's nuclear restrictions.

Between June and November last year, Iran slowed down the enrichment to 3 kg per month, but jumped back up to a rate of 9 kg at the end of the year, the watchdog, known as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), previously reported.

The increase came soon after Tehran barred a third of the IAEA's core inspections team, including the most experienced, from taking part in agreed monitoring of the enrichment process.

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"This slowdown, speedup thing is like a cycle that for me does not alter the fundamental trend, which is a trend of constant increase in inventory of highly enriched uranium," said Grossi.

A spokesperson for Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation was not immediately available for comment.

The IAEA warned at the end of 2023 that Tehran already had enough material to make three nuclear bombs if it enriches the material now at 60% to beyond 60%.

"There is a concerning rhetoric, you may have heard high officials in Iran saying they have all the elements for a nuclear weapon lately," Grossi said.

He said the concern was all the higher because of what he termed current circumstances in the Middle East, a reference to tensions over Israel's war with Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza.

"We seem to be drifting apart... Iran says they are not getting incentives from the West, but I find this logic very complicated to understand because they should work with us... It should never be contingent on economic or other incentives."

Before visiting Tehran, Grossi is to fly to Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss Iran and the Middle East, along with Ukraine.

Russia is a signatory of the 2015 deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), alongside the US, China, France, Britain and Germany. The deal lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear activities.

"Russia has a role to play on Iran. It has played a role in the past as a JCPOA country and in the current circumstances where JCPOA is all but disintegrated, something must fill the void," he said.

Ukraine

Grossi said he saw a decrease in military operations around the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine, the biggest nuclear power plant in Europe.

Fears of a serious nuclear incident were high when Russian forces took over the facility in 2022 and again following the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam last year.

"There hasn't been a militarization, any deployment of heavy artillery," he said, adding that nearby combat zones and recurring blackouts remained a worry.

"The minimum staff required to look after the plant in the current situation is there," he said.

Grossi said the minimum staffing was still met despite about 100 members refusing to sign a new contract with Russia's Rosatom that took over operations of the idled plant in 2022.

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Sanctioning Rosatom

The EU has so far held back on sanctioning Russia's state-owned nuclear firm Rosatom or any of its subsidiaries despite numerous calls to target that industry. Europe still relies heavily on Rosatom which supplies nearly 50% of the world's enriched uranium.

"Many companies in the West depend on Russian supplies - enriched uranium or fuel... The consensus is sanctioning Rosatom would not be realistic and it's impractical. It would put the nuclear industry at a standstill in many countries," Grossi said.

Reducing dependence on Russia's nuclear sector would cost Europe billions, Grossi said, and he saw no immediate shift away. He added that the larger issue was infrastructure and incentives, and projections of rising uranium demand globally.

"Frankly, I see an increased presence of Russian uranium enrichment capabilities in the world rather than a decrease," he said.

(Exclusive reporting by Reuters)

Nasser Kanaani, the spokesperson for Iran's foreign ministry, stated during a weekly briefing on Monday that Tehran views the implementation of a security agreement with Baghdad as beneficial for both countries' security interests.

"We do not see the presence of foreign forces in Iraq as helpful to Iraq's security, and we fundamentally oppose the presence of foreign forces in the region," Kanaani claimed. "We believe they have never been effective in ensuring regional security and, in fact, are detrimental to the security of the region."

Kanaani also expressed support to see the withdrawal of American forces. Iran's proxies in Syria, Yemen and Iraq have launched around 200 attacks on US troops and facilities in the region as retaliation for supporting the right of Israel to defend itself in the wake of the Hamas attacks on October 7.

The US stationed troops in Iraq after the 2003 invasion to combat terrorism and stabilize the country. Their presence continues as part of broader counterterrorism efforts against groups like ISIS, contributing to regional stability. US forces support Iraqi security forces with training, equipment, and advisory assistance to combat terrorism and protect sovereignty.

However, Iran supports proxy militias in Iraq to extend its regional influence and shape Iraqi politics. Viewing the US presence as a threat, Iran backs groups opposing it to undermine American influence and pressure troop withdrawal. Most proxies are Shiite Muslims, aligned with the regime, reflecting Iran's aim to empower Shiite communities and promote its Islamic ideology.

Iraq finds itself caught in the crossfire between the United States and Iran with conflicting interests. Since the US invasion in 2003, Iraq has struggled to maintain stability amidst political turmoil, sectarian violence, and external interference. With Iran exerting considerable influence over Iraqi politics and security through proxies and militias, tensions have escalated as the US and Iran engage in a complex geopolitical struggle for dominance in the region.

The assassination of Iranian Former IRGC Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani by a US drone strike in Baghdad further heightened tensions, pushing Iraq into the center stage of the conflict. Iraqi leaders face the daunting task of balancing their relationships with both the US and Iran while safeguarding their country's sovereignty and stability.

However, the balancing act is increasingly challenging as Iraq risks becoming a battleground for proxy conflicts and retaliation between Tehran and Washington, further exacerbating the already fragile situation in the region.