Iran judge says asset seizures will weaken diaspora’s anti-regime protests

On Monday, Iran said it would suspend operations against Israel but warned attacks would resume if Israel continued striking Lebanon.

Israel rejected the condition, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accusing Tehran and Hezbollah of trying to create a new equation in which attacks on Israel would no longer carry consequences.

The development has fueled debate over whether the latest ceasefire represents the end of the fighting—or merely the end of its first phase.

A ceasefire tied to Lebanon

For UAE-based analyst Amjad Taha, the answer is straightforward.

"It's a pause rather than a ceasefire or an end of war," he told Iran International.

Taha argues that Tehran's decision to link its ceasefire to Lebanon reveals that the Islamic Republic continues to view regional conflicts through the lens of its proxy network.

"The fact that the Islamic regime right now says it's fighting and its condition in Lebanon ceasefire with its own, it tells us that Iran's, the Islamic Regime still sees Lebanon and other countries as its own proxy and its own extension," he said.

In his view, the current calm risks postponing rather than resolving the underlying conflict.

"If the ceasefire happens right now, we are just postponing another 7th of October-style event, but this time across the Middle East, not just the state of Israel."

Elizabeth Tsurkov, a fellow at the New Lines Institute, sees Iran's Lebanon condition as part of a broader effort to shape the post-war landscape.

"It appears clear that the Iranian regime believes that it won the 40-day war and is therefore trying to establish new rules of the game to project its power and deter Israeli action in Lebanon as well," she said.

Tsurkov also rejected suggestions that apparent tensions between Washington and Jerusalem amount to a coordinated strategy.

"I don't think that this is a matter of bad cop, good cop," she said. "Trump genuinely wants a deal."

Her assessment points to a broader reality emerging from the latest crisis: Lebanon is no longer a separate arena. It has become intertwined with negotiations over Iran, regional deterrence and the future of the ceasefire itself.

A new equation?

The debate over Iran's intentions has exposed sharply different interpretations of the latest escalation. While some see Tehran acting from a position of weakness, others argue it has successfully shaped events since the ceasefire.

Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official, believes Iran has managed to place itself at the center of multiple interconnected disputes.

"The Iranian regime, as of now, has been quite clearly able to dictate the pace," he said.

Melamed argued that Tehran is attempting to connect "the story of the Hormuz Strait, Iran, the nuclear program and the situation in Lebanon," creating additional pressure points for both Washington and Jerusalem.

As the dispute over Lebanon intensified, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi shared an image on X showing the Iranian and Lebanese flags intertwined, reflecting Tehran's position that the two fronts are inseparable.

Still, Melamed cautioned against drawing firm conclusions.

"I think we are at a phase where you could say that, at the same time, the Iranian regime could mark some significant achievements as far as the Iranian regime is concerned," he said, describing the current situation as an "ongoing ping pong game."

Others reject the notion that Iran is acting from a position of confidence.

John Craig, a former US ambassador and senior fellow at the Transatlantic Leadership Network, sees the latest missile attack as an attempt to undermine diplomacy rather than demonstrate strength.

"Iran is desperate to slow/stop any negotiations," Craig said.

He remains skeptical that the current pause will hold.

"Nothing is over," he said. "The IRGC does not want any agreement. Ever."

For military analyst Andrew Fox, the future of the ceasefire may depend less on Tehran and Jerusalem than on developments in Lebanon.

"I think it very much depends on what happens in Lebanon," Fox said.

While describing Israel's latest response as limited compared with the broader war phase, Fox said the underlying conflict remains unresolved.

"It clearly wasn't a full-scale return to combat operations. It was nothing like the scale or intensity of what we saw during the war phase. But it did send a message."

And despite the current lull, he does not believe hostilities have truly ended.

"I don't think it is an end to hostilities," Fox said. "I don't think it is an end to attempts to overthrow the Iranian regime, but I think it will draw a line under this phase."

That may be the clearest point of agreement among analysts. Whether they view Iran as emboldened, opportunistic or desperate, few believe the latest ceasefire has settled the larger struggle.

Trump continues to pursue negotiations with Tehran. Netanyahu has vowed Israel will respond forcefully to future attacks. And Iran has made clear that its restraint is conditional on events beyond its borders.

The missiles may have stopped flying between Iran and Israel. But by tying its ceasefire to Lebanon, Tehran has ensured that the next test of the truce may come not in Tehran or Tel Aviv, but on Israel's northern border.

Officials in Khuzestan province said the facility was hit during Israeli attacks, with reports indicating damage to chlorine-related units and storage facilities. Any prolonged disruption could affect both domestic supply chains and exports from one of Iran's most important petrochemical hubs.

Karoon is located in Mahshahr, home to a concentration of petrochemical facilities that form a major pillar of Iran's non-oil economy.

Links to the IRGC

Karoon is owned by Persian Gulf Petrochemical Industries Company (PGPIC), Iran's largest petrochemical holding group.

The United States sanctioned PGPIC and dozens of affiliated companies in 2019, saying the group generated billions of dollars that helped finance the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and its construction arm, Khatam al-Anbiya.

According to the US Treasury, PGPIC subsidiaries worked with Khatam al-Anbiya through engineering, construction and financing contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Washington said revenue from the petrochemical sector provided an important source of funding for the IRGC's military activities.

The Guards have long maintained a significant presence in Iran's energy and industrial sectors through a network of companies, contractors and affiliated organizations that oversee major infrastructure projects and benefit from export revenues.

Role in missile-related industries

Petrochemical facilities are primarily civilian enterprises, but some of their products can have military applications.

Chemical compounds produced in Mahshahr and other petrochemical centers such as Assaluyeh can be used as precursor materials in the production of propellants and other components associated with missile programs.

During previous operations targeting industrial facilities in the Mahshahr area, Israel said sites in the region were involved in producing materials used by Iran's missile program.

Israeli military officials said on Monday that one of their objectives was to destroy infrastructure used to manufacture raw materials essential for ballistic missile production.

The dual-use nature of petrochemical production means facilities can simultaneously support civilian industries while supplying materials that may have military applications.

Critical supplier for domestic industry

Despite scrutiny over military links, Karoon remains one of the most important suppliers to Iran's civilian manufacturing sector.

The company is the region's only producer of isocyanates, advanced chemical compounds used in the production of polyurethane materials.

These products serve as the foundation for a wide range of industrial and consumer goods, including insulation, adhesives, coatings, automotive components, footwear, furniture and household appliances.

Karoon receives feedstock such as benzene and toluene from neighboring petrochemical plants and combines them with chlorine, carbon monoxide and hydrogen to produce isocyanates and related products.

The facility's strategic importance increased after the implementation of the HYCO (Hydrogen and Carbon Monoxide) project, which enabled domestic production of carbon monoxide and hydrogen and reduced dependence on imported supplies.

Impact on supply chains and exports

Industry experts say damage to chlorine production units could have consequences beyond the immediate facility.

Chlorine is essential for the production of phosgene, a key intermediate chemical used in manufacturing isocyanates. Any interruption to chlorine supplies can halt downstream production, affecting multiple industries dependent on polyurethane products.

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  Strikes on petrochemical hubs leave Iran short of plastics

The effects could extend throughout the Mahshahr industrial zone, disrupting manufacturers that rely on Karoon's output.

Karoon also serves export markets. The company ships products including aniline to India and sells other chemical products to customers in Turkey, Russia and neighboring countries.

Those exports have helped Iran maintain a regional presence in specialty chemical markets while generating valuable foreign currency earnings.

A strategic target

The strike illustrates how Iran's petrochemical sector occupies a position at the intersection of economic and security concerns.

For Tehran, facilities such as Karoon support industrial self-sufficiency, exports and employment. For Israel and Western governments, parts of the sector are viewed as supporting broader military and missile-related capabilities through financial links to the IRGC and the production of dual-use materials.

As a result, major petrochemical complexes have become increasingly significant targets in a confrontation that extends well beyond the battlefield and into the infrastructure underpinning Iran's economy and defense industries.

The platform, called IranSync, synchronizes the screens of mobile phones held by spectators to create large coordinated images and messages across sections of a stadium, Salar Gholami told Iran International.

“We created a system that allows people to display unified images and messages without bringing physical banners or flags into the stadium,” Gholami said.

According to Gholami, users do not need to install an application and can access the service through the IranSync website. After participants register, the system generates a design based on the number of people taking part, allowing neighboring phone screens to form a larger image.

Gholami said the platform can be used to display the Lion and Sun flag as well as slogans including “Free Iran,” “Reza Pahlavi,” and “Regime Change for Iran.”

Alternatives after FIFA restrictions

The launch follows efforts by some members of the Iranian diaspora, particularly in the United States, to challenge FIFA’s decision to bar the Lion and Sun flag from World Cup venues and to find alternative ways of displaying the symbol during matches.

Gholami said the project aims to attract international media attention to developments in Iran and prevent the issue from being overshadowed by coverage of the World Cup.

“The presence of international media at the World Cup creates an opportunity to amplify the demands of protesters and bring the voice of the Iranian people to a global audience,” he said.

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  Iran’s lion-and-sun flag at center of FIFA row before 2026 World Cup

The 2026 World Cup will be hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico, with Iran’s matches scheduled to take place in the United States.

Gholami argued that supporters of the Islamic Republic could seek to use the tournament to improve the regime’s international image, adding that Iranian communities abroad should organize their own visibility campaigns.

During the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, the Islamic Republic sought to prevent the voices of protesters in the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising from being heard in stadiums by sending large numbers of its supporters to the country.

The United States has issued visas to Iran's national football team players and coaching staff, but some members of the delegation have not been granted entry permits.

Videos received by Iran International showed students in the northeastern city of Mashhad chanting: “We have heard many promises, but seen no result,” and “If our problem is not solved, there will be protests every day.”

Other videos from the central city of Isfahan showed students chanting: “Student, shout, cry out for your rights.”

The protests, which began in late May in western and central Iran, initially focused on how final exams were being held. They later grew into a broader demand to cancel the fixed impact of 11th-grade GPA scores on the national university entrance exam, or at least change it to a positive-only effect.

Iran’s national university entrance exam, known as the konkur, is a highly competitive test that plays a major role in determining access to higher education and future career prospects.

Students say repeated changes to exam rules, the role of school grades in admissions and the way final exams are being held have placed heavy psychological and academic pressure on them.

Abdolvahed Fayyazi, a member of parliament’s Education and Research Committee, told the semi-official ILNA news agency that responsibility for the entrance exam decision lies with the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution, a powerful state body that sets major education and cultural policies in Iran.

He said the council continued to insist on including school grades in the entrance exam process.

Fayyazi urged protesting students to “give up the protests and go study,” saying “there is no other choice and protests are useless.”

The protests have reached at least 20 provinces, including Tehran, Isfahan, Khuzestan, Fars, Razavi Khorasan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Gilan, Lorestan, Mazandaran and Yazd.

They have also spread to cities including Tehran, Isfahan, Mashhad, Shahrekord, Khorramabad, Arak, Qom, Yazd and Saveh.

Reports from some cities said security forces confronted protesters, injuring several students and arresting at least one person.

Students had previously gathered outside the Education Department in Mashhad, demanding the resignation of Abdolhossein Khosropanah, secretary of the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution.

Khosropanah defended the policy in an interview with Iranian state television on Sunday, saying members of the council had reached a consensus on keeping the decisive role of 11th- and 12th-grade academic records in the 2026 entrance exam.

He also accused “most” of the protesters of being linked to the “konkur mafia,” a term Iranian officials use to refer to private tutoring and exam-preparation businesses that profit from the university entrance system.

The remarks drew criticism from students, who said the accusation ignored the real concerns of pupils facing repeated policy changes, exam pressure and uncertainty over their educational future.

Khosropanah acknowledged that some demands, including those of repeat entrance exam candidates and students seeking to improve their grades, could not be dismissed.

He said proposals including more opportunities to improve grades, single-subject grade improvement and changes to exam scheduling would be reviewed.

Students say their generation has already faced school closures, online learning, social crises and repeated changes to education rules, and should not have to pay the price for sudden and contradictory decisions by officials.

They have said the protests will continue until their demands are addressed.

The delay has become one of the most unusual and politically sensitive aspects of Iran's post-war transition. While senior military commanders and officials killed in the same conflict have already been buried, repeated promises of a massive funeral for Khamenei have so far gone unfulfilled.

Tehran municipal officials spoke of plans for a multi-day funeral procession later this month. Ceremonies, they said, are expected to span several cities before Khamenei's final burial in the religious city of Mashhad.

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  Iranians react with joy and disbelief to Khamenei's death

The prolonged delay sits awkwardly alongside Shi'ite religious tradition, which generally favors the prompt burial of the dead. Classical jurisprudence encourages hastening burial except in exceptional circumstances, such as uncertainty over death or concerns about preserving life. Several contemporary clerics have similarly argued that unnecessary delays should be avoided if they risk disrespecting the deceased.

The absence of a funeral has fueled speculation about the condition of Khamenei's remains following the strike that killed him. Iranian media reports about other officials who died in the same attack described bodies recovered weeks later and identified only through DNA testing after suffering extensive damage.

Officials have released no information about the condition or location of Khamenei's remains.

Security concerns and a missing successor

The unanswered questions surrounding the burial have merged with another mystery: the continued absence of Khamenei's successor.

Mojtaba Khamenei, who assumed leadership following his father's death, has not appeared publicly since the attack. Officials insist he survived and suffered only minor injuries, but reports and rumors about more serious wounds have persisted.

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If alive and active, Mojtaba Khamenei would rank among Israel's most prominent targets. Any large public appearance could present significant security risks.

That reality complicates what would ordinarily be a defining moment for a new leader. A funeral for a supreme leader is not merely a religious ceremony; it is also a display of political continuity. The absence of the successor from such an event would be difficult to explain, while his appearance could expose him to risks the authorities may be unwilling to accept.

The politics of a funeral

There is also a political dimension to the delay. The Islamic Republic has a long history of using such ceremonies for political messaging. An example was the funeral of Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of the Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force.

The funeral procession, held for several days, passed through Kadhimiya, Baghdad, Najaf, Karbala, Ahvaz, Mashhad, Tehran and Qom before Soleimani was ultimately buried in Kerman.

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  Why Khamenei’s funeral keeps changing

State media and Iranian officials said millions of people attended the ceremonies and repeatedly used images from the events in official messaging.

The publicity surrounding the funeral largely overlooked the deaths of 56 mourners, who were killed in a stampede during the burial ceremony in Kerman.

Officials have shown they hope for a similarly turnout for Khamenei. Yet organizing a funeral on that scale in the aftermath of war presents obvious logistical and security challenges.

For now, the result is an unusual limbo. One hundred days after Khamenei's death, Iran has formally selected a successor but has yet to publicly introduce him. It has promised a historic farewell for its former leader but has yet to hold one. And it continues to confront questions that neither official statements nor public ceremonies have managed to answer.