The Future Of Iran-EU Trade Is Not Bright

Kamal Kharrazi, head of Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations said on Tuesday that “If Taliban, during their rule provide for the formation of an inclusive government of different minorities, protect the country’s independence and not allow foreign powers to have a presence and influence in the country, they will be embraced by the Islamic resistance front.”

The Islamic resistance front is a reference to an anti-American regional group of forces maintained by the Islamic Republic, including Iraqi Shiite militias, the Lebanese Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis.

Kharrazi in fact appears to be asking the Taliban to join Iran's alliance system in the Middle East, while the new rulers of Afghanistan are closely aligned with Pakistan where they were sheltered for two decades.

Khamenei’s advisor, however, added that “It is too soon to speak about the Taliban movement.” He went on the say that Iran cannot forget the killing of its diplomats in Mazar-e-Sharif in 1998, while both Taliban and Pakistan had assured Tehran about their safety.

Kharrazai’s statement came one day before a meeting of Afghanistan’s neighbors is due to take place in Tehran.

Saeed Khatibzadeh on Tuesday told reporters that foreign ministers of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Pakistan will attend the Wednesday conference of Afghanistan’s neighbors, while China and Russia will take part via video link. The Taliban have not been invited to the meeting.

The spokesman added that Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi is scheduled to address the conference and a letter from the United Nations Secretary Antonio Guterres will be read.

Regarding the absence of the Taliban, Khatibzadeh said that there were many requests from Afghanistan and elsewhere for participation and this will be decided in the next meeting, which will probably take place in Beijing.

Regarding the agenda of the meeting Khatibzadeh told reporters that a unified message should be sent to “inside Afghanistan” that the country cannot be a “place for violence and terror”.

After two major bomb attacks against Afghanistan’s Shiites, Iran has asked the Taliban to protect civilians and strive for including others in the government.

“A peaceful and stable Afghanistan is a partner in regional cooperation. The people of Afghanistan will accept a government that reflects their will,” he said.

Khamenei who was speaking on Prophet Mohammed’s birthday to participants at a recent Islamic unity conference sponsored by Tehran, said that the Americans try to divide Sunnis and Shiites by highlighting their differences, while they are in fact against Islam.

He went on to accuse the United States of sawing discord among Muslims and alleged that recent terror attacks in Afghanistan was sponsored by Washington through the Islamic State group. Iran’s anti-Western leader claimed that the US has acknowledged that they are the ones who have created the extremist Islamic group.

Khamenei also argued that Islam is a “collective and not an individual religion”. He said that secular powers try to portray Islam as a religion for the individual, his beliefs and his conscience. They try to present Islam as a religion at the individual level, while it is in fact a religion pursuing social issues and fundamental human problems, he said.

Khamenei also underlined that Palestine is the most important factor for Islamic unity and criticized Arab countries that have established relations with Israel since 2020.

Tensions between Tehran and Baku, pumped up by media outlets, had appeared to ease since a phone-call between foreign ministers Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and Jeyhun Bayramov on October 13 and this week’s release of two Iranian truck drivers arrested on a transit road.

But Azerbaijani media reported Saturday that six websites − Deyerler (Values), Maide (Blessings), Ahlibeyt (Prophet's Household), Ehlibēt (also Prophet's Household), Shia and Islaminsesi (Voice of Islam) − had been blocked. Baku has not made an official announcement.

Deyerler is edited by Ilgar Ibrahimoglu, the previous imam of Baku's main Friday Mosque. The well-known and openly pro-Iranian imam also heads Defense of Freedom of Religion and Conscience, a non-governmental organization.

The website of the Stockholm-based Aznews (ANT) Television, which supports unity between Azerbaijan and the Azeri area of Iran it calls ‘South Azerbaijan,’ reported that Youtube channels carrying Iranian religious programs had also been blocked.

The Aznews website said Iran was breeding “terrorist groups in various countries under the guise of religion and religious sects to further its ideology.”

The relationship between Baku and Tehran has been fraught since last year’s war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with Tehran uneasy over Azerbaijan’s territorial gains, Baku’s reported military relationship with Israel, and the alleged presence of Sunni militants shipped in from Syria by Turkey. Both Iran and Azerbaijan have recently carried out military maneuvers near the border.

Baku continues to detain four clerics who are members of the Assembly of Clergy of Azerbaijan and who were arrested last month, although it has released Ibrahimoglu, arrested at the same time.

On October 5 the Iranian embassy in Baku said Azerbaijani police had inspected an Iranian mosque in Baku, Iranian Husseiniya, and shut it down. The mosque, which is affiliated to the Iranian embassy, houses the office of Ali-Akbar Ojaghnejad, representative in Azerbaijan of Iranian leader Ali Khamenei.

The Iranian ambassador, Seyed-Abbas Mousavi, later said that the closure had not affected Ojaghnejad’s work, which is conducted in the same building. According to Azeri media, Ojaghnejad has returned to Tehran.

Azerbaijan, which has a population of around 10 million, is majority Shia but religious beliefs waned under decades of Soviet rule. While President Ilham Aliyev comes from a Sunni background, 49 percent of Azerbaijanis surveyed in 2010 by Gallup said religion was not an important part of daily life.

Last year’s war with Armenia stimulated Azeri nationalist sentiment both in terms of affinity with fellow Azaris in Iran, where they make up around 25 percent of the population, and with fellow Turkic peoples stretching from Turkey to the central Asian republics.

Jomhuri Eslami (Islamic Republic), one of Iran’s oldest newspapers, in a commentary Saturday suggested Tehran had decided to join Russia in recognizing the Taliban’s ‘Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’ despite the group’s history of ‘terrorism’ and religious intolerance.

Russia has suggested it would recognize the Taliban if it met several conditions, including forming an ‘inclusive’ government and giving guarantees over human rights. Russia, and other states including China, have held off a decision while keeping diplomatic contact, much as the United States did in reaching its 2020 agreement with the Taliban over US military withdrawal.

The 2020 US-Taliban agreement saw the Taliban commit not to allow operations by militant Sunni groups like the Islamic State (Isis-Daesh). Tehran is likewise concerned over possible infiltration by Sunni militants, especially those linked to Isis and Baluchi separatists.

In a joint statement issued October 20, Russia, China, Iran, India, Pakistan and four central Asia republics – following a meeting of the ‘Moscow Format Consultations on Afghanistan’ established in 2017 – issued a statement viewing the Taliban as the new rulers "irrespective of the official recognition of the new Afghan government by the international community."

100%

Reflecting disquiet in Tehran, a senior official in the Iranian foreign minister criticized "Russia's weak handling"of the Moscow Format talks and suggested the joint statement had not been agreed.

Jomhuri Eslami, which has resisted those in Iran arguing Tehran must deal with Taliban whether it wants to or not, in its commentary Saturday argued the Taliban would eliminate Persian as an official language and remove Shia religious jurisprudence from law, and that it was forcibly evicting Shiite Hazaras from their lands and denying women the chance to study and work. All this, the paper argued, showed the Taliban was not "worthy of recognition."

For Iran, which considers itself the leader of the Shiite world, the suppression of Afghan Shiites is anathema. Human Rights Watch (HRW) this week said that since taking Kabul in August, the Taliban had forcibly evicted thousands of Afghans from their lands.

Sunni-Shia war?

Last week Taliban Spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid expressed hope in an interview with Iran's Hamshahri newspaper that Tehran would soon recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Mujahid said the new rulers in Kabul had good relations with Iran, shared interests in trade and security, and was receiving “Iranian delegations.” He dismissed as propaganda reports of discrimination against Afghanistan's Shiite minority including the Hazaras.

Nour News, a website close to Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani, in a commentary Wednesday said that "acting on the United States' behalf," Isis was trying to discredit Taliban declarations over security, entice a negative reaction from Iran, and fuel a Sunni-Shia war.

Nour cited the recent bombings at Shia mosques in Kunduz and Kandahar, killing at least 90 people, as evidence that Isis aimed at “heightening insecurities and causing ethno-religious conflicts.” Nour called on the Taliban “as promised” to offer support to Shiites taking on security for themselves.

Iran will host its own meeting of foreign ministers of Afghanistan's neighbors in Tehran October 27 and has invited Russia. Khairullah Khairkhwa, the Afghan minister of information, said Thursday that Kabul had yet not decided whether to attend.