Israel Intel Chief Foresees Iran Enriching Uranium To 90%

Mohammad Eslami, a vice-President and head of the Atomic Energy Agency of Iran, promised Saturday a “firm answer” to Thursday’s United States-sponsored resolution censuring Tehran at the governing board of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Speaking in Esfahan, Eslami evoked the “self-sacrifice” of the 23,000 “martyrs” from the province who died in the 1980-88 war with Iraq.

This was not the only talk this week of war. In a piece headlined ‘The Post Iran nuclear deal world won’t be pretty’ in the influential US magazine Foreign Policy, columnist Anchal Vohra suggested the US, or “the West,” could “even consider direct military intervention” to curb Iran’s nuclear program. Short of that, Vohra wrote, US might be “accelerating” supply to Israel of refueling tankers and other equipment that could assist an Israel strike on Iran.

Incoming Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose government will include members of the Religious Zionism party, will inherit developed plans for attacking Iran, outgoing defense minister Benny Gantz said November 9. Recent reports have suggested the US is opposing the appointment of Religious Zionism leader Bezalel Smotrich to the defense portfolio.

Vohra’s Foreign Policy analysis, which drew on one published by Iran International in September, suggested that steps to pressure Iran, as military preparations were made, might include greater efforts on penalizing Chinese entities importing Iranian oil and petroleum products.

But in an informal survey of analysts, Vohra found little expectation that such steps would change Iran’s approach to the talks, which began April 2021, to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). Tehran has drawn ‘red lines’ that it shows no sign of erasing. These include ‘guarantees’ of economic measures to cushion Iran against the US later leaving a revised agreement, and insisting that the International Atomic Energy drop enquiries into uranium traces found in sites linked to Iran’s nuclear work before 2003.

JCPOA: dead or comatose?

The US argument that such ‘red lines’ go beyond the JCPOA left the analysts surveyed by Vohra divided as the whether the JCPOA was dead or comatose. “While in a deep coma…none of the parties wants to declare it dead, which would be an admission of foreign-policy failure,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, associate fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “It is hard to imagine that the deal could be restored,” said Ali Vaez, senior advisor at the International Crisis Group.

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While President Joe Biden maintains his intention is to work diplomatically to revive the JCPOA – and that he is continuing ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions purely to that end – the Republican Party’s capture of the House of Representatives after the November 8 elections may well see growing Congressional opposition to the 2015 agreement, especially with so much focus on current protests in Iran and on Tehran’s supply of military drones used by Russia in Ukraine.

Vohra suggested that both the US and Iran may feel their leverage is growing. Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi told the United Nations General Assembly in September that Tehran had neutralized ‘maximum pressure’ in many cases. Some Iranian analysts also argue that looming energy shortages due to curbs on Russian exports may incentivize European states to seek JCPOA revival as a way to lift sanctions on Iran’s crude oil.

‘Threat to Europe’

But the European signatories of the JCPOA – France, Germany, and the United Kingdom – as well as the European Union, which has chaired JCPOA revivals talks, are showing greater affinity with the US and a growing reluctance to deal diplomatically with a Tehran linked closer to Russia. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, Friday played down the challenge over energy supplies while arguing that Iran’s “weapons proliferation” was a threat to Europe. 

“It took us too long to understand a very simple fact that while we work to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, we must also focus on other forms of weapons proliferation, from drones to ballistic missiles,” she said. “It is a security risk not just for the Middle East, but for us all.”

Mohammad Eslami, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization said that the resolution will not help solve existing problems and it will draw a strong response from Iran.

“It seems the European troika [UK, France and Germany] and the United States are accustomed to using various methods of pressure, including resolutions and sanctions, and it is clear that such pressures will be ineffective,” added Eslami during a speech in the city of Isfahan.

The IAEA board of governors passed a new resolution Thursday criticizing Iran over insufficient cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Eslami went on to say that Iran’s nuclear program is developing according to the strategic action law of the parliament, and resolutions against Iran will not cause any disruption in the development of these programs. He was referring to a 2020 law that mandated a high degree of uranium enrichment.

Introduced by the United States, and the E3 – France, Germany and the United Kingdom – the resolution called on the Iranian regime to cooperate with the IAEA’s investigation into traces of uranium found at several undeclared sites used two decades ago.

Resolution of the so-called "safeguards" investigations is critical to the UN watchdog, which seeks to ensure parties to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty are not secretly diverting nuclear material which they could use to make a weapon.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Friday said Tehran is teaming up with its biggest ally, Moscow, to destabilize “our global order” by deploying weapons such as drones to Russia.

Speaking at Manama Dialogue conference in Bahrain, she noted that “Several Gulf countries have been warning for years about the risk that Iran feeds rogue nations around the world with drones.”

“It took us too long to understand a very simple fact that while we work to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, we must also focus on other forms of weapons’ proliferation, from drones to ballistic missiles,” added von der Leyen.

“It is a security risk not just for the Middle East, but for us all,” she underlined.

The European Union sanctioned 29 Iranians and three entities Monday over what it said was human rights violations related to suppression of ongoing protests.

A statement issued in Brussels, where foreign ministers met, said the move was over “their role in the death of Mahsa Amini and the violent response to the recent demonstrations in Iran.”

Iranian regime has warned of a “proportionate and firm” response to the EU over these sanctions.

However, von der Leyen hinted at more sanctions, expressing “We are coordinating with partners and allies to take further sanctions against Iran responding to the proliferation of Iranian drones.”

The Islamic Republic has admitted it has provided drones to Russia claiming that they were sent to Russia months before the Ukrainian war.

The motion – drafted by the France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States – focused on uranium traces found in sites used before 2003 but never declared as nuclear-related. Tehran has said the IAEA’s line of questioning came after Israeli allegations made in 2018 and should be dropped as a condition for reviving the lapsed 2015 Iran nuclear agreement.

A US statement said that if Iran failed “to provide the cooperation necessary,” the IAEA governors’ board “will have to be prepared to take further action.” The statement cited an article in the agency statutes that allows for referral to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).

A similar vote passed the 35-member board in June by 30 votes to two, with three abstentions from India, Libya, and Pakistan. Thursday’s motion was backed by 26 member states, with two voting against, five abstentions, and two absent. Mikhail Ulyanov, Russian ambassador to United Nations bodies in Vienna including the IAEA, tweeted that “from the Russian viewpoint” this was “better than in June.”

Russia and China have argued that raising resolutions at the IAEA board harms efforts to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), and will encourage Iranian intransigence. After June’s vote, Iran removed IAEA monitoring equipment including surveillance cameras installed under the JCPOA.

Moscow and Beijing say the primary responsibility for restoring the JCPOA lies with Washington, which unilaterally left the agreement in 2018 and began ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions that prompted Iran by 2019 to expand its nuclear program beyond JCPOA limits.

While the US might succeed at a subsequent board meeting in referring Iran to the UNSC there is scant chance of a repeat of 2006, when Russia and China agreed at the council to the UN sanctions against Iran that were largely lifted in 2015 when the JCPOA was agreed.

Technical meeting in doubt

A ‘technical’ meeting earlier proposed by Iran for later this month to discuss the uranium traces remains in doubt after a statement from Tehran’s nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami Wednesday. IAEA chief Rafael Mariano Grossi has emphasized the importance of restoring fuller IAEA access in Iran, which Tehran has reduced right before the Vienna talks to restore the JCPOA began in April 2021. Grossi is also insisting Iran is obliged to explain the uranium traces, regardless of the JCPOA talks, under its basic commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

While the US administration of President Joe Biden took office committed to revive the JCPOA it has failed to agree terms with Iran. Multilateral and bilateral talks lasting 18 months have stalled over which US sanctions contravene the 2015 agreement and whether Iran should have ‘guarantees’ to cushion against a second US withdrawal.

Rob Malley, the US Iran envoy said this week the US had lost focus over the JCPOA because of Iran supplying military drones to Russia and its treatment of domestic protestors. French President Emmanuel Macron Monday, just days after suggesting a ‘revolution’ was underway in Iran, suggested that a wider agreement with Tehran was more feasible than JCPOA restoration, so rejecting the view of the JCPOA as a first step to wider progress but itself a valuable non-proliferation measure.

IAEA chief Rafael Mariano Grossi said last week Iran had proposed a visit by senior agency officials before the end of November. It was unclear whether Eslami, in remarks reported by state media, was suggesting that no agreement had been reached on a precise remit for discussions, or whether Iran had withdrawn the proposal given the resolution critical of Iran moved Wednesday by the United States and three European states at the IAEA quarterly board meeting.

The IAEA has called on Iran to offer ‘credible’ explanations for traces of uranium found at sites linked to nuclear work before 2003. Iran has argued the agency enquiries responded to Israeli allegations made in 2018 and should be shelved to facilitate reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).

Eslami said Iran rejected the resolution – raised by the US, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom – that calls it “essential and urgent” for Tehran to satisfy the agency. When a similar motion overwhelmingly passed the IAEA board in June it was criticized by both Russia and China as unhelpful in 18-month talks to revive the JCPOA, which the US left in 2018.

US special envoy Rob Malley suggested Mondaythat Iran’s supply of military drones to Russia and mistreatment of domestic protestors were both contributing to a US lack on focus on JCPOA talks, but Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Wednesday that Washington was acting hypocritically.

Amir-Abdollahian charged that the US sought to “put pressure” on Iran to “deviate from our red lines” in the talks, and that the latest exchange of messages had been within the previous 72 hours. Iran has insisted that, given the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, it needs ‘guarantees’ against the economic damage a second withdrawal would inflict.

With Malley Monday linking the JCPOA talks to other issues – rejecting the separation on which the 2015 agreement was largely built – the special envoy met Tuesday with his French, German, and UK counterparts in Paris.

While the administration of President Joe Biden came into office pledged to revive the JCPOA it continued the ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions introduced by President Donald Trump on leaving the agreement in 2018. Failure of Washington and Tehran to reach conclusions either in multilateral talks in Vienna – involving China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK, and the US – or in bilateral meetings have seen Iran continue a nuclear expansion that began in 2019 and reduce its cooperation with the IAEA.

Iran now has 3,674kg of enriched uranium, far above the 267kg JCPOA limit, and including 62kg enriched to 60 percent, a relatively short step from the 90 percent considered ‘weapons grade.’ Under the JCPOA it enriched to only 3.67 percent.

Malley said Monday the US would discuss with the Europeans what steps to take should Iran continue this path. He warned there was “no magic in which we will find a new formula.”