Secret Report Reveals Khamenei's Pessimism Over Iran Protests

In a speech to the Revolutionary Guards’ Basiji militia members Saturday, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who had so far not acknowledged the serious challenge the protest movement poses to his rule, confirmed his fears by trying to boost the morale of his loyalists and exhorted them “never to lose hope under any circumstances.”

Khamenei also told the chief of police recently, “Don’t let your morale drop,” according to the leaked audio file of a recent insiders’ meeting focusing on the protests.

Regime propaganda is increasingly proving inept and easy to counter and disprove by the popular opposition whose only platform for expression is social media. The said audio file seems to confirm that protesters have gained the upper hand in what the speaker, deputy commander of the paramilitary Basij Qasem Qoreyshi, refers to as “media war”.

The state had banked, for instance, on World Cup football victories to cast a normal, happy image of the society, but last week when the state media tried to make the win against Wales into a big celebration, many chose to follow the social media campaigns to disown the national team and stayed home even in areas where past celebrations were always the biggest. Photos of riot police cheering in their full gear and parading on their motorbikes in the streets served as proof of the point that the team represented “them”, not “us”, many said.

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Authorities have waged a campaign of disinformation for years and a host of fake accounts to counter opponents’ social media activities and campaigns, to sow discord among them, and to spy on them. This tactic succeeded somehow at first, but it seems that they’ve been found out and some fake accounts are now being more carefully considered. Many are quickly losing followers they had managed to lure with content that sometimes looked the most aggressive against the regime.

Facts also seem to have become more and more difficult to hide and distort as individuals and families are taking strength from the growth of the movement. The public eventually finds out every time when other citizens are killed, injured, or arrested, and do not believe when the authorities deny responsibility.

Nearly 450 protesters have been killed but the state not only has not taken responsibility for even one case, but has also cast the blame on others, even protesters themselves. Such incidents have only resulted in greater anger among citizens and more power to the protest movement.

The outbreak of unrest could have been possibly prevented if the death of the 22-year-old Mahsa Amini which sparked the protests could have been hidden from the public. But her family refused to remain silent.

As a result, few believe the official account when Atefeh Na’ami, 37, was found a few days ago in the balcony of her apartment under a blanket with a gas pipe near her mouth.

Authorities say she committed suicide but her family who calls the regime and its officials “occupiers” insist she “gave her life for freedom”. According to her brother, security forces buried her quietly with only a few female members of the family present.

The grievances of the Iranian public are not limited to lack of freedom or social issues, as the slogans chanted by protesters may suggest. What probably causes the greatest concern to the authorities is that protests have not yet become as extensive in impoverished areas where the 2019 deadly protests were the most intense.

In the leaked audio file one of the participants in the meeting quotes the secretary of the supreme national security council, Ali Shamkhani, as saying that 70 percent of Iranians believe their living conditions are fast deteriorating.

The Iranian national soccer team once again sang along with the Islamic Republic’s anthem before the match against the US team, a gesture that will further discredit them in the eyes of Iranians opposed to the ruling theocracy. 

Many Iranians have been urging members of the team to show solidarity with people who have been protesting against the regime since mid-September following the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, and sided with the Islamic Republic.

Both US and Iran fans were electrified in the stadium, but the American team won a fast and tense game and will the Netherlands on Saturday, December 3.

Following the loss, people poured onto streets in Iranian cities and held celebrations, chanting antigovernment slogans.

The capital Tehran and the nearby city of Karaj, Orumiyeh (Urmia) and Ardabil in the northwest, Dezful and Ahvaz in the southwestern province of Khuzestan, and northern cities of Lahijan and Rasht as well the southern city of Kish and central cities of Zanjan held gatherings, expressing satisfaction that its team failed to use the World Cup as an opportunity to promote regime propaganda. Security forces reportedly attacked the people in the capital Tehran who were out celebrating the team’s loss.

People in Kurdish cities of Sanandaj, Marivan, Mahabad, Javanroud, and Saqqez – the birthplace of Mahsa Amini, whose death in police custody ignited the protests – held celebratory rallies on streets in support of the protests. 

Along with many Iranians who are fed up with the regime’s brutalities and are relieved that the team has been eliminated from the World Cup, US President Joe Biden was also happy after the match. 

Before the match, a group of American fans were seen chanting, "Women, Life, Freedom," the motto of protesters in Iran after Mahsa Amini was killed in 'hijab police' custody in September. 

Singing the so-called national anthem is a key moment for Iranians because it is a symbol of support for the Islamic Republic, which has been using deadly violence against the people for the past 70 days. Like the two earlier matches, the stadium was full of pro-government fans, many of whom were given free tickets and travel expenses to cheer for the Islamic Republic during the game. 

The players remained silent during their opener against England but after the match, people’s reactions on social media and streets indicated that the gesture was not enough to elicit forgiveness for the players, who have lost popularity due to their lack of support for the popular protests. In their second match, the players sang along with the anthem and even celebrated boisterously after scoring goals and winning the match, setting the ground for the world to witness a rift in Iranian society.

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Earlier in the day, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken played down any link between the match and political tensions, expressing hope that the game would "speak for itself."

The national team players, whether they have been threatened to distance themselves from the protests or have opted to stay on the regime's side, no longer represent many of their countrymen. The Iranian squad – nicknamed Team Melli -- needs at least a draw to book a berth for the knockout stage but the Yanks must defeat Iran if they want to keep their hopes alive in the competitions.

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Team Melli 0 - 1 Stars and Stripes

Iranians showed a dull performance in the first half, conceding one goal while they were very lucky that the Americans did not score more.

Videos have already emerged on social media of Iranians celebrating after Christian Pulisic scored the opener for the US.

Iran won its previous match against 10-man Wales 2-0 after its humiliating 6-2 loss against England. The Americans, however, displayed a stable performance in their two earlier matches that ended with a goalless draw against England and a 1-1 tie with Wales.

Citing a source involved in the security of the games, CNN reported Monday that even the families of Team Melli players have been threatened with imprisonment and torture if the players fail to “behave” ahead of the match against the USA. The source added that the players were called to a meeting with members of the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), saying that they were told their families would face “violence and torture” if they did not sing the anthem or if they show any act of protest against the Tehran regime.

Qatar, which has strong ties with Washington and friendly relations with Tehran, has staked its reputation on delivering a smooth World Cup, beefing up security at Iran games and banning items that are used to express solidarity with the antigovernment protests, like Iran's ancient sun and lion flag.

In the third month of the uprising against the Islamic Republic, a new round of strikes has begun in industrial, service, oil and gas sectors.

The organizers of protests said on social media that the workers at oil and gas sector have announced readiness to go on strike at different phases of Kangan and Asaluyeh fields in the Persian Gulf region.

Meanwhile, the employees of Madkoush Pelletizing Company in Bandar Abbas in southern Iran also held a gathering and stopped work to protest inattention to their demands.

Workers at Safe Khodro Car Manufacturing Company as well as drivers and truckers continued their strikes on Tuesday.

Reports from the cities of Shiraz, Esfahan, Sanandaj, Bandar Abbas, etc. show that the drivers are keeping up with their pledge to hold a ten-day strike to cripple the transportation system.

A video received by Iran International shows that a group of nurses at Imam Khomeini Hospital in Tehran stopped working and gathered chanting slogans to claim their rights.

In the meantime, the Oslo-based Human Rights Organization said the number of people killed during anti-government protests in Iran has risen to 448 including 60 children and 29 women.

“In the last week alone, more than 16 people were killed by repressive forces in Iran. Of those, 12 were killed in Kurdish areas,” noted the organization.

Rahman was speaking after the UN Human Rights Council voted November 24, by 25 votes to six with five abstentions, to establish a fact-finding investigation into deadly government violence against protesters.

In an interview with Reuters news agency, the special rapporteur, said he was concerned at a “campaign” of death sentences over recent protests in Iran, which has a high incidence of capital punishment: “I’m afraid that the Iranian regime will react violently to the Human Rights Council resolution and this may trigger more violence and repression on their part.”

According to Norway-based HRANA, November 286, 451 protestors and 60 members of the security forces have been killed in protests since September 17, the day after the killing in custody of Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini. Just over 18,000 people have been arrested. Rahman told Reuters that six of those arrested had this month been sentenced to death.

"Now (authorities) have started a campaign of sentencing (protesters) to death," he added, saying he expected more to be sentenced.

Already, 21 people arrested in the context of the protests face the death penalty, including a woman indicted on "vague and broadly formulated criminal offences", and six have been sentenced this month, Rehman said.

Budget, staff, evidence

The mission set up by the UN vote will have a $3.67 million budget and 15 staff, the news agency reported, but Rahman, who has not been allowed to visit Iran since he was appointed in 2018, did not explain what course of action he intended beyond an aim to “collect, consolidate and analyse evidence.”

Iran this week announced that it will not cooperate with the UN investigation, which means Rehman will continue to be persona non grata.

Rehman said he expected the mission to gather a list of perpetrators to be shared to national and regional legal authorities to “ensure accountability and…provide evidence to the courts and tribunals.”

The special rapporteur therefore appeared to evoke universal justice, under which states or international bodies pursue serious cases – usually crimes against humanity – regardless of where the alleged crime took place.

Universal jurisdiction

In July a court in Sweden sentenced to life imprisonment Hamid Nouri, a former Iranian official, over 1988 prison massacres in Iran, three years after he was arrested after arriving in Stockholm on holiday. In January a German court jailed for life Anwar Raslan, a former Syrian intelligence office earlier granted asylum, for murder and rape of prisoners in Damascus.

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But such successes are rare. Notable failures in universal jurisdiction include Britain’s 1998 arrest under a Spanish warrant of former Chilean dictator Augustine Pinochet and the 2001-3 prosecution in Belgium of former Israeli premier Ariel Sharon over the 1982 massacres in Beirut’s Sabra-Shatila Palestinian camp. The US has generally eschewed universal jurisdiction, refusing to join the International Criminal Court. President Donald Trump in 2019 pardoned three US soldiers implicated in war crimes in Iraq, and President Joe Biden recently granted immunity to Mohammad bin Salman although US intelligence regards the Saudi crown prince as responsible for the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul.

Iranian officials use term “riot” to describe the nationwide antigovernment protests.

Deputy commander of the IRGC Ali Fadavi said those arrested were not only in touch with “Iran International [TV], which is a branch of the enemy's spy services, but also were related to the intelligence and spy services of the United States.”

Iranian officials are frustrated that foreign-based satellite television such as Iran International and BBC Persian beam independent news and views on the ongoing protests. They have also virtually shut down access to the internet to restrict the flow of information.

He made the remarks on Tuesday during a meeting of IRGC commanders but did not provide any evidence to back up his claims.

Last week, Fadavi stated that anti-government unrest in Iran persists because there are protesters who have been “deceived”, presumably by foreigners.

“The IRGC tried to appease and put up with those who were deceived and joined the protests, and that is the reason why the unrest has not ended, otherwise it would not have lasted more than six days,” he had said.

“Deceived” is a term that Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, has used many times to describe the people, especially the young protestors in the streets, emphasizing that the unrest is staged by “foreign enemies.”

Other officials have been repeating Khamenei’s allegations that foreign countries and conspiracies were behind fomenting the protests.