Europe Mulls Next Iran Nuclear Moves, US Evokes ‘Other Options’

Behruz Kamalvandi, a top-level official of Iran’s atomic energy organization, was quoted by the Fars news website as saying that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report contained no new points and was a compilation of “playing with words”.

The IAEA issued a report on Wednesday ahead of a meeting of its Board of Governors next week, as part of its quarterly reporting schedule, saying that Iran has continued its non-cooperation with the agency, as it has expanded its uranium enrichment.

Iran's stockpile of 60-percent enriched uranium, close to weapons-grade, has grown to enough, if enriched further, for a nuclear bomb, the IAEA said.

Passing that threshold is a milestone in the unravelling of the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) between Iran and world powers, which capped the purity to which Iran was allowed to enrich uranium at 3.67%, well below the 20% it achieved before the deal and the roughly 90% that is weapons grade.

Iran has more than 3,000 kilograms of enriched fissile material beyond the JCPOA limits and that is another departure from the 2015 agreement which increasingly becomes less relevant.

Kamalvandi also responded to IAEA’s point about not having full access to Iran’s nuclear sites by saying that “The reestablishment of the previous verification regime depends on other parties discharging their JCPOA obligations.”

Iran began reducing IAEA’s monitoring access to its nuclear installations in February 2021, as the Biden Administration expressed its readiness to negotiate for a return to the 2015 agreement that its predecessor had abandoned in 2018 and imposed sanctions on Iran.

After the US imposed full oil export sanctions on Iran in May 2019, Tehran announced that it would gradually reduce its commitments under the JCPOA and began enriching uranium up to 5 percent. That situation remained in place during the Trump administration, but after Joe Biden won the 2020 election, Iran announced that it was going to ramp up enrichment and reduce IAEA inspections until the US lifts its sanctions.

But Kamalvandi’s statement about monitoring to be restored after the revival of JCPOA sounds as a distant prospect, with the nuclear talks again in a limbo after 17 months of negotiations.

Reports this week indicated that there will be no quick agreement until after the US midterm Congressional elections and perhaps beyond.

Kamalvandi also attacked the international media for highlighting the IAEA report, which he said was misleading and vowed a measured and well-argued response by Iran in next weeks board meeting. The IAEA board of governors composed of more than 30 countries censured Iran on June 8 for lack of cooperation.

In addition to banning IAEA cameras and monitoring equipment in its installations, Iran has also stonewalled in an agency investigation of its pre-2003 undeclared nuclear activities, said to be weapons related. The IAEA in 2019 found traces of uranium at three sites in Iran and demands to know why the fissile material was there and what happened to it. Tehran has given some explanations, but the UN watchdog says these responses were unsatisfactory.

US Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) told our correspondent on Wednesday that “I think there is still a very good chance that we'll get a deal. We are closer than we ever have been before, and the consequences of not reaching a deal are cataclysmic for the US and the Middle East."

About the Israeli efforts to dissuade the US from an agreement with Iran, he said “I'm in constant touch with Israeli embassy. I saw the ambassador before the August break. I disagree with Israeli government's position, but I'm always ready to listen.”

Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) said that “Unfortunately there's always a chance (for a deal with Iran) with the Biden administration. We're totally against it as Republicans, we feel for all the people in the Mideast.”

"I think the only thing they're trying to do is to figure out a way to get Iranian oil to Europe, and if that's the reason, we don't need to be doing it, because it'd put a lot of people in harm's way if Iran gets that nuclear weapon. I don't understand what they're trying to do. But let's wait and see. I hope they continue to have problems with talks to get any kind of deal with Iran," he added.

Ben Cardin (D-MD) told Iran International that “There's some conflicting provisions that have to be resolved before an agreement can take place.”

Iranian political analysts say Tehran's nuclear talks with the United States are likely to be prolonged even until after US elections in November.

Speaking to the conservative Nameh News website in Tehran, Bigdeli said there are two reasons why the negotiations remain inconclusive for a long time.

"One reason is that there are influential groups in Iran and the United States who are against an agreement," he said, adding that "The second reason is that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is exerting pressure on Tehran over safeguard issues while according to Iranian nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami, Tehran is not prepared to show any further flexibility in this regard."

Bigdeli said that the JCPOA is unlikely to be revived without solving these two problems. "In the meantime," he added "Iranian and US negotiators are likely to send messages back and forth as there seems to be no determination, particularly in the West, to revive the 2015 nuclear deal."

He further reiterated that without direct talks between Iran and America, and without the IAEA's final verdict on the safeguards issue, it is unlikely that the two sides can reach an agreement.

Meanwhile, the spokesman for the Iranian government Ali Bahadori Jahromi told reporters in Tehran on Tuesday [September 6] that Iran has never left the negotiations and will never do that in the future. However, he added that "The other side should give up its excessive demands."

Bahadori further said Iran needs reassuring guarantees in the negotiations, the lifting of sanctions should be meaningful and sustainable and political claims about the safeguards should end.

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In another development Iranian political analyst Habibollah Burbur told Nameh News on Tuesday that "No one should fall in love with a new agreement." He added that Iranians should learn to run their country based on what they have, and without any dependency on oil exports."

Burbur added, "We need to convert oil into products that could be sold without fearing the impact of sanctions." In his pessimistic analysis Burbur said: "Westerners can bloc transferring foreign currency to Iran at any given time." He further added that "Since the 1979 revolution, the Americans have always wanted to topple the Islamic Republic, but this is an uncalculated attempt as Iran is being supported by other countries."

Burbur did not name those countries, but Iran has frequently named Russia, China, North Korea and Venezuela as its allies while little is heard from those countries about a military alliance with Iran against the United States or any other country. During the 1980s war between Iran and Iraq, Russia openly supported Iraq against Iran.

Meanwhile, reformist political figure Alimohammad Haghshenas said in an interview with the Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA) on Tuesday that "making an agreement with the United States is a complicated matter and those who make decisions on the matter should be accountable before the next generation of Iranians."

Haghshenas called on Iran's state-owned media including the state television and major news agencies to seek the views of individuals from across the country's political spectrum on the issue of a nuclear agreement with the United States.

He added that governments aligning with various political factions have worked on the nuclear negotiations for many years and all of the political factions should have a say about this matter. He also called on the government not to keep the parliament and political activists in the dark about their measures and decisions about the agreement.

Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the National Security Council in the White House John Kirby said on Tuesday “Suffice to say there's still gaps, and we're just not there yet. That doesn't mean that we're less committed to a deal. It doesn't mean that we don't still want to see if we can get there; we do. But there's still quite a bit of work for our diplomats to do.”

Kirby added, "We're not going to talk about hypotheticals here with respect to Iran. The president has been clear: You will not allow Iran to achieve a nuclear weapons capability," he continued. "[Biden] believes strongly that the best way to do that is through diplomacy."

Kirby had sounded more optimistic last month, saying that Iran had made some concessions “that allowed us to get to where we are in the process … so that’s a positive step forward,” noting that the sides are “closer now than we were even just a couple of weeks ago.” 

Also on Wednesday, The Times of Israel’s Hebrew sister site Zman Yisrael reported that based on the message that was conveyed to Prime Minister Yair Lapid in his recent conversations with US President Joe Biden, a new nuclear deal between Iran and world powers is off the table. The nuclear agreement “has been scrapped and will not be signed, at least in the foreseeable future.” the report said.

Chief of staff of the armed forces, Gen. Mohammad Bagheri issued a warning on Wednesday to regional countries hosting US troops and bases on social media, reported by the official government news website IRNA. He said that the “terrorist American armed forces” have reduced forces in the Persian Gulf and have relegated the defense of those dependent on it to “Zionist child-killer army” through CENTCOM.

Bagheri went on to say that Tehran has warned regional countries, meaning Persian Gulf Arab states, to cooperate with Iran for enhancing security, and has told them Iran will expand its air and naval presence and intensify military exercises, including drone and missile drills.

The warning came as indication s emerged that talks to restore the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran might not lead to any results before the US mid-term elections in November and perhaps beyond.

An Israeli media report appearing in Times of Israel on Wednesday said, “A new nuclear deal between Iran and world powers is off the table and will not be signed in the foreseeable future.”

According to the report, Israel’s Prime Minister Yair Lapid received this message from President Joe Biden and other officials in recent days.

If true, this indicates that a shift occurred in the Biden Administrations’ thinking about the 17-month long talks with Iran since it received the latest response from Tehran last week.

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The European Union submitted a compromise text to Iran and the US on August 8, and the two sides responded with their suggestions. The contents were not made public, but the US called the last response from Iran “not constructive.”

Optimism in August that the two sides were inching toward an agreement somewhat dissipated when Iran began insisting on shelving a probe by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) into its pre-2003 undeclared nuclear activities. Tehran also intensified demands for “guarantees”, seemingly about lifting US sanctions and a commitment by Washington to be held responsible for leaving the agreement in the future.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a Tuesday briefing, "The US and its allies are equally preparing for scenarios with or without mutual return to full implementation of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).”

“The US president will only conclude a deal that he determines is in the national security interests of the US," she noted, adding that the ultimate goal is to make sure Iran never acquires nuclear weapons.

Earlier in the day, Prime Minister Yair Lapid said Israel will continue to act in all areas against the revival of the Iran nuclear agreement and the threat posed by the Islamic Republic.

During a visit to Nevatim airbase in southern Israel, which houses the Israeli Air Force’s squadron of F-35 fighter jets, he said it is too soon to know if Israel has succeeded in thwarting the looming nuclear agreement with Iran.

An Al Jazeera TV reporter tweeted Tuesday that a senior E3 official told him, “because of the last Iranian response, there can be no return to the JCPOA before the mid-terms, but there will be no JCPOA to return to after the mid-terms.”

However, a schedule change in Israeli Mossad chief David Barnea’s visit to Washington announced Tuesday is hard to explain. A meeting with Congressional intelligence committees was cancelled while Barnea will only meet Biden administration officials.