Iran, Middle East Dictatorships Named As Moscow's ‘Inner Circle’

The former head of the Iranian Parliament's Foreign Relations and National Security Committee anticipates a war in the region with Iran and the US as key players, while Iran's former Ambassador to Norway says the probability of a war between Iran and the United States is very low."

Former lawmaker Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, who is currently teaching international relations at the Tehran University expressed in a January 15 tweet, "There is an unprecedented war looming ahead, unlike anything since World War II. After numerous fruitless visits to Oman [to finalize a nuclear deal], the most practical solution for both Iran and the United States is to return to the negotiation table in Oman." 

However, he noted that the efforts in Oman have been practically abandoned, and diplomats find themselves idle in a region embroiled in conflict.

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Quoting the tweet on the following day, centrist website Entekhab quoted the former lawmaker as also having said that: "If a war breaks out within the next two years, the US is not the only player who will be in control. Despite the 'maximum pressures' Iran is likely to have more manoeuvrability."

He also noted that the Iran-led Resistance Front knows that current developments are not moving in a direction that would serve its interests. Falahatpisheh made the comments after the strikes on a Hamas leader in Lebanon and US strikes on Houthis in Yemen. He said that developments in the region are generally going ahead in the direction envisaged by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and “other Israeli radicals.”

Meanwhile, another Iranian pundit, former diplomat Abdolreza Faraji Rad, who currently teaches geopolitics at Iranian universities, says : "The probability of a war between Iran and the United States is too small, unless a strange development occurs."

He asserted that Netanyahu desires a war between Iran and the United States to serve as the final chapter in the ongoing regional conflict. Falahatpisheh also noted two indicators suggesting an increasing likelihood of implementing Netanyahu's idea. First, there is a resurgence of maximum pressure on Iran. Biden had previously abandoned this approach, but he has now returned to it, with the additional goal of targeting Iran's regional allies. Falahatpisheh remarked, "Given these circumstances, Iran might consider a limited war with the US more preferable than enduring maximum pressure."

Nonetheless, Iran’s former ambassador to Norway Abdolreza Farajirad agreed with Falahatpisheh that Israel has been working hard for three months now to bring about a confrontation between Iran and the United States. Israel still hopes to drag Iran into the tension prevailing between the Houthis and the US in the Red Sea.

He added that the escalation of war in the region and attacks on the forces close to Iran as well as the strikes on Iranian commanders [in Syria] have increased the possibility of a military confrontation between Iran and the United States although both sides have officially declared that they do not intend to get involved in a war with the other side.

Farajirad further mentioned that support for Israel has weakened Biden's position in the US elections and therefore, he is not interested in a war in an election year. As a result, unless something exceptional occurs, there is very little chance of a war between Iran and the United States under the current circumstances.

Ahmad Jannati, Secretary of the Guardian Council, hailed the missile operations, stating, "the recent intelligent and powerful missile operations by the IRGC against terrorist forces once again demonstrate the comprehensive and faith-based prowess of the Islamic Republic."

Vice-President for Parliamentary Affairs, Mohammad Hosseini also said that "the action by the armed forces was very valuable and demonstrated that our words were not merely for appeasing the people."

On Tuesday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed a series of missile and drone operations against Iraq, Pakistan, and Syria. They claimed a “spy headquarters” in Erbil, Kurdistan Region of Iraq, as well as ISIS centers in Syria and Jaish al-Adl militants’ group inside Pakistani territory were targeted.

President Ebrahim Raisi said the attacks were a step towards "tranquility" during the Wednesday cabinet session, though it has inflamed already mounting tensions in the region into new fronts.

The missile strike on Tuesday marked Iran's first significant incursion into Pakistan's sovereign territory. In retaliation for Iran's missile attack, Pakistan targeted several locations inside Iranian territory early on Thursday, resulting in the death of nine, including three women and four children, according to official Iranian news agencies.

The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reported that the men are detained in prisons around the country.

The report emphasizes the involvement of branches 26 and 28 of the Tehran Revolutionary Court, led by Judges Iman Afshari and Mohammad Moghiseh, in issuing death sentences for eight of the individuals in two separate cases.

Charges against them include allegations of "insurgency, corruption on earth, membership in opposition parties, and collaboration with foreign countries." Despite repeated assertions of the baselessness of the accusations in letters published by human rights organizations in recent years, the prisoners now find themselves on death row.

HRANA, after scrutinizing the current status of the 12 prisoners, has declared that the report illustrates a "repetitive and alarming pattern of human rights violations in Iran." The human rights organization condemns instances of confessions obtained under torture as “blatant injustices and clear violations of the fundamental rights of these individuals.”

The organization additionally emphasized, "In terms of access to their chosen legal representation, these prisoners have never effectively exercised this right, and their trials have been short and riddled with numerous flaws, indicative of their deprivation of fair trial proceedings."

As the regime struggles to contain dissent, hundreds of Iranians were killed last year, many of whom were political prisoners, with a spike in executions for drug related offences.

Ashtiani, echoing sentiments from other Iranian officials, commented on the Houthi actions, stating, "The Yemenis' opposition to the passage of ships bound for Israel resonates with people worldwide. The action by the Yemenis is a reflection of global desires, as they align with the aspirations of people worldwide. The Yemenis are moving in the direction of the world's wishes, undoubtedly achieving victory, and we commend their efforts."

In a speech on Tuesday, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei applauded the Houthi rebels for striking a blow to what he referred to as the "vital arteries of Israel." The Shiite Houthi group, known as Ansarullah, has received substantial financial and military support from the Islamic Republic over the years.

Despite accusations of supporting Houthi rebels, Iran's Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, recently rejected such claims. In an interview with CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos, he stated that individuals from Yemen and other regional countries defending the Palestinians are acting independently. Amir-Abdollahian claimed that Iran, while having supported the group militarily and financially for years, does not control their actions.

The Houthi attacks on global shipping, including vessels linked to the United States and Israel, have escalated since November in the wake of the Gaza war. The Houthi blockade aims to force a ceasefire on Israel's retaliatory attacks for the October 7invasion of Israel by Hamas, killing 1,200 mostly civilians and the kidnapping of over 250 more.

During a press briefing, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller condemned the Iranian actions, emphasizing the United States' commitment to peace and stability in the region.

“We do condemn those strikes. We’ve seen Iran violate the sovereign borders of three of its neighbors in just the past couple of days,” Miller stated in Washington. “Certainly, we always want to see peace and stability maintained, especially in this region, where it’s been the focus of our diplomatic efforts since October 7th.”

The condemnation follows Pakistan's announcement that Iran violated its airspace, resulting in an attack on a border village that claimed the lives of two children and left three women injured.

The Iranian assault, reportedly targeting the Pakistan headquarters of Jaish Al-Adl, a group labeled as a "terrorist organization" by Iran since its inception in 2012, utilized both missiles and drones.

In response to the Iranian strike, Pakistan launched airstrikes against several locations in southeastern Iran early Thursday.

The deputy governor general of the restive Sistan and Baluchestan province told Iranian state TV that airstrikes carried out by Pakistan targeted a border village, killing three women and four children, all non-Iranian citizens.

Pakistan's Foreign Ministry announced in a statement that the country had undertaken "a series of highly coordinated and specifically targeted precision military strikes against terrorist hideouts in Sistan and Baluchistan province of Iran."

Pakistan earlier took diplomatic measures, recalling its ambassador from Iran and preventing Tehran's envoy from returning to Islamabad.